Reasonus4

10.8K posts

Reasonus4

Reasonus4

@reasonus4

Analyzing markets, policies and participants.

Los Angeles Tham gia Ağustos 2009
612 Đang theo dõi1.4K Người theo dõi
Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
@calvinfroedge There will be everything you’re saying will occur to some degree. We can’t undue the setup. Retail buying $SPY $QQQ is a “get out of jail free” card for institutions. Scammers & Poors returned 0% for 8months & 0% for 5yrs more at current valuations Retail missed the off-ramp
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🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
I'm not saying that there will be a global famine I'm just saying that the probability of a global famine has never been this high in modern history
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
@saudrahman27 The entire world wants Zionism to die. GCC states have done nothing to stop it. Iran is fighting to stop Israel's genocidal, terrorist activities in the region. Join the right side of history.
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سعود حافظ | Saud Hafiz
#BREAKING: This war needs to stop immediately. The aggression needs to stop immediately. Because everyone knows who is the main beneficiary of this war is, and dragging the whole region into this conflict : Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani.
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
$SPX above 5500 was the blow off top this cycle. it was concentrated in megacaps - even those whose businesses being destroyed globally ( $TSLA ) Even $WMT traded 40 P/E This cycle was a megacap bubble, that has slowly been bursting since Sept 2025. At a certain point, it will drop - there is no pump where there is no value left.
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
$SPX Seeing way too many 20-30% bear market crash calls now yesterday and especially today. A little too many to my liking. Ya'll know if that came to fruition that would essentially take us right back to the April 2025 tariffs crash lows right?! Iono...
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
$MSOS $GTBIF $KWEB... some deep value options. Nothing is manipulated. Retail is simply buying overpriced BS expecting a pump. There is no pump where there is no value. Hence $SPY $QQQ gone nowhere since August 2025. Just buy deep value for a fucking change and all will be fine.
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Crypto Fergani
Crypto Fergani@cryptofergani·
Everything is manipulated… Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Crypto, Stocks, Oil, Fiat. WTF are we even supposed to buy?
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Exec Sum
Exec Sum@exec_sum·
BREAKING: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering hedge fund clients ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market, per BBG
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
$TSLA: 🤯 that any single stock could be overvalued by $1 Trillion. As 🤯 as $MSOS sub $5 when value is a min. $20. Plus now benefitting from fastest growing sector on earth: cannabis beverages. Cannabis beverage sector is living up to “wild” analyst estimates of 60x by 2032 (+140% rev growth from PRIOR quarter as example below). We see THC drinks segment 🚀happening in real time. But we do NOT see TSLA humanoids in every home (In fact, #China winning the #robotics and #AI race). It is common to witness capital misallocation in equities but likely never before has it been as extreme as now - across the board. $GTBIF $TCNNF $CURLF $CRLBF $IWM $SPX $SPY $QQQ
Reasonus4@reasonus4

Most accurate trader I follow made $GTBIF a top Q2 2025 pick. He anticipated $RYM & Senorita acquisitions transformative for GTI. He was right. Cannabis beverage sector = fastest growing market on earth. $RYM reported +140% growth from PRIOR quarter. But $RYM still expensive (# of shares much higher than trading platforms list). But RYM’s hyper growth is free w/ srs of $GTBIF or $MSOS. GTBIF is a rare opp: 👉 Legacy business growing rev (modestly but still growing) 👉 4x CFFO (3x post S3) vs. $SPY 28x 👉 Best BLS sheet in entire sector 👉 49% interest in RYM’s hyper growth is FREE 👉 Proven management Part of @real_techvested bullish thesis is GTI’s bls sheet more flush than competitors, GTI can outbid for additional brands or scale winning portfolio faster. GTBIF is a helluva buy. A compounder with a (not so secret) growth engine for free. $20 value available for $6.50 is nuts. Won’t last. $MSOS is full of such cashcows w/software margins + rapid growth for free. Ex: $CURLF expanding margins due to rapid international growth (+68% rev growth YOY). Ex: $TCNNF 60% margin, 3x CFFO Don’t underestimate @rivers_kim - will reward shareholders w/winning brands in bev. race (THC drinks only hyper growth sector of next decade). $MSOS is full of such unique cashcows w/rapid growth options for free. Thus a $20 min stock based solely on CFFO and much higher on FWD basis. Rescheduling less relevant by the day - real bullish thesis: intl + beverage hyper growth - trends which MSOS constituents benefitting from. $CRLBF $SNDL $VRNOF $CBSTF $CGC $TLRY $GLASF $HITI $IWM

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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
$SPY $SPX behold the dumbest blow off top of all time - all it did was permit S&P insiders to dumb stock at lofty premiums. S&P will touchdown 5500. Negative real returns (inflation) since August 2025. Even an extremely under followed $MSOS is +85% in that time (post July lows). Something shifted in July/August 2025. Apparently, value was back in fashion. Scammers & Poors (S&P) is living up to its name. Not looking at megacaps until SPX sub 6k - another barometer is $TSLA. Overvalued by $1 TRILLION. Until then, not wasting my time bc there is no pump where there is no value. $QQQ $VOO $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA $GOOGL $NVDA
Barchart@Barchart

BREAKING 🚨: S&P 500 $SPX headed for its first close below the 200-day moving average since May 📉📉

