Worn Buffett

Expect EBITDA/t surges from high fixed-cost leverage: $80–90/t flows p $100/t LME rise, energy offset max $50–150/t (hydro/insulated for below) Alcoa: $700–1,100/t Century: $900–1,400/t Hydro: $800–1,300/t tightening cost curve; margins expand xAI Todd Combs wrote this 🥸🥸

Pre-crisis FY2025 EBITDA/t @ realized prices ~$3,000–$3,400/t):- Alcoa: $450/t ($1.058B / 2.349 Mt shipments); Q4 $832/t Century: $657/t ($425M / 0.647 Mt); Q4 ~$1,217/t Hydro: ~$500–600/t avg; Q4 $733/t

xAI Buffett on roll - The Hormuz crisis has triggered force majeure at Alba (1.62 Mt smelter; Lines 1–3 shut, 308 kt loss) & Qatalum scaled to ~60% (259 kt annualized cut), tightening global Alum supply by ~0.5-0.6 Mt/yr. LME Al surged to $3,520/t (13 Mar '26 high vs22)

@Macrobysunil by this dogma, lead, zinc, alum are not industrial right?

Why is Silver lagging while Gold is ripping? The answer is simple. This oil spike is not demand-driven. It’s a supply shock. A sudden supply shock = growth scare. Growth scare = industrial metals take a hit. Silver, platinum, copper all carry industrial exposure. Gold does not. Gold is purely monetary. In a growth shock regime the order is clear: Gold > Silver > Platinum > Copper The more industrial the metal, the harder it struggles during a sudden growth scare. Until uncertainty fades and liquidity normalizes, Gold leads. When clarity returns and growth stabilizes, Silver and Platinum will roar back and compress the Gold/(Silver/platinum)ratio. For now: Supply shock regime = Gold leadership.

@pizzintwatch imagine if the enemy can access this data...?

NEW IN POLYGLOBE: US + Iran military Installations 🪖🌐 You can now monitor and inspect 3,103 military installations on the globe. Filter by base type (air, naval, nuclear, etc.) to focus on what you care about. Open any base to get: -installation metadata -article context + imagery -direct Wikipedia source -local news hits from GDELT Sourced from OSM polygons, then enriched with Wikipedia/Wikidata. Coming soon: all military installations globally, indexed and searchable.

@blueprintsmb22 reflexive status quo, past private schoolers only hiring private schoolers

Earth shattering news from the WSJ => Students graduating from Ivy League schools are more likely to be wealthy x.com/WSJ/status/200…

@smirallesacuna @leveredvlad @tryoffdeal true, + do they integrate Dealogic, Mergermarket or SDC etc for precedent analysis?

@leveredvlad @tryoffdeal "Analyzes millions of past deals" ???? That claim does not make sense. There are only about 325,000 M&A deals in USA since 1985. Most with limited data. +500,000 worldwide but with almost no public data.

Excited to share that @tryoffdeal has raised a $12M Series A to build the world’s first AI-native investment bank, less than 10 months after our Seed. This year we already launched over 30 M&A sell-sides, and delivered numerous multi-million $ exits to our clients. A quick 🧵

@LibertyCappy @grok which show?

@FAHayekSays @grok build a whatsapp status pic from above

Many human achievements weren’t planned—they emerged. As Hayek puts it: “Many of the greatest things man has achieved are not the result of consciously directed thought, but of a process in which the individual plays a part that he can never fully understand.”

@junkbondinvest PC to LPs '' lets burn money (for a while)''

Private credit in India: 19.75% yield on $3.4B deal No, that's not a typo Yes, it's a record deal Collateral transferability however is... negotiable The math works differently there

This is the best time to be alive if you're taking total ownership over your actions It's also the worst time to be alive if you only play the victim card and complain all day

This is dumb pump and dump at best, add the perpetual overcapacity, supply/demand mismatch, price wars, falling realizations amidst cutthroat competition to the equation and start valuing cemcos as the slugging commodities, not as the next innovation

@Bullshark_2012 @HighyieldHarry nonononono^n=infinity

@HighyieldHarry Get the CFA done.

Any advice for this young buck?

@Restructuring__ pls fix - Thai Union would do this (even if it drove Red Lobster into bankruptcy) is because the large prices it was able to change (charge) Red Lobster helped increase Thai Union’s profits, thx

Red Lobster, The Company Killed by Shrimp Usually, companies fail for boring reasons. Sometimes, they fail because of fun reasons - like shrimp. Red Lobster falls into the second category. The company owners forced Red Lobster to get into very aggressive contracts with its parent company which supplied them with shrimp. Things started to go wrong when Red Lobster introduced their “Ultimate Endless Shrimp” (“UES”) campaign. In May 2023, the UES campaign was a limited-time promotion, but shortly afterwards became a permanent menu item, for the price of $20. This strategic decision created tens of millions of losses and ended up breaking the company. On Friday, we are exploring this amazing story and the restructuring details. __ Click below to join 19,000+ investors / lawyers from firms like Apollo, KKR, Farallon, Point 72, Kirkland & Ellis, Skadden, and many more! Pari Passu articles go behind paywall one week after being published. Make sure to subscribe now to get this and all future articles for free!

Such a great scene: Never forget 💥

So why are interest rates rising as the Fed cuts rates? The main reason is that markets have realized that inflation is back on the rise. 3-month annualized core CPI is nearing 4% while PCE, PPI, and CPI inflation are all rising again. This is BEFORE tariffs and tax cuts.

🐓 The Chicken Man.

@gemsofbabus_ Someone needs to point these raids to so-called 6th Schedule Districts in North-East India, could be goldmine of recoveries

Govt Job 🫡 40 kg silver, bundles of notes recovered from former Transport Department constable's house in Bhopal Man, the amount of wealth these Govt employees accumulate through corruption is insane. 🤯🤯🤯

@Stamford_Sam idiot academic at play

This isn’t how it works, Karen. Private equity firms will frequently buy up to 5.0% (the disclosure threshold) of a business before taking it private.