تغريدة مثبتة
Joining @MorningsMaria on @FoxBusiness in 5 mins.
Market Capitalization in January
2026: $35T
2025: $19T
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Lawrence McDonald
90.7K posts
Lawrence McDonald
@Convertbond
NY Times Bestselling Author, pick up "When Markets Speak" on Amazon. Long-time @RealVision @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport
New York, NY انضم Mart 2009
13.8K يتبع142.8K المتابعون
They were at $67 in December 2025, for year-end 2026.
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
UBS RAISES OIL FORECASTS FOR 2026-27 AMID MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS UBS lifted its oil price forecasts for 2026-27 following the Strait of Hormuz closure and ongoing Middle East conflict. The bank now expects $86 per barrel in 2026 (up $14) and $80 in 2027 (up $10). Analysts assume the conflict lasts another 2–3 weeks, keeping flows through the Strait sharply reduced, with gradual recovery starting in April but no full normalization.
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Priceless... $CNR equity...
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji
الفحم يستعيد عرشه.. حتى ملكة الخضر، ألمانيا، تعود له!
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Have a great weekend...
Morning Call@CNBCMorningCall
Today we are joined by our panel: @KRooneyVera, @Convertbond and Edward Mills of @RaymondJames, and they discuss a conflict likely to last longer than expected, a $200B Pentagon ask, energy and fertilizer shocks driving inflation and food prices higher, and rising recession and credit risks with @MorganLBrennan on @CNBCMorningCall cnbc.com/video/2026/03/…
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@SullyCNBC @MorganLBrennan Thank you, Morgan. Appreciate you having us on.
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This is BIG ... congrats to @MorganLBrennan and the entire team on the new Morning Call morning show! Love it.
Morgan Brennan@MorganLBrennan
This is *New* And we launch Monday 🚀 @variety @CNBC variety.com/2026/tv/news/c…
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Lawrence McDonald أُعيد تغريده
Private credit money is rushing for the exits. Larry McDonald, @Convertbond , Founder of The Bear Traps Report joins Trading Trends to discuss the private credit crisis w @CVecchioFX.
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Book Ideas - The playbook for the multipolar world, we need a whole new portfolio construction. Back in the top 10, thank you! Please tell a friend at lunch today.
amazon.com/gp/bestsellers…
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The PPI beat (headline +0.7%, core +0.5%, y/y 3.4%) is all services, fresh veggies (+49% lol), and other non-oil stuff, not the barrel, oil data here is as tame and low as it gets, no geopolitical heat reflected yet, with Grok.
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The crude oil component baked into producer energy prices (+2.3% m/m in final demand goods) had zero exposure to any $80+ volatility; that surge didn’t hit till early March.
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Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data?
PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on the 28th, even after the Iran strikes kicked off)....
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@PauloMacro Clown show, look at the calls vaporized yet again on a Jensen keynote, he’s 7 for his last 7.
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This NVDA is hysterical
First it's red bar *NVIDIA CEO SEES 2027 AT LEAST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS OF REVENUE
Now it's $1T for 2025-27.
Now look at the revenue line from bloomberg table...
ummm $216bn 2025 + 364b 2026 + $470b 2027 = $1.05T
did Jensen just guide down??
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Lawrence McDonald أُعيد تغريده
There are at least 6 problems in no particular order:
-mislabeling or intentionally disguising the amount SaaS exposure in some porfolios
-no concept of portfolio construction for some of the direct lending managers
-mismarking and/or marking inconsistencies across funds
-other uses of leverage away from the basic bank/bond/clo financing of direct lending - 2nd outs, jv’s, direct clo equity investments to juice returns and mask the real underlying leverage of the portfolio
-250bln of the direct lending market is in “semi-liquid” products where underlying isn’t liquid at all
-prisoners dilemma for LP’s of that last bucket - if you don’t redeem do you just get left with the turds?
Everyone has to make their own opinion on the SaaS and AI disruptions threatened loans. I think there will be a very interesting secondary opportunity as entities look to sell to meet redemptions or reduce exposure to areas they are too overweight. Right now though to your point Boaz the public BDC’s at .85 -.95 GAV - I look at GAV not EQUITY NAV bc the latter ignores the ultimate downside risk - are cheap to where these secondary private portfolios are offered/trading - I think there will be a convergence in the near future given the amount likely to come for sale.
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Lawrence McDonald أُعيد تغريده
Blue Owl…Blackstone…Blackrock…Cliffwater…Morgan Stanley…Deutsche Bank….
“Don’t worry, it’s idiosyncratic…”
“Just don’t ask for your money back!”
“Gotta go, Jamie Dimon is calling me.”
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@TraceyRyniec Everyone’s favorite sector in Q4, private credit weakness is “idiosyncratic” - so pathetic.
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Lawrence McDonald أُعيد تغريده
Deploy more warships from multiple countries to the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance premiums will stay sky-high—or many insurers will simply refuse coverage altogether—ensuring that the vast majority of oil and LNG tankers won't dare transit. Well done—mission accomplished!
If Iran's navy and military capabilities were truly 100% destroyed, leaving them only able to launch "a drone or two," as president Trump claimed, then how exactly would warships defend oil tankers from such threats? More importantly, why on earth would we need a multinational armada—warships from several countries—to protect commercial shipping against what would essentially be a handful of nuisance drones?"
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji
⭕️No matter how you slice it, something doesn't add up—especially given that Kharg Island was targeted early in the conflict. ⭕️Even if the entire island were turned into molten lava from volcanic-level destruction, the actual hit to Iran's oil export capacity would be s limited . Anyone claiming that bombing or seizing Kharg would cripple the regime's ability to keep oil flowing clearly doesn't understand Iran's oil infrastructure.
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Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets in a Multipolar World
2026
Coal $CNR +33%
Oil & Gas $XOP +33%
Natural Gas $FCG +27%
Gold $GLD +16%
Uranium $URNM +16%
Silver $SIL +13%
Copper $COPX +6%
Nasdaq $QQQ -3%
Mag 7 $MAGS -9%
Banks $KBWB -10%
Bitcoin $IBIT -19%
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