The crux of this debate is whether a lead of a “few months” is critical. I and many other supporters of export controls think it is; I also think Mythos is an existence proof of why this is the case.
Sebastian Mallaby@scmallaby
Adding to my replies below, and extending this debate among @CFR_org colleagues, I note that @edwardfishman’s new @ForeignAffairs essay drills down on what it takes to have an effective Geoeconomic weapon. One requirement is that the target country can’t figure out a new way of getting what it wants on about a one year horizon. If we define what China wants as being an Nvidia-quality firm, the US definitely has a Geoeconomic weapon. But if we define China’s goal as replicating US frontier AI capability, then clearly China is able to fast follow—it is only a few months behind.
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