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David P. Ellis
15.9K posts
David P. Ellis
@DavidPBitcoin
Husband & father. Optimist. #BTC maximalist in spirit; profit maximalist in practice. Non-giver of financial advice.
US expat in Puerto Rico انضم Şubat 2014
26 يتبع5.8K المتابعون
@DavidPBitcoin @PeterSchiff It's perfectly sustainable if you take the position that over time bitcoin will grown by more than 11.5% a year.
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As much as I disagree with @PeterSchiff regarding gold and his irrational anti-#BTC stance, he is 100% correct regarding $MSTR and the long-term risk of $STRC.
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff
$MSTR was initially able to fund its Bitcoin buying spree by selling shares at a premium. Now it's forced to issue preferred shares with an 11.5% yield. Since MSTR has no earnings, this obligation can only be satisfied by selling more preferreds, discounted common, or Bitcoin.
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@chriskapilla To each their own, but decades of investing have led me to believe o/w. While I too own a boatload of $STRC atm, I am getting out as soon as I can invest in spot #BTC at a better price later in the cycle. Something that seems too good to be true always proves to be eventually.
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@DavidPBitcoin I have to disagree with you on this one...
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$STRC making a $1B purchase w/o no new $MSTR issuance is NOT bullish. Instead, it shows how people are desperately chasing yield via a completely new (and as yet unproven) asset rather than buying spot #BTC per se. This is literally the opposite of bullish.
James Van Straten@btcjvs
Three of the last five bitcoin purchases have been $1B or more. This one was entirely funded by STRC
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Short and sweet this month. Well, not so sweet, actually, but you get the point.
Go #BTC 🚀.
david06280728.substack.com/p/month-end-an…
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For those keeping score at home, price must close @ $67K or higher to close the month up. O/W, it will be a historically bad stretch of 6 straight down months. Either way, I will capture the data tonight and write up my month-end analysis w/in 48 hrs.
Go #BTC 🚀.
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@DPWorldTour Apologies to Matt for the appalling behavior of some US fans at the course, particularly on the 18th tee. We aren’t all so disgraceful.
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Matt Fitzpatrick appreciation post 👏
A final round 68 for second place at TPC Sawgrass.
#THEPLAYERS
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@sunny051488 I’ve perused it, as well as reading a variety of opinions on it. It’s obviously legitimate and regulated, but an 11.5% annualized return for something with such low volatility simply has never existed before. That is cause for concern, IMO, at least longer term.
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@DavidPBitcoin Have you read this prospectus for strc?
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
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I own a lot of $STRC, probably more than I should for such a new/novel asset. And that's the one thing that keeps me awake at night. If something seems too good to be true, it usually is. So here I sit, straddling the fence, hoping nothing blows up but concerned it may...
Phong Le@phongle
$STRC is more stable than MSTR, bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500, and investment grade bonds.
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Based on responses to my tweet, both publicly and privately, I should clarify I view my $STRC investment as temporary (as a substitute for money markets or savings). My intention is to buy (more) #BTC when I think the bottom is near. i.e., I only care about the next ~ 6 mos.
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@SatomotoC 35 years. To your latter question, no idea. I suspect if AI doesn’t bear fruit sooner than later, we might have another (at least temporary) collapse like dotcom bubble.
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@DavidPBitcoin How long you been in markets, David? Have you looked into when next secular bear will be?
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@ZuccottiPark Shoot, really sorry to hear that. Very very frustrating.
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@DavidPBitcoin The only thing that could blow up $STRC is BTC being compromised/undermined as the hardest money and that's exactly what's happening now with Core's governance, so it's risky holding both assets right now to a certain degree. I hope @saylor realise this. BIP 110 might solve this.
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@SatomotoC I didn't say that. I'm merely pointing out what should appear to be obvious despite the (dwindling) protests to the contrary: we are in the midst of a robust bear market.
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@DavidPBitcoin Thats dangerous. Dying asset? Hard to imagine
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Literally the only time #BTC price increases these days is when $MSTR buys in bulk within a short period of time. Not really sure what this means or why I'm tweeting about it, but just an observation.
Go #BTC (for a reason other than $MSTR) 🚀.
Strategy@Strategy
Strategy has acquired 17,994 BTC for ~$1.28 billion at ~$70,946 per bitcoin. As of 3/8/2026, we hodl 738,731 $BTC acquired for ~$56.04 billion at ~$75,862 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy…
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Done with my month-end analysis. Happy reading, and of course...
Go #BTC (up for a change, if you don't mind) 🚀.
david06280728.substack.com/p/month-end-an…
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Captured the February month-end data. I will write up my analysis as soon as I can, likely Monday morning US EST.
Go #BTC (the other direction) 🚀.
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@Matthew__Wong_ Timing is always tricky, but I would be shocked if we don’t see $50K again.
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There is ZERO evidence #BTC is starting to form a bottom - price is about to close lower the fifth straight month, something that has happened only once before (2018) - BUT, yes, enough w/conspiracies. This is a bear market; there are simply more sellers than buyers. So be it.
Matt Hougan@Matt_Hougan
The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else. The real reason bitcoin is down is that a bunch of people who were long Bitcoin sold their Bitcoin exposure. They sold it via spot, they sold it by unwinding leveraged positions, and they sold it be writing calls against their bitcoin. They sold because of the four year cycle and because of quantum fears and because they wanted to invest in AI start ups and for other reasons. They are mostly done selling and we are in the process of bottoming. We will set new all time highs in the future. This is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring. People want someone to blame — I get it — but the reality is far more boring than that.
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