Ted 🇨🇦🇺🇦

We are witnessing, literally watching live, Putin commit genocide on an industrial scale in Ukraine while the most powerful military alliance in history stands aside. It's impossible not to be emotional, but let us also be rational and focus our rage on the facts. 1/13

10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Choices: 1. Let 10y UST yields spike, hitting stocks, housing, & economy. 2. Print USD into an oil spike to cap 10y yields, hitting USD. 3. Walk away, granting Iran a strategic victory. Let's watch.

$SILVER potential 5x before 2030.

Sounds like the table is being set for the US to withdraw from NATO. Not that this wasn’t obvious before, but it’s now being said pretty explicitly

When Trump announced a delay to the bombing on Monday morning, crude oil futures immediately fell 10%. Compare this to the reaction to yesterday afternoon, when he extended the delay another 10 days (red box). It was short-lived, and now, about 12 hours later, prices are meaningfully higher. I believe the market signal is that the Strait must be opened, and the military must do it. The longer we delay starting this process, the higher crude oil prices will go. All Trump did yesterday was add 10 more days to the ongoing supply shock. Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets. Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets. Why isn't the crude oil market substantially higher ($150+), like many are asking? I would argue that the market believes the military can open the Strait. But it will be "messy." In other words, there are no good choices, only ones that are less bad.

Over the past 25 years, Germany has pursued an energy transition by phasing out nuclear power and expanding solar and wind—at a cost of around €500 billion in subsidies. The result: installed capacity has more than doubled, yet electricity generation has declined. The reason is structural. Reliable, dispatchable power was replaced by weather-dependent sources. The consequences are severe: rising energy costs, falling competitiveness, and growing pressure on energy-intensive industries. The key question remains: How do you run an industrial economy on a system that produces less when it matters most?

Oil prices will continue to rise if the current Strait of Hormuz blockage continues. However, there are significant commercial and strategic reserves that can be worked through to avoid broad physical shortages for some time. Bullish for oil - but not necessary to panic!

$GOLD is already rolling over after the bounce, and it still has NOT hit my first real target zone around 3900. On a closed basis, that is only a very modest Fibonacci (0.382) retrace for a move that went this parabolic... If this unwind continues, then 3450 and even the 3000 area are not outrageous at all. So when people call the lows here, my question is simple: based on what, exactly?