Julian Busch

Torn by the rivalry between two generals vying for power, much of Sudan has turned into a battleground, leading to one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. My dispatch from Sudan with photos from @HaigesVincent in @newlinesmag newlinesmag.com/reportage/suda…

“We have no shelter. Children are getting sick. Some didn’t survive the cold.” - Hessamuddin, an internally displaced person. @ICRC is distributing tents and shelter materials to 210 displaced families in #Khost, to protect them from rain and cold & to sleep under a roof again.

NEW: Drop Site has obtained classified documents about a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense agreement that has now been triggered in the context of the war on Iran. The agreement has gone has through numerous revisions over the years and now been expanded to commit Pakistan "to support the armed forces of [Saudi Arabia] in dealing with any threat that affects its security, safety, sovereignty, territorial integrity and interests." Pakistan has recently deployed large numbers of aircraft and equipment to Saudi Arabia as the war involving Iran, Israel and the GCC states drags on. At the same time, Islamabad is attempting to mediate a way out of a conflict that has become a critical risk to its own security. dropsitenews.com/p/leaked-saudi…

Well...it seems that Trump’s genius idea to open the Strait of Hormuz is to close it further! This can, of course, put pressure on #Iran in the long term, but the short- to mid-term effects on the U.S. and global economy are likely to be much more significant. One should not forget that in the past 40 days, Iran has been able to ship and sell its oil through the strait, while other oil-producing countries in the region have not. This means Iran is already 40 days ahead of others. At the same time, it is quite probable that, if Iran is not allowed to sell its oil, it will try to make it impossible for other actors, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to sell their oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. And once again, a casual reminder that the Bab el-Mandab Strait is not closed yet...

The main asymmetry is that Iran appears to have a better alternative to a negotiated agreement than does the US: In the absence of a deal, strikes on Iran will resume, but with diminishing marginal returns for the US, while the closure of the Strait will persist, with growing marginal returns for Iran. It doesn't mean Iran won't pay a significant price in the event talks collapse, which is a good reason why they agreed to them. It means that, rightly or wrongly, Iran feels it can sustain the price of a breakdown longer and better than the US can.

Here's the Iranian delegates to the talks. Never during the JCPOA did I see such a large & senior Iranian delegation. And Qalibaf may meet directly w/ Vance(!) Before, the Iranians refused such meetings. They agree now because they see themselves in a far stronger position.

Why is no one reporting that Israel bombed a synagogue in Tehran? This would be front page news if anyone else had done it.

🇨🇳🇦🇫🇵🇰 China brokers Afghanistan-Pakistan agreement to halt escalation in fighting Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed on Wednesday not to escalate their conflict and to pursue a comprehensive resolution to their disputes following seven days of peace talks mediated by China in the western city of Urumqi, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry announced. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said all parties acknowledged that “terrorism is the core issue” in the relationship and agreed to continue dialogue, though Islamabad offered no public comment on the outcome.

Tonight, Pakistan achieved one of its biggest diplomatic wins in years. It also defied many skeptics and naysayers that didn’t think it had the capacity to pull off such a complex, high stakes feat. But what matters the most is it helped avert a potential catastrophe in Iran.

I must say I had to doublecheck this was real.

Reports are coming in that people in Mahshahr cannot breathe due to the chemical pollution caused by the US and Israeli bombardment of the petrochemical factories there.

