Ender
6.6K posts

Ender
@enderplayerone
slowly walking down the hall, faster than a canonball
Tham gia Haziran 2011
843 Đang theo dõi141 Người theo dõi
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Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.
The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code.
But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along.
So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions.
TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.
staysaasy@staysaasy
The degree to which you are awed by AI is perfectly correlated with how much you use AI to code.
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@robertgraham Very convincing argument. It’s harder to fake coding style than writing style.
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Hi. Professional C/C++ programmer here. The open-source code I can find written by Adam Back and Satoshi Nakamoto don't look remotely similar.
Back's code looks typical of academic Unix programmers who also hack their code to run on Windows.
Satoshi code was written by a professional Windows programmer who also wrote for Unix.
Stylistically, they look nothing alike. There's not enough time between 2005 when I can find the newest Adam Back and January 2009 when Satoshi published Bitcoin/0.1 to account for the change. Both are perfectly competent programmers, but stylistically, they are completely different.
The NYTimes tried to compare their English language in posts/emails. I'm compare their C/C++ language in their open-source code. The NYTimes merely points out they both use C++ as if that's another corroborating detail, when the actual code seems to disqualify Adam Back.
The New York Times@nytimes
Bitcoin’s founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, has remained hidden for 17 years. A trail of clues — and a year of digging by our reporter, John Carreyrou — led us to a 55-year-old computer scientist in El Salvador named Adam Back. nyti.ms/4bXWC3V
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it’ll probably be months before we use a model of this level of capability
Chris@chatgpt21
Machines of loving grace coming a little sooner than expected 😅
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@enderplayerone @TheRealAdamG Oh but then I have to pay API. I want to use my codex sub 😅
Anchorage, AK 🇺🇸 English


@malvathar @TheRealAdamG Plus Codex into a gpt-image MCP and you can do this.
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@TheRealAdamG Just tell me I can generate images with Codex and I'll be a happy man.
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@netcapgirl @gabi_imarques Good call. Those hedge fund returns will not be able to make up for the damage to the google brand.
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google shutting down a deepmind hedge fund

Colossus@colossusmag
Hassabis secretly built a hedge fund inside DeepMind trying to beat Jim Simons. Google shut it down.
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@andrewgwils Generative AI and Big Data aren’t just changing the game… they ARE the game. And if you’re not playing, you’re being played. Just saying.
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7/ We've reached an inflection point: @Wired is irreparably broken in its current form. But it doesn’t need to be. It’s time for someone who believes in a role for tech in building a better tomorrow to buy it. Maybe that someone needs to be me. /end
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1/ During college and early in my career, I would absorb @Wired cover-to-cover on my commute. It is such a bummer that in just a decade, a once-great newsroom has deteriorated into publishing speciously-sourced gossip columns that feel like Gawker 2.0. Why is the tech community still interacting with these people?

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@rohanvarma Conversely how easy would it be for a student to start using google once they need it? One can also make the case there is not much urgency there.
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I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately.
Imagine if a student today came out of high school not knowing how to use Google.
Fluency with coding agents like Codex is an asymmetrical advantage today, and hopefully a ubiquitous capability tomorrow.
I’m personally very passionate about ensuring we help schools evolve here. However, if you are a parent, I wouldn’t wait for the systematic change required here.
Jack Altman@jaltma
I hope schools are teaching kids to just sit down with codex / claude code and make stuff.
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the reality is that big tech structurally can't hire the ppl who actually get ai from both a deep tech or a taste perspective, cuz those ppl are founding companies or already have context that makes them too expensive/misaligned with corp incentives.
so you get this adverse selection loop where the available exec pool is ppl who were at other big tech co's & those ppl are just big co peeps through & through (i.e. they will often struggle in any uncertainty or fast pace or lack of resources).
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