Shepherd

#RacistInChief instructed his #ProudBoys to “stand by”. POTUS is Commander in Chief of terrorist white nationalists. #Debates2020

@CarOnPolymarket @LisaLi561 Why would they refund ppl who lost the bet? No offense but you seem to have trouble with reality and logic.

@LisaLi561 They made a lot of money from trading fees on this market. Let's see if they refund the Yes holders

Yesterday I lost $300 on my first bet ever on Kalshi. And I got scammed. And I should have won. So I immediately withdrew all my money from the site and blocked it. I was betting on the Bernie Sanders mention market. I bet on a few words he said during the live event. Most of the words were trading at 90%, but Kalshi resolved EVERY SINGLE word to NO. Why? I don' t know. The event was live, Bernie said the words and traders bought Yes. Kalshi has not said a single word since. 24 hours later I still don't know why I lost. I hear Bernie clearly say the words I bet on. A total of $3M+ was wagered on this event, people lost millions against reality. Why is Kalshi doing these sketchy things?

@Billbrowder 2/n .. thousands of mid and long range drones for themselves and Ukraine every month that, but they still are not. They have been losing to Putin for four years and too stupid to do anything about.

@Billbrowder 1/n But, democratic leaders won’t risk high gasoline prices. Ukraine & allies can target the shadow fleet tho. Europe cannot give missiles because they don’t have any nor make any aside from a the few SCALPs every month that resumed in July. So, allies should be making..

Impose sanctions on refineries that buy Russian crude oil to end war, says Bill Browder theguardian.com/business/2026/…

@gnoble79 Good stuff. But, META achieved what it can from ad related improvements. Finito. Meanwhile LLM monetization is at stage 7 of 100.

Microsoft just lost $357 billion in a single day... While Meta gained $170 billion. Both companies are spending over $100 billion on AI this year. One got punished. One got rewarded. The difference tells you everything about where this market is heading: Microsoft reported Wednesday. Beat on revenue. Beat on earnings. Revenue up 17%. EPS up 24%. But the stock dropped 10% - worst decline since March 2020. Why? Azure cloud growth came in at 39%. The Street wanted 39.4%. A miss of 0.4 percentage points erased a third of a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, capex jumped 89% year-over-year to $37.5B in a single quarter. CFO Amy Hood admitted two-thirds went to "short-lived assets" - GPUs that depreciate fast. And Microsoft also said they'll remain "capacity constrained through at least the end of our fiscal year." In other words: "We're spending $72B in six months and STILL can't build data centers fast enough." But that's not the real problem... The real problem is what's happening inside Microsoft's spending. They're not just building infrastructure for Azure customers. They're allocating scarce GPUs to their own products: M365 Copilot, GitHub Copilot, internal R&D. Hood said they must "balance Azure revenue growth with growing needs across first-party apps and AI solutions." Microsoft is competing with its own cloud customers for compute capacity. If they'd allocated all new GPUs to Azure, growth would've exceeded 40%. Instead, they're betting their own AI products will generate more value than selling raw compute. That bet hasn't paid off yet. And 45% of their $625B backlog is tied to ONE customer: OpenAI. Now compare that to Meta: Revenue beat. Earnings beat. Guidance crushed expectations. And they announced $115-135B in AI capex for 2026 - nearly DOUBLE what they spent in 2025. The stock surged 10%. Why the opposite reaction? Meta is seeing immediate returns. Ad impressions up 18%. Average price per ad up 6%. Revenue up 24% year-over-year. Their AI investment is already showing up in the core business TODAY. Better ad targeting. Better recommendations. Better engagement. Q1 revenue guidance came in at $53.5-56.5B - Wall Street expected $51.4B. That's 30% revenue growth ACCELERATION. When you have 3.58B daily active users, AI improvements compound immediately. Zuckerberg called it a "major AI acceleration" and Wall Street didn't care about the $135B spending number. Because they can SEE the connection between spending and revenue. Here's what matters: The hyperscalers are now spending over $600B combined on AI infrastructure in 2026. AI assets depreciate at roughly 20% per year. The five hyperscalers face annual depreciation expenses approaching $400B - MORE than their combined profits in 2025. This is the biggest capital spending cycle in history. And we just entered Phase 3, where AI-enabled revenue models must finally prove their worth. The market stopped rewarding spending. It's rewarding RETURNS. Meta showed returns. Microsoft showed constraints and margin compression. That's why we saw a $527B swing between two companies reporting on the same day. My read: The easy money in the AI trade is over. From here, execution matters more than ambition. Companies that can turn infrastructure spending into measurable productivity gains get rewarded. Companies still building without clear payback get punished - even when they beat estimates. Microsoft isn't a bad company. It's a company that bet big on AI infrastructure and is now scrambling to show ROI before margins collapse further. Meta isn't necessarily a better AI company. It just has a business model where AI improvements translate directly to revenue growth. For investors, the lesson is clear: The AI infrastructure phase is maturing. Winners from here will be companies with clear paths from spending to earnings. Not companies asking you to trust the process while margins compress.

