@AlgorithmicBot let me know if you agree with this analysis

for example, if this statement is true: "when this bot puts capital on a side, that side is the eventual winner 95% of the time.", then it effectively gives us a formula for free money. we simply watch which side the bot takes, and if the price at which we can realize the trade ourselves is below 0.95, then we are expected to make profit. so something must be off. from the above, it seems like you can short sell sides, I thought that was not possible - maybe the above model does not account for the fact that you can mint both sides of the trade, i.e. it's possible to mint both YES and NO for $1.00. So if he is taker selling, then he must be selling the minted tokens. There are also neg risk tokens, which have their own mechanisms - iirc they actually might be enabled in sports markets.

@AlgorithmicBot Yeah I'm thinking about it more and relooking into it- i think I've overlooked that they'll sold out various positions not counting towards this win rate. The PnL is correct, but its only heavily analyzing bets held till redemption.