Ghost of Collymore

Reminder

@meaculpaK9 @SGBarbour that's what mt gox users thought

@SGBarbour It’s not paper.

The more bitcoin Saylor buys, the less likely he is to get significant gains (and over longer periods). I learned this hard lesson when I was a teenager and I placed a large bet on the horse track. The liquidity pool was very low and my one bet shifted the odds heavily against my original expected value. Bitcoin price will not go up because Saylor keeps buying paper bitcoin and centralizing ownership, it goes up due to distributed network effect. Layered users do drive base layer network growth, but not much... Saylor should focus on improving the distributed P2P network effect if he wants gainz and shareholder returns. Happy friday!

@FiatMaximus Trump's strategy is working just fine wsj.com/finance/invest…

Trump trying to conduct wars on the weekend trying to prevent market dumps is only a temporary strategy. Eventually that nonsense won't work anymore.

@KingsofCardio @arkham Fishing rod story bogus. They tortured him & he spilled the beans.

@arkham So how'd the authorities get his BTC? They found his fishing rod case??

how to make 400 million dollars in 10 years >be clifton collins >irish >unemployed >get job as a security guard to pay bills >start beekeeping on the side >its going well >win awards for your honey >realize that you can make more money growing cannabis instead >rent houses all around ireland to grow, and sell everything in Dublin >6-7 years later friend tells you about bitcoin >spend $30,000 of profits buying BTC >hide the seed phrase in the case for your fishing rod >in under a year, you’re a multimillionaire off BTC >5 years later doing a dead-drop in the middle of a forest at 2:30am >irish police find you >prison >landlord throws out all of your possessions >including the fishing rod case >$100M of BTC turns into $750M while you’re in prison, now $400M >you made $400M but you can’t spend any of it >its over

@LukeGromen You've said it's maybe a kabuki theatre and I totally agree. Thinking rare earths, semiconductor supplier flowchart featuring mostly Chinese companies etc. If the Chinese wanted to become THE global hegemon, all they have to do is turn off the tap. What's stopping them?

1/ I’m recording a 5-10 min YouTube video to be released later this week; pls drop some questions below & I’ll touch on as many as I can on a best efforts basis. Thx! (Also, pls feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel.)

@DEhnts well said

Greece used to be at 95 percent of the EU average when it comes to GDP per capita. Now it stands at 68%. Those that talk about a "Greek recovery" need to get their facts straight. Greece stabilized at a low level of economic activity, then grew a bit, but it did not "recover".

@xargr @DEhnts you avoid paying whatever you can to make ends meet sometimes. I had a restaurant and among other insane things we had to pay an annual subscription to a regional and a national business registry. At the same time, we couldn't claim legitimate business expenses

@DEhnts In Greece the 95% of business run under the table, there are many industries that have professionals gain > 100K per year and they declare 10k. Not that they are rich but there is no dataset can prove the reality.

@natygimenezb @JakeNomada May i ask why the negative sentiment? Is it because gringos have pushed up rents or something else? Where I live it is rental accomodations that became airbnbs that made some locals push back

@JakeNomada Who lied and told u that we want you all here?

When you're honest about Paraguay 🇵🇾 Many people will hate it The weather is brutal in summer, the infrastructure is rough around the edges compared to Chile or Uruguay, and Asuncion feels like a sleepy backwater BUT For Europeans, Canadians, and Australians looking for: - 0% tax on foreign income - Easy residency with minimal time in country - $1,500/month all-in lifestyle - Zero bureaucratic nonsense - Friendly locals who actually want you there It's still one of the *BEST* plays in LatAm Not for everyone, but if the use case fits, Paraguay punches way above its weight

@stackhodler @gigahodler it ripped oc, it's called a pump and dump. Here's grok for you x.com/i/grok/share/9…

@gigahodler I did not recommend it at $44 It ripped 44% AFTER I recommended it But ask yourself why you're trying so hard to dunk on me. WWJD

