USMC0311

@gehrenbergdfs Brunson is better. He elevates everyone around him even when he isn’t scoring. Wemby doesn’t do that. Every game he didn’t score they lost. He doesn’t even have much assists.

Is Wemby now the unanimous best player in the NBA?

@1769_alex Give it a few months, 100% chance it will happen between now and May of next year there will be at least a 3-5% dip.

We’d be lucky to even get 3-5% dip and I’m being realistic here. $SPX

@VolSignals It doesn’t seem like it’s ever going down, instead it is a market of tweets and blindly following what the president says. Fundamentals don’t seem to matter anymore.

In 2018 I became increasingly obsessed with a prediction I felt certain about Based on what I was seeing as a MM, closely tracking customer flows (and incompetency of institutional position “management”)… I saw the market destined to go off the rails over the next decade, in both directions, in bull-whip fashion, until ultimately collapsing dramatically… turning sentiment against systematic quant strategies and triggering regulatory overhaul. It’s gamma. …negative gamma, to be clear. Here I use the term broadly- if the manager of the product must buy more assets when they go up and sell when they go down… that’s negative gamma from the market-wide perspective. And as everything begins to exhibit shades of this behavior… -you better prepare.

@alphaticaio June/July beginning of a pullback before we can go higher

🚨🚨🚨 Regime Change Warning | MAY 29 🚨🚨🚨 We just updated our 25-year study of SPY-TLT correlation. What we just found is unprecedented. The 60-day SPY-TLT correlation is +0.553. The 100th percentile. The highest reading in the dataset. Stocks and bonds have never moved this closely together for this long. What the data says about forward returns in this regime: When SPY-TLT correlation is in the top 5%, SPY 20-day forward returns average -0.12% with a 53.8% win rate. Barely a coin flip. Drawdown risk rises to 44% chance of a 3%+ pullback within 20 days versus 31% baseline. The risk/reward shifts. This doesn't mean sell. It means the single macro factor driving both stocks and bonds higher (oil down, rates down, equities up) is creating a regime where diversification has disappeared. When both assets are the same trade, the unwind hits both simultaneously. The mechanics still say higher short-term. $1.12B GEX. 9.7% floor. 183M dealer delta. All magnets. The structure is bullish. But the correlation data says the environment has changed. The forward returns are the weakest of any regime. The drawdown risk is elevated. Both are true at the same time. If you followed our "How to Read Alphatica" post: x.com/alphaticaio/st… this is exactly that framework in action: the short-term structure points up while the medium-term risk profile has shifted. The clock starts Monday. The date to watch: June 16-18. Warsh's first FOMC plus monthly OpEx. That's the event that could break the correlation regime. The mechanics say hold. The correlation says be aware. Your timeframe determines which one matters to you. $SPY $TLT $QQQ $VIX

@1769_alex I got out with profit, not making any trades until the announcement comes out later

Oh yeah just when $SPY was about to break LOD, tide starts to look bearish, Trump made the tweet LOL you cannot make this up.

@1769_alex Those 5/29 200 calls were cheap. Hope you got in on them.

What $SNOW up 26% AH on ER

@WallstFendi Instead of the SPX, you should look at other tickets. SNOW 200 call for 5/29 paid out. 1.70 a contract, going to be up huge tomorrow.

Good recovery from the low today. was waiting till power hour but price drifting higher on low avg volume. Basically flat for the day. Let’s see if 7530 can break out before close. (100k in 30day challenge spy spx) $SPY $SPX

@1769_alex Exactly, not the best idea chasing the ath now, trade other tickers then come back when that pullback happens.

@devildog738 yes gap below then ath

People dont realize the lower $SPY goes the better for bulls.

@alphaticaio Looking at all the people chasing all time highs means a short term top is coming and we need it for a healthy market.

SPX GEX LEVELS: May 27 New all-time high. The max magnet shifted to 7,600 for the first time. And the 7,500 level that was the target for three weeks just became support. 🚨🚨Tomorrow's expected range: 7,475 – 7,600. Grinding toward the 7,600 magnet. The 7,500 support holds dips. SPX closed at 7,519.34, up 46 points. The Hormuz deal progress and the oil repricing did exactly what Sunday night's post predicted, the energy shock unwinding lifted the entire market. WTI's 5.8% drop gave equities the tailwind they've been waiting for since March. Net GEX rebuilt to +$1.29B from $1.08B. The structure above spot is the deepest we've ever recorded at these levels. The 7,500 strike carries +$184M and spot just cleared it, that level flipped from target to support in a single session. The 7,600 max magnet at +$165M is now the gravitational target, 81 points above. Between them, the 7,525 (+$142M), 7,550 (+$130M), and 7,575 (+$100M) strikes create a dense corridor of positive gamma. The path from 7,500 to 7,600 is paved with stabilizing force. The center of gravity shifted to 7,629, 1.5% above spot. Every strike from 7,400 to 7,800 is positive gamma. The magnets ladder through 7,650 (+$74M), 7,700 (+$70M), 7,800 (+$53M). No accelerators appear above spot until 7,800+. One thing to watch. Volume P/C hit 1.51, the heaviest put-buying session since the May 12 CPI scare. At all-time highs. That's not bearish, it's institutional hedging. The smart money is riding the rally but buying protection simultaneously. They're not selling into strength, they're insuring it. The difference matters. The GEX flip cluster is fragmented with 21 levels, the highest at 7,489, 30 points below. That cushion is thin for an ATH session. But the 7,500 strike at +$184M sits just below the flip. If spot dips through 7,489, the +$184M magnet at 7,500 catches it immediately. That's a self-correcting structure: the flip is thin but the magnet below it is the heaviest single strike in the profile. Below 7,400, the zone from 7,000 to 7,375 is entirely negative gamma. The 7,200 accelerator at -$22M and the 7,000 accelerator at -$21M remain loaded. But those levels are 120+ points below, distant enough that they don't threaten the current regime. The buy signals are winding down. Inflation matrix: day 14 of 20. CPI hot selloff edge: day 15 of 20. Both still active but entering the final week of their windows. The structural tailwind is shifting from signal-driven to flow-driven as the Hormuz deal progress, Warsh's dovish-leaning first week, and NVDA's earnings momentum carry the market. $SPX $SPY

