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Jeff Sun, CFTe
Jeff Sun, CFTe@jfsrev·
ADR%: Examining Trend-Following vs. Range-Expansive Move Behavior I received an overwhelming response and numerous DMs (apologies if my replies are delayed, as I’m working to respond to each message constructively) across platforms, including LinkedIn and IG, about my recent post on the top 100 performing stocks (YTD basis), which included a breakdown of some simple key data. I also expanded the data for everyone's deep dive by sharing the full list of the top 100 % gainers from each year since 2018 without filter. I wish to use this post to clarify in case anyone misinterprets how to apply the ADR% filter in their screening criteria. x.com/jfsrevg/status… Here’s an overlay of the historical ADR% indicator highlighting two types of +70% upward moves within the same quarter. I’ve selected four stocks with varying prices, share structures, sector/group, floats, and trading volumes. $EAT $GEV shows a trend-following, yet volatility-compressive move (ADR% compression) during its +70% run, similar to $CAVA and $APP, which also demonstrated volatility compression. $EAT - Restaurants - Market Cap: $4.4B - Share Float: 43M - Average $ Volume (50D): $135M - Average Share Volume (50D): 1.3M - ADR%: 3.1% - Time to +70%: 45 trading days $GEV - Electronics Products - Market Cap: $83B - Share Float: 274M - Average $ Volume (50D): $843M - Average Share Volume (50D): 2.8M - ADR%: 2.99% - Time to +70%: 56 trading days $OKLO and $WULF exhibit a broad, range-expansive price movement, with high ADR% volatility throughout their upward trajectory. Very much like short term momentum burst advocated by @PradeepBonde $OKLO - Sector: Industrial Machinery - Market Cap: $2.6B - Share Float: 69M - Average $ Volume (50D): $276M - Average Share Volume (50D): 12M - ADR%: 18% - Time to +70%: 4 trading days $WULF - Sector: Data Processing Services - Market Cap: $2.3B - Share Float: 274M - Average $ Volume (50D): $138M - Average Share Volume (50D): 22M - ADR%: 10% - Time to +70%: 8-10 trading days This comparison could provide valuable insights into the type of trading you may want to prioritize, allowing you to optimize your screener to align better with your trading style. Additionally different execution parameters and rule, exit or profit-taking strategies may be necessary to adapt to the distinct price movement patterns shown here.
Jeff Sun, CFTe tweet mediaJeff Sun, CFTe tweet mediaJeff Sun, CFTe tweet mediaJeff Sun, CFTe tweet media
Jeff Sun, CFTe@jfsrev

@PradeepBonde highlighted a crucial distinction between two types of stock movements, providing valuable insights to laser-focus your own stock selection, even within a breakout strategy. I personally categorize one as a range-expansive momentum move (e.g., $COIN on 20/11), while the other is identified as a trend-following move (illustrated well by $VRT). Consider the following principles that I adhere to when concentrating on momentum-based trading, with a focus on short-term range expansion via executing trades that are trading at high relative volume beyond pivotal levels. 1. Direct your attention to stocks in these five sectors: $XLK, $XLY, $XLI, $XLE, $XLV. They have the highest success rate of breakouts. I wrote about this with reference to @florinlazar001 research 1-2 years ago. 2. Give preference to lower-priced, lower float, lower capitalization stocks, and those with high short interest, as they often undergo substantial magnitude moves. 3. Steer clear of executing short-duration setups that surpass 4x ATR multiples from their 50-MA. The only exception to this rule is for stocks with a market cap below $500 million, where I would still set not trade them at more than a 5x multiple. 4. Setups should encompass range compression coupled with volume contraction, likened to a compressed coil spring. 5. Execute trades only on setups securing pivotal levels below 100% ATR from the current Low of the Day (LoD). This significantly heightens the probability of concluding the day with unrealized profits based on historical IV, implied volatility. 6. Execute trades that secure pivotal levels with substantial volume relative to its average 50-MA volume, contingent on the time period of the day (e.g., 40% relative vol to 50-MA vol in the first 30 minutes is a substantial liquidity event). If you have a watchlist stock trading beyond 10% dollar volume to their market cap, they should be your priority (look at how $CVNA started the +600% run in 2023) 7. Refrain from entering if stop losses require pricing and sizing beyond 1 ATR from your entry. This ensures optimal exploitation of a winning trade in terms of profit factor and risk-reward ratio. 8. If your thesis isn't validated upon entry, reduce your position size before it even reaching your stop. If you are not proven right, you are yet to be proven wrong either. By controlling and improving losses below 1.0R, 0.8R, and 0.6R per losing trade, you can go a long way. Imagine the capability of a 5R winner covering 9 losses, instead of 5. 9. Don't dismiss leveraged ETFs as trading ideas; they can exhibit much larger range-expansive moves than individual stocks within the same sector or group. Now I'm stalking etfs like $KOLD $DRIP $TZA $DPST I genuinely believe that these rules hold merit and can enhance your profitability.

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