Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
I don’t know what has been presented in the White House, but this is the adversary status I would present, with one important
Takeaway - At this stage, the most important requirement for U.S. policy is strategic realism about what the use of force can still achieve against Iran.
1. Iran’s leadership is not interested in prolonging the war, but it believes it holds an advantage in a “pain tolerance” competition vis-à-vis the United States and the international community.
2. Threats of force are unlikely to produce meaningful concessions in negotiations. Iran is expected to hold firmly to the red lines it has maintained from the outset.
3. Maritime pressure will not compel Iranian capitulation. Absent an agreement, it is more likely to lead to direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Interdictions of Iranian shipping may accelerate escalation, but not surrender.
4. The current Iranian leadership will not give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, support for its regional network of proxies, or its strategic influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
5. Limited strikes will not alter this trajectory. Tehran is not easily swayed by signaling. A broader campaign against Iran’s civilian infrastructure could severely damage its economy, but would almost certainly trigger wide-scale retaliation, particularly against energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
6. Without regime change, which would require a dramatic U.S. investment in time, resources, and political will, these core dynamics are unlikely to shift.
7. Decision-making in Iran is becoming more fragmented and hardline, increasingly shaped by the IRGC. This makes coherent compromise more difficult than in the past.
8. What Iran did not concede before or during the conflict, it is even less likely to concede now, regardless of military pressure or blockade measures.
9. In the absence of a deal, escalation is not a risk, it is the default trajectory. Iran is already preparing for it, including efforts to rebuild and reinforce its missile capabilities.
10. To date, even successful operational achievements have not meaningfully changed Iran’s strategic calculus. Paradoxically, the campaign has weakened Iran economically, but strengthened the regime internally, especially among the regime supporters.
+1
The administration seems to have two main options: a framework agreement broadly resembling the previous nuclear deal, Or a wider escalation would impose massive economic costs on Iran, but rather than restrain it, it could drive a significant expansion of its escalatory actions.
#IranWar
