Princeton Policy

@DrEliDavid @EfratLachter Because, remember, a global economic oil shock is an acceptable price to pay for an additional 5-10 years of nuclear moratorium for Israel. That seems to be your argument.

The naval blockade is working amazingly well. Keep going until they collapse! A great review of the latest by @EfratLachter 👇 foxnews.com/world/trump-bl…

@glcarlstrom What stubbornness, Greg? Iran has indicated that they'll take money for concessions. The US is unwilling to contemplate commensurate money. This is a straight-up structuring and valuation exercise if money's in play. princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

At the end of the day, though, Iran desperately needs a way out of its economic doom loop. If it can't translate tactical wins into a deal that provides significant sanctions relief, stubbornness may end up looking like a self-defeating strategy

@gbrew24 By my count, Iran has 14 open land and maritime borders with 9 of those countries either neutral or sympathetic to Iran. N. Korea has two-ish. Cuba has zero. And yet Cuba and N. Korea still endure with economies in far worse shape than Iran's.

I hear this quite a lot--if Iran can withstand US pressure, what's to stop them from continuing this standoff indefinitely? The leadership wants a deal to end the war--resolving the confrontation on favorable terms is the endgame, and ultimately why they fought the war as aggressively as they did. A perpetual state of "no war, no peace" is not their preference. Nor is it sustainable.

@AmbDennisRoss We're not close a deal. The US is not willing to throw money into the pot. Without that, it's all about demanding concessions from Iranians. Why would they do that? You want a deal with the existing regime? It's going to look something like this: princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

Another week and claims of being close to a deal with the Iranians. Perhaps at some point this will be true. But we need to hear the Iranians saying it and they aren’t.The gaps remain the same—control of the Straits and their nuclear program. The IRGC aren’t conceding on either.

@marklevinshow Duh. This is an integral part of conflict planning. And it clearly was not done by the US, Israel, or frankly, anyone else.

Russia shipping weapons to Iran. Imagine what they’ll do if the regime survives after we leave. China too.

@ChrisMurphyCT 1/ Chris, this is really, really simple. The Iranians have already indicated that they will take cash for concessions. So the US has to be willing to put cash into the deal, which it has not yet. If it would, then it's just a plain vanilla structuring and valuation exercise.

@ChrisMurphyCT 2/ The resulting deal would look a lot like this. No cash or reparations from the US. Most of the cash comes from lifting sanctions and increased Iranian oil sales, plus a Gulf states stability and reconciliation fund. princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

I want this war to end - now. And I want a deal that constrains Iran's nuclear program. But what we are learning is that any deal Trump gets - and a deal is still very unlikely - is going to be WAY worse than the nuclear deal he cancelled a decade ago. 1/ Here's what we know:

@BrettErickson28 @CharlesSarno3 It's measurable. Despite an S/D gap of 7 mbpd per the EIA, global markets have held up surprisingly well, in part because inventories were somewhat elevated before the war, and in part, one suspects, because China is releasing more of its inventory than reported.

@BrettErickson28 @CharlesSarno3 On paper, the world blows through excess inventories at the end of May, but I have seen end of June for the US. If you want to know what happens, here are some pro forma graphs:

@CharlesSarno3 I worry the damage a wasted 26 days and counting will have on the world…