@hamids Well, Elon is a grifter, bigot, narcissist, and all POS. And think that answers your questions. Took ppl forever to realize this. Many don’t care and just think hecis cool because he is rich. Some r into the tech story which is really a grift story. $tsla

As much as I love the $TSLA Model S & X, I would no longer recommend that anybody buy these products as they will almost certainly have horrific resale values after they are discontinued. Elon's decision to cancel the S&X is purely because of sales of these vehicles dropping like a tank. $RIVN R1S was already beating Model X sales, which was shocking. Additionally, even though Elon said there are no plans to cancel the Cybertruck, we know sales of Cybertruck have been lackluster - nowhere near the expectations of it becoming the best-selling truck or even the 250K unit capacity they built in Austin. They appear to be selling at 1/10th the expected numbers. I'm just floored right now. My favorite car/tech company appears to be abandoning cars and doing so before it has built new businesses. - No Roadster 2 after 8 years (promised in 2020) - No Semi after 8 years (also promised in 2020) - No $25,000 low-priced car - No 500 Mile Cybertruck, no range-extender, 2x starting price What happened to this company? What happens if Robotaxis take longer than expected or are not received as expected? What happens if Optimus, which is now delayed until at least 2027 is a dud-timus? But even if Robotaxi and Optimus are eventual successes, what happens between now and then? Does revenue fall even further in 2026 and 2027? I was expecting single-digit growth, but even that might not happen!

@tsybka Kids dying, ppl getting diseases we best decades ago because Kennedy (much less djt) doesn’t understand basic science.

Measles cases A rather interesting situation is unfolding in the January measles count market. According to the official CDC source, there are currently 416 confirmed cases, with one update remaining on Friday. A third-party source is already reporting 607 cases, and traders, of course, have taken this data at face value, pushing the >600 market to around 90c. But the catch is that, in the end, all figures are adjusted according to the CDC numbers. That means it’s reasonable to assume the final case count will end up below 600 - and I wouldn’t be surprised at all, especially since the previous update was exactly like this, when the CDC reported figures far lower than those cited by outside sources.

@GaetenD @OhNoItsHeddo @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara To do what tho? Tell them they r naughty, then what? Refer them to SEC? Does the SEC cover predictions? If so, is it something they could refer to DOJ for criminal prosecution?

@OhNoItsHeddo @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara Investigate the person and ban him if he’s breaking the terms of service.

Yesterday there was more clear insider trading on the Global Spotify market. I thought Kalshi had taken care of it but it looks like the insider just missed a day last week. It cost me $500 because I forgot to cancel my early bids and they wouldn't have been hit otherwise.

@BradMunchen Originally dude said nov ‘25. Actually they predicted it years ago.

These guys are seeing Tesla robotaxi driverless paid rides from April with 2,000 cars. 🤡 Not a word about the 8,313 incidents of FSD crashing due to traffic violations reported last Friday. Tesla is now manually analyzing these for submission to NHTSA on Feb-26th. $TSLA

@CaolanReports Correct. Only continuos striking of 15 Russian tankers per month, a doubling of mid range missiles fired at Russia and a boost of long range from about zero to 50-100 per month will halt Putin. Hurry up Europe.

Putin’s special envoy Dmitriev is coming here to Davos to spread lies and cover up war crimes. Literally the same week 6,000 buildings in Kyiv are without power. European politicians need to grow a backbone and kick these people out.

@P_Kallioniemi Biggest issue is drop in price for oil shipped from $75 to $35. Profit on 4M bpd is gone. About $20B per year. Also military sales $15B —>$1B. The other big factor is increasing long range capabilities.

Russia's problems are piling up: - Iran, a source for Shahed drones is in turmoil - Russian oil and gas production is facing massive problems due to sanctions and Ukrainian strikes - Long-time ally, Venezuela, has fallen - The flow of Cuban mercenaries will stop due to US pressure against the country - Military production and oil refineries are in big trouble due to sanctions and lack of spare parts - The US didn't turn out to be as close partner as they anticipated - The economy is in decline, and recession in 2026 is possible - At the same time, the country is missing workforce, and planning to emigrate 2 million Indians to fix the problem - Veterans returning from the front lines are traumatized and violent - They are now losing more soldiers than they can recruit - In China, there is growing interest in invading Siberian regions up to Lake Baikal, as well as occupy Sakhalin and other parts of the Russian Federation The question is no longer whether Russia will collapse, but when.

