Auber

$OPEN Unifying components is more powerful than it looks. With a single system, AI‑driven development becomes faster, cleaner, and far less error‑prone. AI rewards structured systems.

@ssj2abid Only 25% of the current active listings have been on the market for more than 61 days. Margins are going to be strong.

It's true. Most people are still pricing $OPEN like the business is failing. It's not. It's transforming. Some basic math on Q4 2026 profitability (according to Kaz guidance). Kaz guided 5-7% contribution margins and is ramping acquisitions every quarter. If we're doing 900-1,100 homes/week by Q4, here's what the numbers look like: 900/week at 5% CM: → 11,700 homes/quarter × $400K = $4.7B revenue → $4.7B × 5% = $234M contribution → - $50M overhead → = $184M EBITDA → - $80M (financing + D&A/SBC) → = $104M net income ✅ → Annualised EPS: $0.43 → 30x → $13 | 45x → $19.50 | 75x → $32.60 1,100/week at 7% CM: → 14,300 homes/quarter × $400K = $5.7B revenue → $5.7B × 7% = $400M contribution → - $50M overhead → = $350M EBITDA → - $80M (financing + D&A/SBC) → = $270M net income ✅ → Annualised EPS: $1.13 → 30x → $33.80 | 45x → $50.70 | 75x → $84.50 Net income positive across every scenario. Even at 900/week and just 5% margins. The stock is $5.49. ANALysts say $1.50. Much higher soon. nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

@morganb Just a question, why 100.759 instead of +100.000? 🤔 Since it’s a number that doesn’t update, couldn’t it simply stay ‘dynamic’ with a + or ‘more than’

☑️ 60 days tracking Opendoor listings Update on Map Explorer: New text search to look up homes by address, plus a new 30–60 day range category.

#openarmy: @Opendoor Q&A goes live tomorrow at 2pm PT. Ask away 🏡app.saytechnologies.com/opendoor-2026-…

YTD, Opendoor has 6,641 acquisition contracts so far. It’s a big number, securing that many acquisition contracts in almost four months is significant. If they were able to maintain this pace, we’d be looking at at least +20,000 acquisition contracts by year‑end. Assuming that 15–20% of those contracts end up being canceled, we’d still be talking about +16,000 homes actually acquired this year. Currently, based on tracked data, only about 28% of Opendoor’s inventory has been listed for more than 60 days. In other words, they’re not just buying homes, they’re generating a high volume of transactions and reducing friction. These are large numbers considering the current macro environment. $OPEN

Approximately 35% of all Opendoor homes sold so far in operational Q2 have sold in under one month from the moment they were listed on Opendoor’s site. This is genuinely surprising given the current weak macro environment.

@ericjackson I’ve heard they have 81 ice blocks, maybe they need another one 😏

I'm going have to go down and do a video in front of this thing

Still bullish at $6, $11 or 73 cents

@maelan_sdmr It depends on the credit score, at the lowest credit tier they’re getting a full 1% difference.

The last time I checked, $OPEN mortgage rates were 0.6 points lower than the market average. Today I see they are 0.8 points lower. Incredible. 4.99% doesn't seem to be a myth after all.. Faster.

We've acquired Audrion - among the most impressive teams in YC's Fall 2025 batch. An AI pilled techncial team attacking a very hard problem. Their team will lead our mortgage product. Welcome @chrissesi, @chintanparikh94, @vineets1600 and @apostolos_delis to Opendoor.

@morganb Looks great, Morgan. Just one thing I noticed: when I switch between the Sell/Buy menu elements, there’s a flicker and the black background disappears and reappears. Visually it’s a bit distracting.

this test started today - if you see it out in the wild, now you know. (It's an A/B test, so you may or may not see it.) If you do see it, lmk what you think.

Hiring at Opendoor isn’t slowing down, in the past few weeks they seem to have brought on a brand design director and several engineers.

@TorbalanGenX @ssj2abid Yeah, I was outside, it’s working again now

@Aubermark @ssj2abid tracker isnt running

Who wants to see some more $OPEN math? 👀 This time we're going over the new products built into Opendoor 2.0: → The Doma acquisition (title + escrow, now owned in-house) → The Opendoor Mortgage product (AI-native, no lender fees, lower rates) I'm going to break down what a single home transaction looks like under the old Opendoor vs the new full stack. Then scale the math. It's very tasty 👀

@theelkingtonway Approximately every 10 minutes I track Opendoor entire current listing set and compare it with snapshots to detect new listings, delistings, price changes, etc. You can verify it yourself by comparing Opendoor’s map with the Map Explorer. All here: aubermark.github.io/open-tracker/

@Aubermark Is there a public site or dashboard you’re getting this from?

From what I’ve seen not the same metric. My 35% metric is a flow metric, it measures how quickly listings are deslisted. Median DOM (Active) measures the age of the inventory that is still on the market. More than half of Opendoor inventory has been on the market for less than 30 days, so that number is quite reasonable, but it’s not the same metric.

@maelan_sdmr @Aubermark Where are we getting our best sales data from at this point?

@ericjackson 💯

The stock is weak because of macro (rates at 6.33%), dilution (cleaning Wheeler's convert mess), and Q2 comps. But here's what the market is missing: there's a 2-quarter lag between homes acquired and homes sold. The acquisition ramp happening NOW won't show in sales until Q4.

Opendoor's new CEO was going to buy the entire company. Instead, he's rebuilding it in public. I built my position at $0.73. Published my $82 target at $0.87. The stock hit $10.87. Now it's back at $4.31. Here's why I still believe in $82 (...and $200 and $500).

@wwcapitalgroup @nejatian @morganb @fahdananta lol buddy, you don’t even know who Morgan is. He’s an all‑star. Keep calm and let him work.

@nejatian @morganb @fahdananta @nejatian I’d fire Morgan. Idk what he does alll day honestly. Morgan convince me you have a single clue what you’re doing. Fired

On this April Fools’ day I want to take a moment to commemorate all the hilarious corporate M&A jokes killed by humorless lawyers.