Today, I will be providing and examining four timelines from four separate sources on the timeline until Iran is forced to shut-in their oil wells. Each source has very different viewpoints... but one clear timeline. We'll start with myself. I have been a very vocal counterweight to the infamous 13 day timeline. This will not come as a shock to you. However, the reality is... at least on this? I've been right. A broken clock... Per my own assessment, I have set forth the following estimate: Current Length of Blockade: 26 Days Available On Shore Storage: 5-15 Days Total Tanker Storage: 21-35 Days Additional Extension via Trucking, Un-Mothballing, Rail (Conservatively): 7 Days Total BEST CASE Estimated Timeline: 57-81 Days Now, lets examine the timeline of Miad Maleki from Foundation For Defense of Democracies, which was what he put forth to Fox News during a recent Bret Baier Special Report. It will come as no surprise that Miad and I have heavily disagreed on this exact topic, which is why I find including his updated assessment to be particularly damning: "Iran has about 13 days worth of storage onshore available, and they have around 15-18 tankers in the Persian Gulf that will take about 30-45 days to fill up." This statement was delivered to Fox News from Miad on May 4th. I have updated the timeline to reflect today, May 9th: Current Length of Blockade: 26 Days Available On Shore Storage: 10 Days Available Tanker Storage: 27-42 Days Total Timeline: 64-79 Days Again, it should be reiterated that my timeline, published on May 2nd, falls almost perfectly in line with Miad's delivered on May 4th. 57-81 days, 64-79 days. Total timeline from today: Myself: 31-55 days Miad: 38-53 days Lastly, I want to present reporting from @farnazfassihi at The New York Times, which cites two sources: Homayoun Falakshahi, Head of Oil Analysis at Kpler, and an anonymous Iranian oil official. Per reporting from Farnaz, Falakshahi assesses a timeline of 25-30 days from May 6th. Updated for today, that is a remaining timeline of 22-27 days. This is the most aggressively optimistic of the four. The unnamed Iranian oil official puts the remaining timeline at 40-45 days. Updated for today, 37-42 days. Taken together, the timelines are as follows: Kpler: 22-27 Days Remaining Brett Erickson: 31-55 Days Remaining Miad Maleki: 38-53 Days Remaining Iranian Oil Official: 37-42 Days Remaining Average between the four: 32-44 Days Remaining Total Average Projected Timeline from Blockade Imposition to Shut-In: 58-70 Days (... I did pretty good) I will add this one last, and very large caveat: Iran still has substantial options to further extend this timeline. Dumping oil, burning oil, mass-infiltrating the blockade, and other creative measures that desperate times call for as this timeline begins to lessen. With that said... Iran has twice shut-in previously in 2012 and 2019, and did so without "exploding their oil infrastructure".

@BrettErickson28 I never rely solely on anything. Basically, take the Iraq numbers x 3.5 for pop and area and that gives you 400,000 troops, 12-16 years of occupation and $4 trillion in cost to take Iran.

@BrettErickson28 1/ I am pretty shocked at how superficial the analysis of Iran is, on every side. I read everywhere, "Finish the Job", but not one commenter has put a number on that. Very well. I have. (You know, Claude can do research and analysis.)

There is only one option left from Donald Trump to save his rapidly disintegrating legacy: Boots on the Ground. I know, I know, "but Brett, he can't do that, he campaigned on no new wars!"... And yet... here we are. As the Iran War continues to drag on, and as recent reporting from The Washington Post on the CIA analysis that showed a 3-4 month timeline before Iran really begins to feel the squeeze of our economic warfare campaign (which would be unlikely to topple the regime regardless), President Trump is watching the strategy he went all-in on prove to be nothing but a fantasy. At this point in the War, I'm not sure even the most ardent supporters of DJT can truly look in the mirror and say, "we won. This was a success". The War has been a failure. You know it, I know it, and most importantly, President Trump knows it. But if The Don had "only" made this one misstep, and had followed through on everything else he campaigned on... you win some, you lose some. Right? Wrong. President Trump's legacy, once viewed by many as quite stellar after his first term, has rapidly soured as a result of repeated "excursions", as well as his obvious refusal to release the Epstein Files. If Donald Trump cannot turn this ship around in Tehran, the Iran War and the Epstein Files will be what he is remembered for. Not his hotels, not his casino's, not MAGA... Epstein + Iran. And now, 25 days into "13 Days to Flatten Iran's Oil", it is clear that his "sit and wait" strategy will not be effective. Air campaigns did not work. The blockade and economic warfare strategy did not work. Threatening to end their entire civilization, shockingly, did not work. But with DJT now DESPERATE to save his legacy, desperate to produce a REAL WIN in Iran, I fear that the only viable pathway to accomplishing this will be putting boots on the ground. Not because it is the RIGHT move, but it is the only viable move that could LEGITIMATELY produce a win at this point. To be clear... I do not in any way advocate for boots on the ground, I do not agree with boots on the ground, but I also see the writing on the wall that says, "this is the only solution he has left to save his legacy".

@BrettErickson28 2/ I read 'regime change'. No one says what that means other than some unspecified Iranian people in an unspecified place will rise up in some unspecified way and take power somehow, and that new power will open the Strait, give up nukes, and be nice people. Give me a break.

@BrettErickson28 3/ So, yes, I did my homework and worked through the necessary steps to obtain what you and I ordinarily think of regime change, that is, a transition from dictatorship to democracy. So that's a plan: We know who, what, where, when and how. It's not abstract--but not easy.

@PrincetonPolicy It's Brett. You're grounded.