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$SPY I’ll buy at blue line (605) when you guys become panicans
John Wix@JimmyButlerCap
Plan for the week🧵: $SPY remains in a technical correction. Note de-grossing weeks (red arrows) come in pairs
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John Wix
6.8K posts
@taobanker think it’s bc that qqq vs spy variable. yes QQQ is outperforming SPY over the past month. if you incorporate more sector rotation (like fidelity does) you’ll find environments like energy up + financials down is typically bearish
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Bring out the 2022 playbook and put away your AI trades for now $NDX $QQQ
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRADERS BOOST FED HIKE BETS TO 50% AS YIELDS SPIKE US Treasury yields jumped after traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike to 50% by October, citing inflation risks from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Yields rose 9–13 basis points across maturities, with two-year notes most sensitive to policy. Five-year yields topped 4% for the first time since July, and the 10-year climbed to 4.33%, the highest since August. Money markets have shifted from expecting two rate cuts this year to pricing in possible hikes. “The Treasury market is worried about rising inflation as the Iran conflict escalates,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities’ US rates strategist.
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$VIST $PBR If the strait of Hormuz stays closed for say 6 months, you’re going to see a lot of compounding effects on mid-east oil infrastructure, but the gap will eventually get filled by regions that suddenly became economically viable for drilling
FrogButt@butt_watermelon
I feel like everyone forgets that the United States of America has insane amounts of oil that just requires around $100 a barrel to be profitable to extract.
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@rfkenmore Broken in chinos are really nice. Like the broken-in oxfords also
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WHAT MEN ARE NOT REGRETTING
1. Buck Mason
Heavyweight/Field-Spec T-shirts (100% cotton and sturdy)
2. J.Crew
Broken-in straight chinos (perfect chino fit between loose and slim)
3. Uniqlo
Tees and full-wardrobe basics (value)
Other mentions:
Barbour, Quince, New Balance, Filson, Carhartt, Vuori, LL Bean, Brooks Brothers, Patagonia
Quality, practicality, comfort
R.F. Kenmore@rfkenmore
Fellas From which clothing brand did you most recently make a worthwhile purchase? Work, gym, casual — anything
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@chat_SBC @taobanker What used to take a team of Accenture consultants and 18 months can be done in 3 months with agents for 1/10 of the cost
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@chat_SBC @taobanker The moat of software IS the switching costs. And switching costs are going down imo
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The moat in software is NOT the cost of building software. That’s key to why it was a good business to start with
Todd Saunders@toddsaunders
I heard an incredible analogy from a VC friend that I can’t stop thinking about. “The moat in software was the cost of building software. And Claude Code just mass produced a bridge.” It’s wild when you think about the impact of this. The SaaS boom produced a few dozen billionaires and a bunch of zero sum winners. But the AI SaaS era will mass produce millionaires. There will be fewer ServiceTitans hitting $5B valuations, and instead there will be 50,000 companies doing $500K-$5M each, run by 1-3 people with deep expertise and huge margins. To be clear, I believe that the total value of software goes up, and the number of companies created goes up exponentially. But the number of people who capture the value also goes up 100x. I don’t believe in the “SaaS is dying” headline, I think it’s missing the point. It’s simply that the power of SaaS is changing hands.
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@maldofino Good company, I just prefer LatAM bc it feels like that’s where the marginal barrel will be coming from to ease price pressures
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@JimmyButlerCap Have you looked at boring Equinor (called Statoil before). Has vertically integrated refineries with captive crude supply from their own upstream production.
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@maldofino The whole business of $LNG and $VG is exporting LNG to Europe
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@JimmyButlerCap No capacity to increase exports to Asia/Europe via LNG, so only domestic supply/demand is a factor, i guess. And there is enough supply domestically.
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Quick $VIST rundown:
-Argentina Fracking
-Increased production 60% YoY, adding 7% production per quarter
-Lifting cost $4.4/BOE
-Exported 22 million barrels in 2025, plans to double that by 2028
-At 10x trailing PE
If oil stays >$70, will make absurd amounts of money
John Wix@JimmyButlerCap
$VIST feels like it can be a monster stock this year
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$VIST feels like it can be a monster stock this year
John Wix@JimmyButlerCap
Did some research over the weekend $VIST is the best pure play over all of these
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