Princeton Policy

We have a year’s worth of economic data since Liberation Day, when President Trump announced much higher tariffs on most imported goods and countries, and the data are definitive; the tariffs have done significant damage to the economy. Since that day, job growth has come to a standstill, with only the non-traded healthcare industry adding meaningfully to payrolls. Also, since that day, inflation has accelerated, with the consumer expenditure deflator increasing at a 3% year-over-year pace, up from 2.5% before the tariffs and well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. And the trend lines don’t look good, especially as the economic fallout from the Iran War hits with full force. The higher energy and other commodity prices caused by the war threaten to do even more economic damage than the tariffs, further undermining growth and pushing inflation higher. The U.S. economy is resilient, but just how resilient is set to be tested.

@AmbJohnBolton The logic is backward. If I want political support for a war with Iran, I would seek out Congressional support.

The War Powers Act is unconstitutional, ineffective, and a distraction. If Congress wants to stop our military action in Iran, it can use the power of the purse. youtu.be/DEJrdlE_xDg?si…

@mdubowitz OK. That's what this does. princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

The Islamic Republic is illegally occupying the great nation of Iran. It must be abolished to free Iran.

@maxmeizlish This is a very important point. The longer the war goes on, the greater the odds and means of China entering the fray. China instructing its teapot refineries to purchase Iranian crude is but one example of the thin -- or at least a thin -- end of the wedge.

@maxmeizlish Now imagine if China extended territorial guarantees to Iran.

Before the war, it would have been a major news story for Treasury Secretary Bessent to say China is funding Iran by purchasing 90% of the regime's oil exports. Now, the world is just waiting to see what Treasury will do about it.

@RepDonBacon That it can blow up the UAE export pipeline?

The ceasefire has ceased. Time for Iran to learn another harsh lesson.

@JohnCornyn If you actually believe that, you should be pushing for Congressional authorization.

Pathetic Schumer: Let the Iranian regime get a nuclear weapon and wipe Israel off the map.

@StrickerNonpro The preparation for this war was a total clusterf**k.

A thought experiment: perhaps it is this cohort of mutually reinforcing analytical hysteria and progressive media amplification that is incorrect, myopic, and ideological.

@mitchellvii A barrel has 42 gallons. $10 / barrel = $0.24 / gallon. Call it 25 cents per $10 / barrel. So $3 is about 8 cents a gallon, not $0.50 per gallon.

Well oil went up $3 today. That means prices at the pump will be $.50 higher tomorrow. And when oil falls back down to $80, pump prices will take a month to retreat. Instant up, slow down. Gas retailers are SCREWING US.

@mitchellvii Is Billy Mitchell waking up?

@tperkins @mikepompeo None of those are essential.

A conundrum. No negotiated solution “actually gets to a place where the regime will acknowledge Israel's right to exist, that the United States should exist, and that the Iranian regime should not be in possession of a nuclear weapons capability.” Good insight from @mikepompeo.

@jakluge A German who can add and subtract. Unusual in the Twitter sphere. (Unusual for anyone in the Twitter sphere.) princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

Oil prices are way, WAY too low to cause demand destruction. Look at 2022. Oil prices were as high as today for months. Oil demand GREW! To cause a major dent in demand, prices have to rise towards $150-$200. Current prices only make sense if you think Hormuz will open real soon.

@NiohBerg 3/ It requires some intelligence, focus and consistent but balanced pressure from the US administration. There is no one in the White House remotely capable. princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

For the attention of the USA and Israel: This is a two step manual for liberating Iran, ending the islamic regime and ending this 47 year long nightmare, in the event that the war restarts for real. If you truly want this all to be over, the key isn't to target missile sites or oil or energy infrastructure. That won't fix anything. -- STEP ONE-- Shift your focus towards the regime's internal suppression apparatus - IRGC basij checkpoints, courthouses, bases, police stations and assassinations of all influential figures who oversee oppression of civilians. Do this while leaving the Iranian national army (Artesh) mostly untouched (they are useless and irrelevant, and we'll need them on our side when this is all over) If Mojtaba is somehow alive, make sure he isn't anymore. But more importantly, take out the judiciary and basij leaders who oversee arrests, torture, executions and massacres. Revolution must happen from the inside. Real change has to be facilitated by the Iranian people, it can't be done by foreigners. But that can't happen without the right conditions. Iranians want to rise up again, but it's been barely 4 months since the horrific massacre. It was beyond traumatic. A lot of damage has been done to the regime so far, but it isn't enough. The Mossad drone attacks on checkpoints should ramp up thousandfold. They were extremely effective, and caused both panic and defections. Iranians are still unarmed, and need to know they won't face impossible odds. If the streets of major cities empty out because IRGC thugs don't dare to show up, a successful revolution will follow. The rial is almost at 2,000,000 per dollar. Misery is now the standard even for people who used to be considered wealthy. I assure you revolution is inevitable. And once that happens, you no longer have to worry about destroying missiles or nuclear sites. --STEP TWO-- Internet. Reconnect Iran. End the blackout. How can a revolution happen when people can't communicate? It's 2026 and losing the internet is like losing a vital limb. Use whatever tech possible to end the blackout. Combine this with step 1 to properly facilitate an Iranian overthrow of the regime. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

@NiohBerg 2/ This requires consistent pressure on the theocratic elements, the Supreme Leader (who becomes a constitutional theocrat), the Guardian Council (which becomes the Supreme Court); the President, who becomes ceremonial, Italian style; and the IRGC, who may have to be elminated.

@NiohBerg 1/ Regime change in Iran comes from elevating the Majlis as the legitimate governance body in Iran. If Iran has representative democracy, then the country will be fine, and so will everyone else. It requires 12 specific amendments to the Iranian constitution.

@NiohBerg How long did you take on that? Maybe an hour?

@AdamKinzinger You might like this. Real regime change in Iran, what it takes.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/…

If this “escort mission” in the strait becomes anything real, (ie Trump announces a lot and never follows thru) then it would be a decent option among bad ones. Mostly open the flow and keep Iran embargoed. That said, i cannot imagine it happening without having to clear the land around the strait. But hopefully it can

@AdamKinzinger Iran can hit vessels anywhere in the Gulf. And it hit UAE export infrastructure today. It's not just the Strait, Adam.