#Iran War Update No. 36 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹A key development on April 4 was Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In Tehran, this ultimatum has been analyzed from multiple angles. On the one hand, particularly in state media, there is an emphasis on portraying Trump’s threat not as a sign of strength but as an indication of desperation in dealing with a problem that did not exist prior to the war and has now become Iran’s primary lever. On the other hand, there is an expectation that Trump – especially in light of the recent setback suffered by U.S. air forces – may take bold action against Iran even before the ultimatum expires. 🔹At the same time, Israel’s strike on a key Iranian petrochemical complex in Mahshahr has been interpreted as a serious escalation, effectively initiating a campaign against Iran’s critical infrastructure even before the expiry of Trump’s ultimatum. In other words, this action is viewed not as an isolated event but as a precursor to a broader U.S.-Israeli escalation targeting vital infrastructure. 🔹This perception has fueled serious debates within pro-government analytical circles regarding the necessity of a firm and deterrent Iranian response. A recurring theme in these discussions is that threats of escalation and a focus on U.S. and Israeli military infrastructure have thus far failed to produce deterrence. Instead, the argument is that Iran should not wait for Trump’s threats to materialize but should act preemptively and decisively. The earlier strike on Ras Laffan in Qatar is frequently cited as a successful example that should be replicated elsewhere in the region. 🔹At the official level, however, Iran’s response so far has combined threats of broad escalation with continued attacks on “U.S.- and Israel-related targets.” In this context, claims of attacks on U.S.-linked industrial, radar, and commercial targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE are intended to signal that any expansion of the conflict into Iran’s economic infrastructure would expose the wider U.S.-oriented regional system. 🔹At the same time, part of Iran’s response continues to focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Some Iranian sources claim that among vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, those with links to Israel or the United States can be selectively targeted for retaliation. Reports suggest that the targeting of the MSC Ishyka, described as having Israeli ties, falls within this pattern. 🔹Another notable development on Day 36 of the war is a shift in how the Strait of Hormuz is being framed in Iranian media and analytical circles. Following earlier indications that Iran is seeking to establish a new legal regime for the strait – potentially in coordination with Oman – after the war, Iranian sources are now presenting it as a legitimate wartime order that even hostile powers may ultimately be compelled to negotiate around. 🔹This gives Tehran a stronger bargaining narrative. If Hormuz is framed as a governed space rather than a disrupted one, reopening it becomes a matter of political recognition rather than mere de-escalation. This helps explain why, over the past two weeks, Iranian sources have largely refrained from discussing a full closure or mining of the strait. While this could change, it nonetheless points to a longer-term political approach to this strategic waterway. 🔹At the same time, in a significant development, Iran’s armed forces announced that Iraq is exempt from “any restrictions we have imposed in the Strait of Hormuz,” allowing Iraqi vessels to transit freely. This marks the first time since the start of the war that ships from a specific country have been fully exempted from restrictions in the strait. 🔹This announcement followed large-scale public demonstrations in Iraqi cities such as Baghdad, Maysan, and Mosul in support of Iran and in condemnation of the U.S.-Israeli war. In effect, Iran appears to be implementing a system of reward and punishment in the strait. At the same time, Tehran likely hopes that this move will increase popular support for Iran in Iraq and across the wider region. 🔹At the operational level, Iran is emphasizing air denial as a capability it is increasingly restoring. Officially, Iran’s armed forces claim to be deploying “new air defense systems” capable of countering U.S. and Israeli aircraft. However, at the expert level, it is suggested that Iran’s recent success in targeting U.S. aircraft reflects tactical adaptation rather than a structural upgrade – particularly through the use of thermal detection and portable air defense systems (more on this to follow). 🔹Iranian reporting has also pushed back strongly against the notion that reduced missile visibility indicates reduced capability. The argument is that increased drone usage or mixed salvos should be understood as controlled expenditure and adaptation – especially in the context of a war of attrition – rather than depletion. In this regard, reporting by non-Iranian outlets such as The New York Times and CNN is also cited as evidence of Iran’s residual capabilities. 🔹On the diplomatic front, there are still no clear signs of Iranian willingness to compromise. However, Iranian officials have not categorically ruled out negotiations. After reports suggested that the Islamabad mediation track had collapsed due to Iranian objections, Iran’s foreign minister emphasized that Tehran has no issue with Pakistan, and that the core problem lies in Washington’s demands, which remain unacceptable to Iran. 🔹At the regional level, the Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen fronts remained active, though at varying intensities. In Lebanon, exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel continued. In Iraq, there were reports of new strikes on PMF positions, alongside the temporary closure of the Shalamcheh crossing following strikes near the border. The Houthis also announced the launch of their fifth missile attack against Israel since entering the war. At the same time, a major development is that all components of the “Axis of Resistance,” including Iran, are now explicitly emphasizing coordination and joint operations. 🔹Overall, Day 36 reflects both a gradual escalation in the infrastructure domain and the anticipation of a more sudden and severe escalation by Trump. Iran continues to pursue a combination of threats and calibrated actions to generate deterrence, though this approach is increasingly being questioned within Tehran. All of this is unfolding as there are not only no signs of Iran backing down on the Strait of Hormuz, but the strait itself is becoming more formally embedded as a core component of Tehran’s political-military strategy.

One should not read too much into Zarif’s article. It in no way represents a consensual view within the current Iranian leadership. As I told @BeckyCNN today, the very fact that he had to turn to Foreign Affairs to outline what #Iran should do to end the war is, in itself, a telling indication of his position within the current political landscape. There is indeed a faction within the broader political elite that supports the views expressed in the article, but these are not the actors currently shaping strategic decision-making.

NEWS: U.S. and Israeli officials acknowledged that Iran downed a U.S. fighter jet over its territory, according to The New York Times, as a search-and-rescue operation was underway and the fate of the crew remained unclear. Earlier, Drop Site reported that an Iranian official said a U.S. F-15 warplane was shot down over southern Tehran Province, with intense fire at the crash site, and that the strike prevented the pilots from ejecting, with no remains found.

A local source told TOLOnews that this evening (Thursday), the Pakistani military fired 15 mortar rounds on civilian areas in Moqbal area of Dand Patan district, Paktia province. According to initial reports, two civilians were injured. Meanwhile, Abdul Haq Fida, spokesperson for the 203 Mansoori Corps, also confirmed the clash to TOLOnews but said that the fighting has now stopped. #TOLOnews_English

Help is on the way…

This bit is what stood out to me from Zarif's @ForeignAffairs piece: his recognition that, while a prolonged war would be bad for America, the Gulf and the world economy, it would also end very, very badly for Iran foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/ho…

⚡️NEW from @DropSiteNews: Pakistan Plays Peacemaker While Bombing and Blockading Afghan Civilians While working to mediate an end to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the Pakistani government is escalating its own war against civilians on the border with Afghanistan. By @Emran_Feroz dropsitenews.com/p/pakistan-pea…

It is a choice to work as a freelancer in conflict zones, but… It’s a choice made inside a system with limited alternatives, jobs are scarce and allocated through networks rather than merit alone. The industry also depends on freelancers while not always offering protections

This story on US journalist Shelly Kittleson is an unsettling read for freelancers - the framing is one of personal choice over systematic failure. A disproportionate number of the journalists killed, kidnapped and injured in conflicts are freelancers. apnews.com/article/iraq-k…

Reports emerging that more major Iranian pharmaceutical site have been hit. Aim of these kinds of bombings is obvious: to project state failure/collapse once the war is over. Remarkable how a tiny country of 8 million is singlehandedly destroying international law.