AlphaDuck
718 posts
🧵 $TAO vs $VVV — the private AI infrastructure trade. A thread. 1/ Bittensor is pumping, positioned as the decentralized AI play. But there's a $270M market cap project that's already delivering the exact use case TAO has been promising for two years.
$AIXTRON ($AIXA.DE) – German MOCVD leader for GaN/SiC/GaAs compound semis. Thesis: Can power electronics tailwinds (EVs, AI data centers, renewables) + micro-LED/photonics upside drive growth through the cyclical trough and competition? Key checkpoints to watch: • Revenue back to double-digit YoY growth (SiC/GaN orders leading) • Gross margins holding >40% (pricing + tech moat) • Book-to-bill consistently >1.0 (demand visibility) • >50% MOCVD market share defended vs Veeco & Chinese players Bull drivers: • SiC/GaN power boom – EV/industrial/AI DC electrification (high conviction) • Micro-LED catalyst if Apple/Samsung scale displays • Asset-light model = big operating leverage on rev ramps • EU Chips Act subsidies + reshoring sentiment Quick business flow: End markets (EVs, 5G, data centers, LEDs, lasers) → customers (Wolfspeed, Infineon, STMicro, onsemi, Chinese fabs) → AIXTRON tools (R&D → design → build → install/service) → revenue (~85% systems, 15% service) Moat: Deep MOCVD/CVD process expertise in wide-bandgap materials. Switching costs sky-high after tool qualification. Risk/reward snapshot: • SiC growth: Bull 23–26%+ CAGR to 2030 • GaN adoption: Bull mainstream RF/power ICs • China (~30–40% rev): Bull big contributor • Cyclical trough: Bull 2025 priced in • Valuation: Bull below historical medians Bottom line: High-quality niche equipment play with genuine secular drivers, currently in a trough priced like growth is dead. I think the upcycle is coming. Patient conviction bet, not low-vol safe. Not advice – DYOR. #Semiconductors #SiC #GaN #AIXTRON #AIEquity
Nvidia is investing $26B to make AI free. Apple shipped hardware to run it privately. Open-source closed the gap to 3 months behind frontier. The $1 trillion bet on cloud AI infrastructure was placed last year. 👇
Nvidia is investing $26B to make AI free. Apple shipped hardware to run it privately. Open-source closed the gap to 3 months behind frontier. The $1 trillion bet on cloud AI infrastructure was placed last year. 👇
