Ivo

"Massive investment in AI contributed basically zero to US economic growth last year," per Goldman Sachs

THIS IS IT. I’m officially 95% out of the market. S&P 500 price now: 6,983 I’ve been in this game for more than 20 years. Here’s why I decided to get out: First of all, didn’t sell my long term BTC stack I’ve been holding since 2013-2015, my metals and real estate. Does that mean the market will crash tomorrow? NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT. I’m not a day trader. But there’s a good chance we’re very close to a market top and could drop 15–20% from here. The smartest founders in history are all rushing to the exit at the same time. – SpaceX – OpenAI – Databricks – Anthropic They’re aggressively targeting 2026 IPOs with a combined $4T valuation. They aren’t selling because they need cash. They’re selling because they’ve identified the top. We’ve seen this exact setup twice before. The 2000 Dotcom crash and the 2021 SPAC mania. Insiders use the window to distribute shares at unsupportable valuations (100x revenue). The math ain’t mathing. Big Tech are burning a shit ton of money trying to chase the AI narrative. – $400B in AI Capex – Only ~$20B in revenue return To justify this spend, they need $2 Trillion in new revenue by 2030. That isn't an investment. That’s a bubble. And look who else is leaving. Warren Buffett is sitting on a $300B+ pile of cash. He’s been aggressively selling into this rally. He doesn’t want to buy the dip. He wants to survive the crash. Then there’s the 2026 debt wall. Zombie companies survived on 0% interest rates, but now the bill is due. They have to refinance BILLIONS this year at significantly higher rates. Most won't survive it. Let’s see how this plays out. Keep in mind: I called the last 3 major market top and bottom publicly. When I start buying again, I’ll say it here for everyone to see. Many people will regret not following me sooner.