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Stephanie Nebehay
37.9K posts

Stephanie Nebehay
@StephNebehay
Speaking out after 35 yrs as Reuters reporter covering UN, WHO, human rights, Swiss news. Légion d'honneur, Overseas Press Club Award @georgetown @columbiajourn
Geneva, Switzerland 加入时间 Haziran 2011
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Stephanie Nebehay 已转推

US @SecRubio told G7 the US is NOT expecting the Strait to re-open 2 traffic as usual by end of war. "After this thing ends...one of the immediate challenges we’re going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz” 1/
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Stephanie Nebehay 已转推
Stephanie Nebehay 已转推
Stephanie Nebehay 已转推

US Forces at Saudi Air Base Suffer Iranian Attack airandspaceforces.com/us-forces-saud…
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One month into Iran war, only hard choices for Trump - reuters.com/world/middle-e…
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If you haven’t seen Gladiator (the original), the opening scene is quite applicable to the situation between the U.S. and Iran today. The Roman forces are assembled, hoping for a surrender. The Germanic tribes behead the negotiator.
Quintus: “People should know when they’re conquered.”
Maximus: “Would you, Quintus? Would I?”
That’s where the U.S. and Iran are right now.
The US and Iran are fundamentally misunderstanding each other. Washington seems to think that if it ratchets up the pressure enough on Iran by striking energy infrastructure, or putting in ground troops to take Kharg or one of the other islands, or deploying along or in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran will eventually capitulate and decide it needs a negotiated settlement. That would probably have been wrong under Iran’s leadership that has been killed during the war, it’s almost certainly wrong now under an even more hardline regime controlled more fulsomely by the IRGC . Iran will retaliate and strike back against valuable energy and infrastructure in the Gulf, it could still. Employee asymmetric terrorist attacks in Europe.
Likewise Iran seems to think the US threats are hallow because surely the US after its experiences of ground wars in Afghanistan and Iraq won’t reasonably think to strike infrastructure that has significant civilian uses or to put in ground forces in Iran. This is also almost certainly wrong. President Trump may not have a clear strategy (which he should), but he has shown time and again a willingness to move forward concretely without clarity on how something might end.
Negotiations are almost certainly not going to provide a meaningful off-ramp right now, U.S. and Iranian minimum requirements are too far apart, and Iran truly thinks it’s winning — just as President Trump seems to think the U.S. is. But for Iran, it need only not to lose to claim victory, the U.S. needs to not only ensure Iran cannot threaten Israel and Gulf allies, but have resolution on the 440kg of HEU and ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait.
There’s been lots of understandable questions about how this ends. But here’s something to consider: implicit in that question is that this conflict does concretely end. It might. But if U.S. or allied militaries are required to remain in the region indefinitely to keep the Strait open; if Iran begins to rebuild its ballistic missile program (which it almost certainly will) leading to an Israeli “mowing the grass strategy; if the HEU isn’t destroyed, then this conflict won’t end as many expect it to, it will simply, eventually, enter a new phase of low intensity but sustained posturing and conflict.
Rarely do people know when they’re conquered.
@AtlanticCouncil @ACMideast
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As things now stand, it is easier to see regime change coming to Congress this fall than to Tehran. My latest take in Home & Away on the war with Iran. open.substack.com/pub/richardhaa…
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Switzerland halted payments for US Patriot systems last autumn after learning deliveries would be delayed. But SRF reveals this is having little effect: the US has been redirecting Swiss payments intended for the F‑35 fighter jet to cover Patriot costs. buff.ly/1BingFc
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A month after the US and Israel began striking Iran, BBC Eye has gathered exclusive material from independent Iranian journalists about the devastation caused by the bombing. 🎧 #GlobalNewsPod bbc.in/4dTytwC
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The @AP is now calling Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon an invasion. Here's why we made that decision:
apnews.com/article/iran-l…
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SCOOP!!! -- The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal.
The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, according to the U.S. intelligence, our sources say.
w/@idreesali114 @JonathanLanday @ErinBanco
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FT Exclusive: Moscow has close ties with Tehran and has provided its ally with crucial support including satellite imagery, targeting data and intelligence support, people familiar with the matter said. ft.trib.al/IsseW1G

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Iran has informed the U.S. through intermediaries that it rejects the Trump administration's 15-point proposal for negotiations, Iran's English-language Press TV reported on Wednesday. My report on @axios
axios.com/2026/03/25/ira…
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BREAKING: A jury in Los Angeles finds Instagram and YouTube liable in a landmark social media addiction trial. apnews.com/article/social…
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Stephanie Nebehay 已转推

The laws of war aren't being followed in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. But how many ways can you name?
And the harder question: is there anyone who can actually enforce them?
Here's where international law stands: simplelaw.blog/p/the-us-israe…

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"A major story that probably doesn’t get talked about enough is the reality that the president of the United States is, well, out of his mind." publicnotice.co/p/mark-jacob-i…
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Stephanie Nebehay 已转推
Stephanie Nebehay 已转推
Stephanie Nebehay 已转推

Explainer: With top figures dead, who is now running Iran? - reuters.com/world/middle-e…
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