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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
@business Of course. #Israel could care less what is in the best interest of #Trump or Americans. Israel is the modern Nazi party: ethno-supremacists leading to genocide (as ethno-supremacism always does).
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Bloomberg@business·
Israeli officials are riding out a rare public rebuke from US President Donald Trump over the handling of the Iran war, a break from previously tight military coordination between the two allies bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
@Barchart $SPX above 5500 was the blow off top. no upside. All downside risk.
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Barchart
Barchart@Barchart·
BREAKING 🚨: S&P 500 $SPX headed for its first close below the 200-day moving average since May 📉📉
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
@shanaka86 This guy is being paid by Zionists. I swear. Every post.
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
JUST IN: An Iranian ballistic missile impacted the Bazan oil refinery complex in Haifa today. The IDF described the damage as consistent with shrapnel from an intercepted projectile or limited direct impact. Iran claimed a direct hit. Fires were reported. Damage was minor. No injuries. No major leaks. Pipelines and transmission lines took shrapnel. Firefighters contained the blaze. Israel’s largest refinery, roughly 197,000 barrels per day and 40 percent of national refining capacity, remains operational. Compare what Iran did to Israel’s energy infrastructure with what Iran did to everyone else’s. UAE. Shah and Habshan. Zero production. Full suspension. Kuwait. Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah. Both refineries burning. Operations suspended. Qatar. Ras Laffan. Extensive damage. Force majeure. Seventeen percent of global LNG capacity impaired for three to five years. Saudi Arabia. Eastern Province refineries and SAMREF at Yanbu hit. Twenty percent output cuts. Bahrain. Partial force majeure. Iraq. Southern fields cut 70 percent. Power grid losing 4,500 megawatts. Six Gulf states. Devastating, sustained, infrastructure-destroying strikes on civilian energy facilities that supply the world. One Israeli refinery. Minor damage. Contained fires. No outage. The disparity is the doctrine. Iran has launched ten or more major barrages against Israel since February 28. Hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, and Beersheba. Israel’s multi-layered air defence architecture, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow, has intercepted the overwhelming majority. Fourteen to nineteen Israeli civilians have been killed. Roughly 3,500 injured. The Tel Aviv Savidor train station was hit. Residential buildings damaged. Power outages occurred. The human cost is real and the civilian suffering is genuine. But the energy infrastructure is intact. Haifa is operational. The Ashdod refinery is undamaged. Israeli power generation continues. Desalination plants run. The lights are on. Now look at the Gulf. UAE desalination is threatened by the Shah shutdown. Qatar’s entire LNG export system faces half a decade of impaired production. Kuwait’s two largest refineries are simultaneously compromised. Iraq cannot keep its electricity running because the gas that powered it came from the same South Pars field that Israel struck. Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, the world’s most concentrated oil production zone, absorbed direct hits. The Mosaic Doctrine was written to inflict maximum economic damage on the countries that hosted the war, not the country that launched it. Israel’s air defences intercept 90 to 96 percent of incoming projectiles. Gulf air defences are effective but the targets are larger, softer, and more numerous. A refinery spans kilometres. An LNG train is a precision-engineered cryogenic facility that shatters under blast overpressure. A gas processing plant operating at thousands of pounds per square inch cannot absorb shrapnel the way a military hardpoint can. Iran knows it cannot destroy Israeli energy infrastructure through Israel’s air defences. So it destroys everyone else’s. The Gulf states hosted the bases. They are paying the energy bill. Israel launched the strikes. Its refinery took minor shrapnel. The market reads “Haifa refinery hit” and spikes Brent three to five percent intraday. The actual supply impact is near zero because the refinery is still running. The Gulf supply impact is catastrophic and worsening daily. The headline and the molecule tell opposite stories. The headline says Israel is under energy attack. The molecule says the Gulf is. Iran’s message is not aimed at Israel’s refinery. It is aimed at the six governments whose refineries are actually destroyed. The message: your ally’s air defences protect its energy. Your air defences do not protect yours. The arrangement costs you everything and costs them shrapnel. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
$VIX down $USO down $SPY down $GLD down $BTC down $UUP down Am I missing anything?
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
@Mayhem4Markets Too many think the spike in #OIL will be transitory. $SPY above 600 is based on assuming a quick solution to crisis. Most traders under 35 have not seen a crisis money printing can’t solve. This is it.
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Markets & Mayhem
Markets & Mayhem@Mayhem4Markets·
It's been an amazing journey, friends. I want to thank you all for hanging out with me as we descend into the depths of Hell. 🤣
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
Then how is $MSOS +90% off July lows? The flaw in “Jane st controls the universe” argument is that, while an entity could theoretically manipulate pride day to day, they cannot week to week or month over month. Ultimately, share scarcity or availability determines price. Moreover, the unfounded belief itself in Jane street’s omnipotence is main reason $20 stock is trading sub $5.
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SemiEvolvedMamal
SemiEvolvedMamal@SemiEvolvedM·
US cannabis (MSO) investing 101: Every inflow into $MSOS leads to buying in the underlying, causing a quick pop The Jane Sts of the world then short & spoof these (otc has low liquidity), causing a fast, unexplainable drop This won't end until uplisting S3 needed
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
Rationality returning? $MSOS $SPY $NVDA $GTBIF $TCNNF $CRLBF
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
$SPY above 5500 = blow off top. Every variable for megacaps deteriorated since. $QQQ $AAPL $TSLA $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $VOO $DIA $META
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Reasonus4
Reasonus4@reasonus4·
@Stocktwits Not all of us. Some avoided buying the $SPY $QQQ top. Most overvalued asset class in the world = inflation wiping you out. Even under followed $MSOS is +80% in time Scammers & Poors was 0%. Every other asset class deep value and thus beating S&P. No pump where no value.
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Stocktwits
Stocktwits@Stocktwits·
Traders cooking dinner in 2026
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
Trump wants no more strikes on Iranian energy strikes, per WSJ
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