Sailing Assets

@PeterSchiff @saylor Saylor didn’t buy Bitcoin for 5-year returns. He bought it as a treasury reserve. Measuring his thesis against T-bills misses the point entirely. He’s betting the dollar collapses, not that Bitcoin outpaces bonds. Wrong benchmark = wrong analysis.

IEA's 400M barrel release sounds massive. 2022 Ukraine: 182M barrels covered 100% gap 2026 Hormuz: 400M covers ~45% of a ~15mbpd gap over 2 months. Daily release ~6.7mbpd (spread over ~60 days) vs ~15mbpd missing. 4 days global supply, ~20 days Hormuz flow. SPR dumps buy 3 months. Not forever. #OilCrisis #IEA #EnergyMarkets

@van00sa Fuel hikes bury everything else. Food, flights, freight- all climb.

When oil spikes everything gets more expensive. Fuel is the cost underneath every other cost. It moves food, medicine, and goods. When it spikes, inflation follows within weeks. We’re already seeing it now- Petrol is up 50 cents a litre in Australian cities since late February Diesel shortages are hitting regional areas and farmers mid planting season Jet fuel is tightening, airfares are next Shipping costs are rising which flows into the price of everything imported. The most hidden hit is interest rates. If fuel driven inflation stays elevated, the rate cuts don’t happen. Every mortgage holder pays for that. Goldman Sachs just raised US recession odds to 25% We might not feel a war but we do feel $3.20 at the gas station and food bills that keep rising.

@JaguarAnalytics I highlighted $VG several times in January - hodler since October 2025

Imagine spending countless number of hours daily talking about Strait of Hormuz and not recognizing the opportunities in $LNG, $GLNG, $PBR, $YPF, $VG, etc. What a complete waste of your precious time.

@meg19696 @TheStalwart It’s hard to follow this guy…

@SailingAssets @TheStalwart Who says that line all the time? TRUMP! This is a trump script!

*NETANYAHU: WAR WILL END LOT FASTER THAN PEOPLE THINK

@LukeGromen From 70 to almost zero. Checkmate.

"It is legitimate to judge an event by its outcome for it is the soundest criterion." -Clausewitz

@SJosephBurns Volatility pours stronger than whiskey.

This market is going to drive some people to drink. Stay strong.

@SpencerHakimian War enthusiasm died with forever wars. 7% is polite applause for drones only.

🚨BREAKING: ONLY 7% OF AMERICANS SUPPORT TROOPS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN

@TimmerFidelity You’re not in a bull market until the laggards join the party.

My focus continues to be on the Mag 7, which has remained in its narrow range since last October.  Should we break the lows, the broader indices will be at risk of a deeper correction.

@cryptorand the hype was real- crypto was crazy about it.

@SailingAssets Yeah, it was a short lived narrative.

⚠️ Meta is shutting down its Metaverse, a $80 Billion collapse: In 2021, Mark Zuckerberg was so confident in the metaverse that he renamed his entire company after it. Facebook turned into Meta. The stock immediately lost $700 billion in value. That should've been the sign. But instead of pivoting, he doubled down. Then tripled down. Then quadrupled down every single year for five straight years. Each year the losses grew. Each year the vision stayed the same. Each year fewer people cared. Peak users: 300,000. The target was 1 billion. He missed by 99.97%. 20 million headsets sold. More than half abandoned within six months. Turns out people don't want to attend meetings as a cartoon with no legs. 21,000 employees fired. 1,500 more from Reality Labs alone. And now, Horizon Worlds is officially shutting down in June 2026. $84 billion spent. The most expensive product launch in corporate history. And the legacy? A company that changed its name for a product nobody wanted, built a world nobody visited, and burned more cash than most countries produce. The metaverse was never the future. It was one man's $84 billion bet against reality. And reality won.

@iancassel Some stocks deserve negative pricing : )

With certain stocks I wish the market would let them go below zero. 😂

@jackprandelli No crude in the East. No refining in the West. Perfect inefficiency.

Europe and the US spent a decade closing refineries Asia spent a decade building them Seemed smart at the time. Now Hormuz is closed & Ras Laffan is burning. The crude can't move east The refining capacity doesn't exist in the west. Nobody planned for this. 👇 West: no refining capacity ❌ East: refining capacity, no crude ❌ The war didn't create this problem. It just exposed how broken the system already was. This is what energy policy built on assumptions looks like when reality hits. 🛢️💥 link for the full article here: themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-happens…

Oil crisis speed ranking: 1. 1973 embargo: +300% in 92 days ($3 to $12) 2. 1979 Iran revolution: +179% in 180 days ($14 to $39) 3. 1990 Gulf War: +147% in 210 days ($17 to $42) 4. Hormuz 2026: +79% in 12 days ($68 to $122) Recession odds now 42%. #RecessionWatch #OilCrisis

@staunovo Once insurance becomes policy, risk turns into strategy.

US explored tying naval escorts in Strait of Hormuz to government insurance Vessels seeking protection may be required to take out cover from programme run by Development Finance Corporation #oott ft.com/content/4f3d0c…

Sentiment concentration measures crowd position, not direction. Extreme optimism signals belief saturation. Extreme pessimism reveals capitulation proximity. Neutral readings indicate uncertainty, not balance. Psychology indicator first. Timing signal distant second. Positioning matters more than conviction when everyone holds identical view. Crowded trades unwind violently regardless of correctness. #Markets #Sentiment

Communication patterns predict operational quality. Guidance precision versus ambiguity. Macro blame frequency. Credit attribution consistency. Competitive response tone. Question deflection technique. Language reveals management assessment before financials confirm. Same metrics, different leadership creates divergent outcomes. Qualitative analysis precedes quantitative validation. #Finance #Management

Cash position provides asymmetric optionality. Cost: underperformance during risk asset expansion. Benefit: deployment capacity during dislocation when counterparties face forced sales. Option value materializes when regret peaks. Dry powder matters most when others liquidate. Adequate cash means action availability when constraints bind participants. #Investing #Liquidity

@GrindeOptions The real killer is insurance: premiums have surged 12x, canceling coverage and halting tankers faster than any navy could protect them

How much will it cost to escort ships through the strait of Hormuz using military vessels and what’s the cost of not escorting? You have to spend money on fuel, munitions, food, wages, possible loss of infrastructure and this can last for weeks. Just a curious thought.

@anasalhajji Manipulation fools traders for a news cycle.

A message to politicians manipulating oil prices: ♦️It always backfires. Traders may be fooled once or twice, but that’s it. ♦️Drillers will not drill under such manipulation. They want a clear market signal. This will guarantee higher prices for longer period!