MMK

@TimelessArie You can build a waterfront. See palm jumeirah or palm jebel ali in UAE.

Supply is the only real moat in real estate investing. Seriously. The Vikings raided Britain because only 3% of Norway is farmable. Scarcity shaped an entire civilization's behavior - the inheritance laws, the raiding culture, the expansion across the North Atlantic. That stodgy supply & demand function we all learned about in economics, back in the long ago. It still works. The basis of all investing is to a) own something scarce and b) that other people want. There's your supply and demand function. That's why bitcoin has worked, to an extent — people want it, and (arguably) because it's scarce. But real estate is interesting because it has intrinsic economic value. People pay to use it. It will always have "some" value, regardless of what the market thinks about it on any given day. Here's the problem, though: forecasting demand is a tough business. Lots of things seemed like no-brainers ahead of time and didn't pan out. The Sunbelt operators underwrote 7% annual rent growth in 2021. The office tower developers who assumed remote work was a blip. Steve Jobs once said the Segway would be bigger than the PC. He was one of the greatest product visionaries in history. Even he couldn't manufacture demand that wasn't there. I believe that demand-side plays are risky. You can more easily forecast a lack of supply. You cannot very easily build a mountain. You cannot build a waterfront. You cannot manufacture the tech job density that took 40 years to accumulate. Portland's construction pipeline has effectively collapsed — permits at multi-decade lows. Seattle's Capitol Hill is hemmed in by water, zoning, and geography on all sides. This is just math. A more conservative approach, in my opinion: focus on supply constraints coupled with economic utility. Let the demand take care of itself. Tell me where I'm wrong — or tell me the market you're watching for supply constraints right now.

@aleabitoreddit What about Chalcogenide Glasses and Zinc Selenide?

I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M). Lightpath is incredible. Every modern thermal weapon (Missiles, Drones) requires Germanium glass, which China owns (70%) LPTH is the only US alternative with: Black Diamond Users? - $ONDS - L3Harris - Lockheed - Andruil (likely) - $UMAC - RTX/Raytheon or Northrop Grumman for the most recent $18.2M contract. Ondas: Iron Drone Raider(counter-UAS interceptor drone) and Optimus uses LPTH for Thermal Camera Cores. L3Harris SPEIR uses Lightpath for Infrared Camera Assemblies on Arleigh Burke-class Destroyers. Lockheed Martin Stinger Missles and M-SHORAD uses Lightpath for Missile Seeker Optics. Anduril likely uses Lightpath for The Ghost (Autonomous Drone) for Uncooled LWIR (Long Wave Infrared) Cameras. Unusual Machines uses Lightpath for Attack Drones (Molded Thermal Lenses). RTX or Northrop (one of them) uses Lightpath for Advanced Tactical Pods or Next-Gen Missile Seekers suing Infrared Camera Systems. This literally is the only Western alternative required for modern weaponry and drones. Lightpath now has an amazing balance sheet: ~$75–80 million in cash (with -$5M debt) -FY 2025 $37.2 Million. FY 2026 est. ~$61.6 Million - FY 2025 Gross 27.2%, FY 2026 35-40% by year-end. - FY 2025 Backlog ~$40 Million. FY 2026 Backlog $90+ Million. They are sold out. Expanding margins. And majority of the top US defence contractors now use Lightpath as a Western alternative to China's supply chain of Germanium glass. Absolutely incredible company, I don't say this very often. So I personally went long on Lightpath as military contractors will rely on them in the future for advanced weapons.

@aleabitoreddit 0 debt but out of the money warrants outstanding? Isnt this a contradiction?