@Adamentous Heard u or someone eles on Russian Roulette defending Biden Admin for not giving more ATACAMs. Reality is , it didn’t even let Ukraine strike Russia in Russia with a tint late exception. It had an opportunity to let Ukraine reclaim lots of territory but drip fed aid.

The C.I.A. enabled Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia. Target #1 was a vast munitions depot in the lakeside town of Toropets, some 290 miles north of the Ukrainian border. The blast was as powerful as a small earthquake. The full story's here: nytimes.com/interactive/20…

@TacticzH Ppl r dumb and fall for claims of grandiosity

$TSLA - Can anyone explain to me why one of the slowest growing companies in the market trades at a forward PE of 222 and a TTM PE of 310?!

@Ztal_ @GaetenD Bingo.

@GaetenD It’s good for diversification too. Who knows what the PM landscape will look like 5 years from now.

Reasons why I don't quit my day job: 1. It doesn't interfere with my trading - I work from home and have my personal computer next to my work computer 2. Benefits - I get insurance and vacation time 3. High base salary - 2025 was the first year I made more trading than working

@FredLambert Yeh, especially considering many who don’t want teslas r price insensitive.

As he often is, Troy is right here. $TSLA's sales should continue to decline, likely even faster, in 2026. However, that's if it is business as usual. Tesla might also decide to slash prices to keep volume up. It would be disastrous for earnings as margins have already been slashed in almost half from 2022 highs of ~29% and that's before many incentives and subsidies went away this quarter. Tesla might decide to that nonetheless, as Musk previously said that he doesn't care about making money on existing car,s as he still believes a software update will turn them into unsupervised robotaxis. Lol.

@DillonLoomis Orrrr, getting better at recognizing an ahole.

Despite saying for a long time Tesla's delivery figures are quite insignificant, I will say this. The fact that Tesla's sales are now negative for two years in a row tells us A LOT about the mainstream consumer. They're either terrible at product research or have been fed so much anti-EV and anti-Elon propaganda they've lost the ability to think rationally. And sure, Tesla could advertise more, I've said as much. But all of the facts are freely available. Tesla makes THE safest cars on the road which you would think would be a priority for most. The total cost of ownership numbers are far superior to "comparable" gas cars. The convenience of the app. Reliable charging. Software updates. A blast to drive. FSD. The list goes on. Yet for some reason, millions of people globally are paying $40k+ for vehicles that are not a Tesla. Which in my opinion is a prime example of the negative impact of infowars and the media largely getting away with spewing nonsense to push a narrative. The data is telling me most people still lack the skills and/or desire to cut through the noise $TSLA

@garyblack00 @28delayslater @elonmusk Umm, i have about 100 tweets of u touting the “halo effect “ of CT , which i strongly countered.

@28delayslater @elonmusk Many of us suggested a more conventional pickup in 2020. $TSLA clearly needs more marketing muscle.

It’s time @elonmusk “Musk said he’s okay with making a “normal truck” if the Cybertruck doesn’t sell”

@munster_gene Lol, let me guess “great value here”

Looking closer at $TSLA deliveries, the numbers are better than they first appear. genemunster.com/cutting-throug…

@squawksquare @Tenit902 CEO who is Negligible, pathological, racist, generally rather gross doesn’t help. Being completely absent would be a boon but Elonians would lose it.

@Tenit902 IT does.

Just not enough for $TSLA to get back to the $500 level. Elon fuks shareholders again. Even production was terrible. What is going on with this company?

@salmanso_ Hope your crew has some of that equity. Would b nice if top 1000 volume traders were offered a buy in

It’s 12:00 on New Years. Not a single Kalshi engineer has left the office. Only new years resolution I have over heard has been to increase shareholder value in 2026 at a faster rate than 2025.

@CaolanReports Ty for ur work. Fyi, djt, UAE and India did not fall for Putin’s lie about being attacked. They joined his lie for their own purposes.

I confronted Nick Shirley about his lies in Ukraine. He pretended there was no war. He said his ‘reporting’ was satire. JD Vance now calls him America’s best journalist. Important to remember: this was not just a daycare, this is a country where people are being bombed daily.