Jeremiah Fracson
3.3K posts
Jeremiah Fracson
@JFracson
Just where is it I could find oil, gas, and other minerals worth cash money when skinned? Don’t mind the spelling my mind works sorta differently
انضم Mart 2019
555 يتبع3.8K المتابعون
WERE JUST A COUPLE KIDS LIVIN THE DOUBLE WIDE DREAM
Dustin@okie_jayhawk
Gimme a hell fucking yeah
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@ShaleTier7 @tylermacro10 LNG go BOOM BOOM in far away desert, me like LNG that no go boom boom, me like feed computer in this desert
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@GreyHairOpsGuy Yeah, I think it’s a silly way to do business. It also makes them predictable which is something
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@JFracson Have you ever negotiated with PE? They act exactly like Trump. They threaten the nuclear option immediately and either use it or walk away. No middle ground.
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I’m just a dumb, but even I’ve learned that ego-based negotiation always leads to negative outcomes, which is what seems to be going on here. Egos are not logic-bound, thus they become detrimental to core deal objectives. Hard to see a deal getting done now that ego is out front
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
At the time of writing, no U.S. or Iranian negotiators have arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan for renewed negotiations, as the ceasefire deadline is set to expire within the next 24 hours
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@MattG_PE Absolutely, after all a rising tide floats all boats
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@JFracson And thus causing a structural reprising of the molecules
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If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a thousand times the modern major thesis will be transforming molecules to electrons
Rob Wilson@rleewilson21
Chevron + Microsoft just confirmed what we’ve been tracking: AI is becoming a major new demand driver for natural gas in Texas. Here’s what matters: • Chevron (CVX), Microsoft (MSFT) + Engine No. 1 are developing a massive West Texas data center • Initial capacity: 2.5 GW (potentially scaling to 5 GW) • Powered by on-site natural gas generation (GE Vernova turbines) • Targeting FID in early 2026, operations by 2027
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Mid-teens infra IRR is credible — exactly Chevron’s own Investor Day target.
They produce ~946 MMcf/d Permian associated gas. At current deeply negative Waha prices (April 2026 lows –$9.53/MMBtu, 47+ day streak, avg ~–$5), that’s a ~$4M–$9M daily paper drag at spot.
The $7B 2.5 GW plant (scalable to 5 GW) with Engine No. 1 will burn ~400-450 MMcf/d of it onsite + GE Vernova turbines to deliver firm 24/7 power straight to a colocated Microsoft AI data center via long-term PPA. Ops targeted 2027.
Turns a current liability into stable high-value revenue and boosts overall Permian returns. Smart molecules-to-electrons play.
For the Refining comparison: Chevron’s downstream business is mature/cyclical — solid high-single to low/mid-teens returns in good crack spreads, but structurally lower-return & more volatile than upstream (2025 company ROCE 6.6%, guides >$4B annual FCF at mid-cycle with low capex). No specific project IRR published.
In short, the inferred downstream return is ~8–11% (earnings/ROCE proxy or mid-cycle FCF yield), confirming why the molecules-to-electrons power play is viewed internally as an attractive capital-allocation upgrade.
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@JFracson @NiceQuarterGuys I’ve talked with Wirth and their power head extensively. This is a mid teens infra return. Contracts not creating massive upside for CVX.
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@NiceQuarterGuys @SweetBreeze713 Still objectively cheap by comparison, no? It’s the exact same rational of what makes the current thesis - sell to the end user not the refiner.
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@JFracson @SweetBreeze713 What happens when waha starts trading <$1 delta to Henry though?
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@zacurate Mainly 4.7 - I was just making a funny today, it’s been good so far today
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@JFracson Which model were you running? Saw some strange stuff yesterday when I ran Opus 4.7 for the first time just to see what it was like.
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Me after a 6 hour vibe code session session with Claude
“You see numbers are the language God used to build the universe & I’m starting to speak it”
Me after a six our and one minute
“We know nothing & I’m pretty sure I’m the stupidest man to ever walk the face of the earth”
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@SweetBreeze713 Do some research what natural gas goes for on Waha vs what they can sell an electron for - I bet you change your mind
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@JFracson Doesn’t make sense. It’s lower return. I’d much more prefer CVX invest in oil at $85. This is such a waste of time for them.
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Jeremiah Fracson أُعيد تغريده
Oil just dropped 11% because the Strait of Hormuz is “open.”
Let me show you why the market is making one of the biggest mistakes of 2026
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@EFMinerals @ShaleTier7 I can officially say 4.7 slaps, well today anyways
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You were right @JFracson @ShaleTier7
Claude@claudeai
Introducing Claude Opus 4.7, our most capable Opus model yet. It handles long-running tasks with more rigor, follows instructions more precisely, and verifies its own outputs before reporting back. You can hand off your hardest work with less supervision.
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