Haven't been sharing much macro / investing stuff on here since nobody wants to read bearish takes And I've been mostly bearish since late last fall. But someone asked for my current thinking so here it goes: My daughter will be born any day now. Protecting my family's capital and navigating this fourth turning has been my number one priority since my son was born two years ago. I have been laser focused on making sure baby girl and her big brother are taken care of. And that mom is blissfully unaware of the unfolding chaos. But I can only do things that are in my control. Scrolling the timeline and getting worked up about every tit-for-tat escalation is completely useless. So what have I done instead? The majority of my portfolio has been in Swiss Francs and physical gold since late last fall. I shared my bearish thinking then. It was very hard to sell. But with my family's well-being guiding my decisions, my gut told me I had to. For the first time since going all-in on Bitcoin around $5K in March 2020, BTC makes up a minority of my holdings. And I'm still in no hurry to re-deploy. I've moved my CHF into the most stable Swiss banks in existence with unlimited state guarantees. I moved my physical gold into high security non-bank safety deposit boxes, along with some physical CHF. And besides some energy-related equities and some QQQ puts... I'm being patient with my family's capital. The closest I have come to buying anything was some arable land with a fresh water source in France. But I'm not keen on tying a large chunk of capital to the fate of France. We have a private credit crisis, a global sovereign debt bubble, the worst energy crisis in history, and potential WW3 breaking out. Global yields just began breaking out in a major way last week. Equity indexes have been incredibly complacent given the circumstances. If you think you're late to react, IMO you're not. I see massive complacency. People forget that the world can actually turn into a very chaotic place. We have been living in abnormally peaceful and prosperous times for our whole lives. Everyone is conditioned to expect TACO, v-shaped recovery, etc. But I think that changes this week. Especially if we pass Trump's 48hr deadline and all parties follow through on their threats to destroy more critical infrastructure. Maybe this is peak fear. Maybe we walk back from the brink and stop the bleeding. (not that it solves the private credit or sovereign debt crises btw) But as a steward of my family's capital, wealth preservation remains a far bigger priority for me than incremental gains given the circumstances. I have long written that I expect either the Great Debasement or Great Depression 2 in the 2020s. But perhaps we get both. In my estimation, Great Depression 2 is now far more likely than it was just a few weeks ago. I.e. everyone getting poorer in real terms due to skyrocketing energy costs, people losing jobs, and people defaulting on debt en masse. The assumption that central banks can simply print us out of this crisis is a dangerous one. Sure they may print. But they cannot print oil. They cannot print jobs. They cannot print energy infrastructure. They cannot put the AI genie back in the bottle. A serious supply crunch of oil can only be dealt with by allowing demand destruction. Printing money does the opposite. Printing money into a supply crunch of oil / nat gas is basically destroying the currency on purpose. Which may very well happen. But that brings the legitimacy of the Central Banks into question, so will they deliberately destroy themselves? We ignore these constraints at our own peril. As yields start moving higher, I am braced for a deflationary "correlation to 1" moment. I have a shopping list of quality assets ready to go (including BTC) and I will deploy capital once I see how the central planners decide to react. Beyond investing, I've stocked up on a years worth of critical supplies. My home is filled to the brim with diapers and formula. I've done all I can to prepare my family. Now it's time for a long ski erg and a sauna session to make sure I'm in the best mental state possible for baby girl's arrival. The timeline is un-scrollable right now. Just a massive doom fest. Take action. Do what you can to prepare. But don't forget that the world is still beautiful. And the best things in life have nothing to do with money. Time with family, pushing yourself physically in nature, a little bit of morning sunshine on your face... If you have the ability to enjoy those things today you're already wealthier than you realize.

@hkuppy friends?

Trump can TACO, burrito and chimichanga, but nothing will open Hormuz unless Iran wants it open. We can’t go home with Hormuz shut and missiles raining down on our friends. The only way out, is through Iran.. As scary as that sounds, I think we’re going to mobilize serious boots on the ground. That takes 6+ months. No one’s portfolio is positioned for half a year of this chaos…

@johnnovack50413 @Jethroe111 The Chinese want to trade. If they want to bring the US to it's knees they can do it tomorrow by not supplying stuff to the US

@Jethroe111 china may be the key here. george, do you have a theory as to what china would do if they succeed in bringing the u.s. to it’s knees?

I've lived this. Let me tell you where this is going. When I was flying F-18's around the Gulf decades ago, the Strait of Hormuz was first and foremost in planning sessions from Washington to my ready room. And here is what we knew. It could not be secured then. Not truly secured. 100% secured. And that was the key. Today that is more true than ever. The nature of war changed forever in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and got its ass kicked in the first 2 months. Drones and cheap missiles revolutionized warfare, and gave small nations an assymetry in power projection they had never possessed. What should get everyone's attention is the Iranian attack on Lars Raffan, the world's largest LNG processing facility. After 3 weeks of complete air superiority and saturated bombing that "ran out of targets" Iran managed to launch 5 ballistic missiles at that field. The Shahed 131 and 136 drones cost between $10-50k and can be transported in small pieces in a pickup, assembled onsite in hours and launched. Most intercepts on our side cost $4M for the Patriot and up to $12M for the THAAD. And here is something that should get your attention. We will not be able to rebuild our inventories without China's cooperation. Full stop. They have us by the balls due to one thing: Rare Earth minerals, magnets, and most importantly, the refining needed to process them. If this conflict continues things are going to break in the system. Severely break.