I've initiated a position in $VLN ($155M MC). This one is wild. Valens is a AI semi for self-driving cars and robotics. I've found that markets messed up on VLS from a ticker collision data error. And missed new CES 2026 info this week. VLN has: 1. $93.5M in Cash, 0 Debt. 2. ~$11M inventory 3. High gross margins ~69.1% (CIB/ProAV) margins, 43.2% automotive. and projected to do $70M+ revenue with blended 63-65% gross margins, jumping from 43% from their automotive pivot from CES. At $155M MC. What? This just looked way too off at first glance, so I had to do more research, whether it was revenue collapse, dilution, cashflow problems, or regulatory risk. What happened? The mispricing was from an analyst/scanner typo regarding a $82M "inventory burn": VLN is effectively a company with $93.5M Cash and Zero Debt for an EV of ~$65M, while the market has punished it for an "inventory crisis" that literally does not exist. Streetwise's analysis + other scanners around Nov 13, 2025 typo'ed their report when they erroneously stated: "Inventory of US$82 million remained in line with the end of the second quarter". The market and algorithms that scan for the reports thinks $VLN is sitting on >1 year of dead inventory ($82M) and burnt through their $93.5M cashpile on unsold chips. We can mathematically prove this is a typo using the company's official Q3 2025 balance sheet: Total Assets: $136.7M Cash: ~$93.5M Remaining Room for Assets: $136.7M - $93.5M = $43.2M. If inventory were actually $82M, Total Assets would have to be at least $175M ($93M cash + $82M inv). This inventory figure is mathematically impossible. After looking at their financial reports, they are sitting on just ~2 months of inventory ($11M), only selling what they make. The analyst + algorithms wrote spread the report confused Valens Semiconductor (VLN) with Velan Inc. (VLN.TO), a Canadian industrial valve manufacturer (with that inventory amount). Even LLMs that read this, completely messed up and required manual review. $VLN actually only has ~$11M in inventory as a fabless chip company and did not burn through $82M. This looks like a genuine market inefficiency because you are looking at a clean balance sheet ($93M cash, $11M inventory, $0 debt) that has been artificially suppressed because of $82M cash burn fears on dead inventory due to the type. _ Now, the secondary aspect is new CES information that came out. $VLN spent years and millions on R&D for DSP engines for Mercedes, which presented single customer concentration risk for the automotive segment. But from the CES release this week, they've effectively took the same that exact same engine, and managed to sell it to many hot verticals that have the exact same physics problem. They've also managed to scale their previous automotive segment with new T1 automotive OEMs. But regarding their (VS6320 vs. VA7000) chipset, they are using the same Core IP (DSP). Medical Chip: They took the same engine from the auto chip and stripped out the car-specific features to create a Extender for the medical segment . And my favorite is the Machine Vision/Robotics vertical: The new information is that with the RGo Robotics partnership they announced, RGo integrated Valens chips which allowed RGo to design robots where the cameras are far away from the brain without signal loss. And at CES they also announced one with CIS Corporation (a Japanese camera maker) for another specific robotics win. They've effectively diversified their automotive segment into multiple other high growing + higher margin verticals for robotics computer vision to others. Again, the alpha is that their new robotics segments announced at CES, operate on a 6-month sales cycle, not the 5-year automotive cycle. So revenue actually hits this year too. Also, analysts were using blended automotive revenue (Mercedes, etc.) has lower gross margins (~42-45%). The new growth coming in now (Robotics/Medical via VS6320) has significantly higher margins (VS6320 Gross Margin: ~69-70%), so the the blended gross margins will likely come in significantly higher than street consensus. _ Now the downside? Extremely heavy dilution at $11.5 Strike from warrants (which is 10X+ from here). This will cap upside if it ever increases 1000% from $1.5 to $11.5 _ TLDR: The market expected 2026 with high cash burn from inventory risk from a ticker collision typo. Instead, they are likely to get: Revenue and earnings beat (driven by new verticals and much higher blended margins ~69%+ from new chip). As well as an $70M+ cashflow beat from the typo. We could see $85-$92M revenue off 63-65% blended gross margins and that $82M+ in cash modeled back into this $155m company. The algorithms are pricing $VLN as if it has <1 year of runway due to a phantom $82M inventory pile (off of a poison pill data point). So this is my own personal thesis from public information synthesis on why I entered this trade, NFI. So while I don't expect this to be a $2B+ company, the current MC is just completely irrational pricing for a $155M MC semi: - with $93.5m in cash - $11m in inventory, - est. $80m+ revenue (growing 20%-30%+ Y/Y) - with 60%+ gross blended margins. Fabless semi companies with 60%+ gross margins typically trade at 4x–8x EV/Revenue and sector average valuations would be $493.5M, from $155m as a conservative base case. Just slight "AI/Robotics" Premium, could value it at $653.5M with 7 E/V (~320%+) TLDR: Found that this company likely got artificially suppressed because of a typo + ticker collision from false $82M inventory burn and is about to enter a newer higher margin + growth cycle from new verticals. I am taking advantage of a database collision error.

@emiliemc Emilie, your issues at coinbase are far more basic. Example: foreign passport holders residing in UAE are just not able to update KYC... So coinbase is lacking the most basic functionalities all other competitors do since ages.

