置顶推文
Prenchie
372 posts
Prenchie
@Prenchie_
Créer le chaos et en tirer parti | Trading | Mathématiques bancales 🇫🇷 Not affiliate to @Frenchie_
加入时间 Haziran 2026
133 关注825 粉丝
GIF
Français
@JulienTechInvst si la France devait rattraper son « retard » en modèle IA pour être au niveau de Claude ou GPT.
Il faudrait combien de mois / années à ton avis ?
Admettons qu’on lève les contraintes financières et réglementaires de l’Europe et France ?
Français
I went through every earnings call across the entire 800G and 1.6T supply chain and mapped out the actual supply vs. demand.
The $LITE CEO said it best: "We are significantly under shipping demand. It's certainly greater than that 30% number. We are having to make choices as to who we support."
> $LITE has every laser it can make through the end of 2027 already sold.
> $AAOI is expanding capacity 10x and the CEO still said demand will outrun it through mid-2027.
> $FN said demand far exceeded what they shipped last quarter. Named lasers as the first constraint.
> $CIEN added $600M to its backlog in a single quarter. Now sitting at $7.7B.
> $CSCO raised its hyperscaler AI order guidance from $5B to $9B mid-year with one quarter left. That is purchase orders. Not projections.
Full report is free to read. Link in replies or link in bio.
KawzInvests@KawzInvests
Where supply vs demand actually stands in optics right now, straight from the latest earnings calls. $LITE is sold out. Their CEO quantified undershipping demand by more than 30% and said they are having to choose which customers to support. EML capacity is locked in LTAs through 2027. $AAOI is scaling from 100k to 930k units per month by end of 2027 and still forecasts demand exceeding capacity through mid 2027. $COHR has bookings into calendar 2028 and is doubling indium phosphide capacity twice in 18 months. They called the InP constraint industry wide. $FN said demand far exceeded what they were able to ship and named the constraint as lasers, not assembly. $CIEN backlog hit $7.7B, up $2.6B in six months. $CSCO raised hyperscaler AI orders from $5B to $9B mid year. Add it up and the 800G/1.6T market is running roughly 27 to 30% undersupplied. If CPO is pushed to 2028, this is the supply chain that carries the entire AI buildout for two more years. Sold out, with no replacement coming.
English
TL; DR
Ai supply chain isn't enough rn
Demand is way over offer can do
Compagnies are investing
Notes from myself :
Resuming this as a bubble and "infinite money glitch" because compagnies are investing into each other is a way to spread FUD.
DYOR and don't use trade republic
KawzInvests@KawzInvests
I went through every earnings call across the entire 800G and 1.6T supply chain and mapped out the actual supply vs. demand. The $LITE CEO said it best: "We are significantly under shipping demand. It's certainly greater than that 30% number. We are having to make choices as to who we support." > $LITE has every laser it can make through the end of 2027 already sold. > $AAOI is expanding capacity 10x and the CEO still said demand will outrun it through mid-2027. > $FN said demand far exceeded what they shipped last quarter. Named lasers as the first constraint. > $CIEN added $600M to its backlog in a single quarter. Now sitting at $7.7B. > $CSCO raised its hyperscaler AI order guidance from $5B to $9B mid-year with one quarter left. That is purchase orders. Not projections. Full report is free to read. Link in replies or link in bio.
English
@Frenchie_ @FrenchHair_ là ça devient incontrôlable mais je reste l'original
Français
Je posterai désormais les résumés de chacun de nos lives
Ces derniers sont traité par un LLM et peuvent avoir des "Coquilles".
J'ai la chance d'être entouré d'intervenants d'une qualité rare, et de pouvoir restituer à la communauté l'ensemble des "recherches" que nous menons ensemble sur notre communauté
Merci pour la force que vous nous donnez. Je suis profondément touché par les messages que je reçois autour de ces exercices loin d'être simples car souvent préparé hativement
Dernièrement, ces derniers temps, je suis particulièrement fier des investisseurs qui ont su garder le cap sur leurs propres convictions malgrès les remous et le bruit
Onward
Frenchie@Frenchie_
Français
gm guys
J'ai perdu @Pheron_Bourse
Il aura vécu le temps d'un snap comme le pf de certains
Bref gm all et bon dimanche
Français
Bientot je lance une émission hebdomadaire pour discuter des marchés et debrief l’actu…
Frenchie@Frenchie_
Je tiens à préciser que c'est bien @Frenchie_ qui live pas @Prenchie_
Français
Donc la il vole mes blagues et personne ne dit rien ?
Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts from Truth Social@DonaldTrumpNat
Stocks should go higher next Monday!
Français
@Prenchie_ Fun fact : c’est ce qui s’est passé avec mon ex. Le jour où on s’est séparé, mon portefeuille a fait x5 en 3 mois 😂.
Je lui ai envoyé un message avec le screenshot des gains après 3 mois en guise de revanche.
Français
« Nan mais c’est un investissement long terme chérie… part pas… stp »
Professeur Tirelire@Tirelirelab
Mauvaise semaine pour moi. Ca arrive. On fera mieux la semaine prochaine.
Français
Best FinX communities
- Finnish Tungsten Mafia
Absolute vibemaxxers. Stage 4 Asthma from chronic metal investing. Probably investing directly from their job at the coal mine. If you were ever in danger, 100 naked drunk men will turn up to your house to defend your honour. Brothers for life.
- Korean Leverage Degens
Severe mental illness. Their entire index moves like a 40k market cap shitcoin. Their only 2 options are Bill Hwang or homelessness. No fear of failure, as you can always max another credit card out. Beautiful people with a deep love for winner hard and losing even harder.
- Frenchies Cult of Paris
Their discord is the closest thing to a hedge fund. There is like 400 french adderal + coke addicts doing dd simultaneously on 10000 different stocks at all times. Won't invest in anything that doesn't have a scent of Jean Paul Gaultier on it.
- Crypto Asylum Seekers
Watching them navigate a playing field where they can't rug you to zero is amazing to watch. 24-7 meme fest to cope with how downbad they've been for the last 6 months. No idea how to invest in an equity that actual has value, so they use Fibonacci TA on NVDA and Broadcom.
English
@crypto_matou @LysandreBL Je reste bearish quand meme
Sideline et entêté
Français
@LysandreBL @Prenchie_ La fermeture d’hier est quand même à +20% de l’IPO.
Il faudra voir dans 1 semaine et dans 1 mois,
Analyser avant ça sert à rien.
Français
Ce tweet a mal vieilli… et dire que c’est son travail…
Lysandre@LysandreBL
Attention à l'IPO Space X qui, pour moi, va tout envoyer au tas si elle se passe mal Genre catalyseur du bear market
Français
@LysandreBL Je te fais des blagues mais je suis tout aussi sideline que toi
Français
@Tirelirelab Bon courage, en partant du bas on peut que remonter… après des fois certains creusent donc méfie toi
Français
Mauvaise semaine pour moi. Ca arrive. On fera mieux la semaine prochaine.
Français