@stack_collymore Haha I forgot about that!

We’ve come a long way from “volatility is vitality.”

@MartinSkold2 Why would insurers want Trump out? Because he is a loose cannon or they align with the other side more?

This was the real curveball, and it was the reason even grizzled maritime experts were saying around 1-3 March that the Strait had never been functionally closed. I tend to see it as politically motivated - the insurers are sending a message regarding what they want to see happen (up to and including Trump leaving office). But it isn’t true that nobody anticipated the regime shooting back - it was simply a question of whether it would collapse into a civil war (in which case we’d have one set of problems) or hold together (in which case it would turn into a Kosovo-style stalemate, which it essentially has, only instead of deporting ethnic Albanians this regime is shooting at shipping and infrastructure). All of that could be and was anticipated - it was just a riddle as to which way it would go. From where I was sitting, neither sounded great, and still doesn’t.

@BitcoinOllie @basedlayer @BTCYN non-zero chance he never bought all those coins + unknown unknowns

@basedlayer @BTCYN I do wonder if there are any risks of one country holding so much and also custody concerns.

Strategy is on a path to 1 million bitcoin by end of 2026 one million is 5% of every bitcoin that will ever exist owned by one company and Saylor is reportedly announcing a top-5 all-time purchase on Monday one man is attempting to accumulate 5% of the hardest money ever created while most people out there still argue about whether it's a Ponzi the last person who attempted something this aggressive with a commodity was the Hunt brothers with silver in 1980 the difference is silver's supply isn't capped and bitcoin's is and btw Saylor isn't using leverage on futures he's buying spot with equity issuance either this is the greatest corporate treasury strategy in history or the most spectacular one there's no in between and we'll know the answer within two years

@btcminutemen @Bitcoin_ator @BitcoinNewsCom those athletes and anchormen that dropped in front of record numbers in 2021/2 in front of cameras, was that a conspiracy theory?

@Bitcoin_ator @BitcoinNewsCom That’s retarded. I’ve been injected with so many vaccines I fckn glow. I’m old and fine. Stop believing conspiracy theories.

NEW: Bitcoin educator Andreas Antonopoulos says he will stop producing livestreams and new content due to health issues. Antonopoulos previously said he has been suffering from debilitating migraines and has tried nearly every treatment available, but nothing has successfully stopped them.

@basedlayer Make America Grift Again

a meme token created by a sitting president who is simultaneously bombing Iran and inviting his token holders to dinner at his private club while the Fed meets in three days while oil is above $100 while three American soldiers are dead the chaos gap between the old world of institutions and whatever this is has never been wider and there is genuinely no framework from any previous era of politics or finance or technology that explains what's happening right now we're just in it

@Wie_jetze @vladimirxyimir @Dr_Rainer_Kraft @jakluge You mean the gas power plant that is used when the sun doesnt shine & the wind doesnt blow? Because battery capacity seems lacking.

@stack_collymore @vladimirxyimir @Dr_Rainer_Kraft @jakluge Put simply, the price is determined by the most expensive (gas-fired power plant) electricity supplier.

German electricity mix in recent days. The blue and yellow stuff doesn't have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

@vladimirxyimir @Dr_Rainer_Kraft @jakluge Why is German energy expensive then?

@Dr_Rainer_Kraft @jakluge As we see per the current situation. Oh wait, it's actually the opposite.

@meat_cpu @themarketradar @KobeissiLetter Whatever biden was, that was better. Even the Boden memecoin was better than trumpcoin

@themarketradar @KobeissiLetter Most politicians have speechwriters. Maybe what they say sounds better, but you have no idea who they are or what they would say if they weren't reading from a paper. So what do you prefer, a scripted liar or an impulsive liar?

BREAKING: The odds of the Democrats winning the Senate in midterm elections surge to a new high of 47%. Democrats also have a record 85% chance of winning the House of Representatives. Odds have surged since the Iran war began.

@ovihood @edstromandrew also asked an AI about individual European defense stocks with good financials but of those I can only vouch for Rolls Royce where they do good things in nuclear. Like most of them, it isn't vanilla defense. Not invested in any, just watching

@stack_collymore @edstromandrew Can you name a few you re watching pls.

Bitcoin price chart right now looks indistinguishable from May/June of 2022. Bitcoin trying to muster a rally to the 50DMA and getting close but failing. Holding high cash percentage in investment accounts never felt so good. Real risk of liquidity tide recession turning problematic at this point. Hard to even hold oil and gas stocks here given valuations and how far they've moved upward. Is there a single asset other than T bills that you want to buy right now?