At Coinbase, it's a fireable offense to create a new committee that has not been explicitly approved by Brian or myself. In the vast majority of cases, spreading authority across multiple people is inefficient. And once you’ve added an unnecessary layer of bureaucracy to something, it's harder to remove. Each new committee compounds, further slowing the business down - best to avoid this wherever possible.

@JackNiewold @RobinhoodApp This is wild!

In July I mistakenly sent $5K in USDT (Solana) to @RobinhoodApp. As they only support USDC, they told me they couldn’t access or recover the funds. I recently checked the address, and Robinhood has since moved the USDT out. So… which is it? You can’t access the wallet, or you get to use my $5K as you please? @AskRobinhood @RobinhoodComms (any amplification appreciated)

@MichaelAArouet US GDP 82k$ vs EUROPE GDP <60k$...

@vonderleyen EU levied more tariffs than US for years. Now you admit its a tax on our ppl. Why did you do this bad policy for years?

Europe did not start the tariff confrontation. Tariffs are taxes, paid by the people. But Europe has everything to protect our people and our prosperity. We will always promote & defend our interests and values. And we will always stand up for Europe. twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@vonderleyen @EUinSA What is your CO2 footprint?

📍Touchdown in Cape Town for the 🇪🇺🇿🇦 Summit Our goal: to strengthen our strategic partnership with South Africa across the board. Taking our cooperation on trade, investments, critical raw materials and clean energy to the next level. And with a new Global Gateway package.

We just provided some information for a nation state asking about Bitcoin ETFs. Considering moving some exposure from foreign currency govt bonds into BTC. Bitcoin is entering a new chapter —

Pssst: If you wanna long bitcoin, you can do it now at 5.1% pa cost with IBKR via IBIT (39% margin ratio). If you wanna short bitcoin, you can do it at 13.6% pa yield with Binance. Get your banking rails sorted and get rich!

Perfectly articulated

@CL207 Been there, seen it. You should go there too. Pretty safe country with nice ppl.

grass plains > dry desert > into himalaya mountains at 📌sary mogol, kyrgystan everything around tibetan plateau does not dissapoint, theres so much to look at

@Gold_Mansack @bkclaims different risk profile. We need to compare apples with apples. Cash-and-carry is the benchmark for 'risk free returns' (ignoring cp risk).

@MMKustermann @bkclaims if you sold your claim at 125 when btc was 55k, then buy btc w proceeds, that would have been a better trade

Seems there is little reason to sell now. No Tax and potential buyers seem to have higher cost of capital than what can be achieved with cash-and-carry right now. Best strategy to just sit on your hands and wait for the check(s) in your mail? @bkclaims, what is your take?

Breaking: @BindseilUlrich and @schaaf_jurgen from @ecb warn the population that not holding bitcoin or buying bitcoin too late might lead to impoverishment. Read the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… This is big. Basically they argue the earlier one leaves the Euro, the better.

@TheBootMex USYC on DERIBIT does the trick.

Ethena $ENA / $USDe was supposed to become the ultimate solution to earn interest while using your stablecoin as collateral; but it doesn't seem like you can actually do it just yet? (or can you?) Did anybody come up with anything smart how to both earn our interest (instead of giving Tether free money) and have stables in collateral accounts for trading?

Even w/o 150%+ the NPV of claims is astonishing right now. We have 100% in like 0.5 years, another 20 or so in lets say 2 years and 23 in 3 years? UST is somewhere at 4%, so NPV is around 137 right now. Even if you assume 'crypto native' yields of 9% its >130. Buyers at 135?

So we get options on IBIT, but IBIT itself is not marginable? Trying to get my head around how MMs are gonna hedge, but if they need to put up their own equity for the delta hedge, its going to be super expensive, isnt it?

All things considered, ftx liquidated its holdings at pretty good prices. Looks like sometimes lawyers outperform traders. If this is the case for you, consider reevaluating your edge!

@rajatsoni So which countries will profit most? Where do americans go?

I've been saying this for a while "The US will increase capital gains tax rates" After taxes go up, they will come after taxes on income Then unrealized capital gains 🤣 This is what leads to "capital flight" When the wealthy leave, they take all their money, ideas, leverage, and connections with them Why would the wealthy stay in the US when they pay way more in taxes... vs living somewhere where they can produce whatever they want and pay less in taxes?