@1769_alex It’s for next year, of course we will hit those targets by then

🚨 MASSIVE Whale Bets on $SPY & $QQQ 🚨 - $59M on $SPY 830c (Mar 2027) - $55M on $SPY 810c (Mar 2027) - $45M on $QQQ 900c (Jun 2027) Over $150M+ in premium flowing into deep, long-dated calls. Is this another "Trump play"? Peace deal incoming?

@1769_alex You should try to place a trade, none of my orders are going through

@devildog738 yes you can lol

$SPX is tradable tonight FYI

@alphaticaio @longshotism I’ve been following you guys and waiting for your platform to go live but I’m confused about some of your posts. What is your target for a pullback? It doesn’t make sense for the market to keep going straight up.

@longshotism We think we already had the pullback. We are expecting something smaller though. This is Trumps second term. The data is not the same on a second term presidency and the midterm cycle. We see the narrative on Fintwit for midterms. It’s not right lol. 😂 $SPY

BREAKING: Equity allocation just hit 65.7%. That is an all-time record. 🚨🚨POSITIONING CROWDING ALERT: When positioning reaches these extremes, our data shows global equities have averaged a 2-3% pullback within 2-3 months. Maximum drawdowns have reached 15-20%. Current AI concentration surpasses every prior market peak on record. Cash allocation dropped to 9.9%. All-time low. Bond allocation at 17.3%, lowest since March 2022. The positioning data is one-sided: 1. Tech stocks absorbed $9 billion in a single week 2. 73% of fund managers say "long global semis" is the most crowded trade 3. Levered ETF AUM hit $203 billion, up 50% since March 4. AI concentration near 48% of the market Meanwhile everything else is bleeding: EM equities: -$7.9B (six straight weeks) European equities: -$2.3B (six straight weeks) Financials: -$2.4B (largest outflow in 10 weeks) Materials: -$2.9B (largest in 8 weeks) The 30-year Treasury hit 5.18% this week. Post-2007 high. Long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.9%. The S&P is up 8 straight weeks. Everyone is in the same trade. The bond market is not. The data is telling you where the crowding is. $SMH $NVDA $SPY $QQQ

@AaronRentfrew It’s going to pop, then end the week lower, try to get in at the top with some puts either 0DTE or further out. People were just waiting to sell the news

S&P500 perps going nuts. 100pt pop and drop.

@shentrades Most likely a spike up then people are going to sell the news, probably end the day around 7500 or so and the week probably back down around 7450-7500. Nothing else to hold up the market until the space x ipo

$spy 760

@1769_alex It doesn’t matter, best thing he can do is drag it out, once there is a resolution then the market will sell the news, also oil won’t magically normalize and prices won’t automatically drop. That will cause the market to go down, right now everyone is waiting to sell the news

This time the US-Iran ceasefire + nuclear talks actually feel more legit, just my gut feelings NFA 🤷 Trump’s midterms are ~5 months out and gas is killing him politically (up $1.40+ from pre-conflict). He wants lower prices fast + a peace win. Strait of Hormuz reopening + uranium/sanctions deals line up with real incentives now. Trump’s recent comments saying the market’s heading to new ATHs. Lower oil + de-escalation could rip it higher. Politics and timing make this round different. Let’s see if it sticks. 🚀 $SPY $QQQ $SPX

@alphaticaio This will probably keep the markets up and sideways until July or August when the quarter 2 earnings reports come in and the oil shock hits the consumers. The bond market is not going to let the Fed ignore it either.

🚨BREAKING: The US and Iran are closing in on a deal that extends the ceasefire by 60 days. If this sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve tracked this cycle since April 7. Ceasefire. Collapse. Rejection. New talks. Rejection. Attack called off. New proposal. Extension. The headline changes. The Strait stays closed. Wake us up when Hormuz reopens. $SPY $QQQ $VIX $USO

@alphaticaio Me and I’m sure a lot of people appreciate what you are doing in the meantime. Excited to see how the platform will look like when it launches

@devildog738 That's not us, though. We've sold our institutional signals for anywhere from $15K to $20K per quarter. It's easier today to produce them on a much larger scale and sell the same signals cheaper to the masses.

We won’t be posting updates like this again until we are in our platform. If you were bold enough to jump into this trade, hats off to you. If you’re in profit, now would be a good time to take some off the table. Or, if you’re feeling like a real gambler, you may want to hold until 3:55 PM today. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. GOOD LUCK $SPY $QQQ $VIX