Bitcoin Grandad

@AvidCommentator #BITCOIN is a monetary technology which is largely being adopted by young adults & the tech savvy. It’s rapidly outperforming other savings and investment options. Whatever happens, things are shifting quickly, rapidly improving their financial position.

@indexnforgetit The floor has an average cagr of 32% over the next 10 years. The bottom is where to accumulate, and where generational opportunity lies. It’s also where to avoid accumulating and then being hit by downside volatility. It always been the same. Nfa.

@Cole_Walmsley They don't understand the problem, so they chose the wrong solution.

What’s the common denominator with all of these issues? High rent — Money Can’t buy homes — Money Groceries too damn high — Money Student debt — Money Credit card debt — Money Health insurance — Money Saving to invest — Money Dating and marriage — Money (heavy burden because of monetary costs) Trust in institutions — shattered because of broken money Belief in the future — not possible when your money is GUARANTEED to lose value in the future BY DESIGN No meaning — heavy time and energy pressure because your time and energy decline when your money, which is a representation of your time and energy, declines in value Maybe the money is the problem?? Spoiler alert: it is. But what is "the money?" The money is fiat. Money that only a certain group of people gets to control. It's a completely broken monetary system where a select group of elites gets to literally print as much money as they want out of thin air. A socialist mayor isn’t going to fix it. Broken money breaks the world. All of these issues, including one of the biggest cities in the world electing a socialist, stem from the money being broken. The world will not be fixed until the money is fixed. They want you to blame everything else but the money. They want you to look at everything else but the money. Start looking at the money. The solution is here. All that remains is understanding.

Food for thought. MicroStrategy did not sell Bitcoin because it lost faith in the asset; it sold to demonstrate that it can turn its hoard into hard cash to meet dividend obligations when required. IMHO for rating agencies and credit analysts, realised, liquid resources carry more weight than unrealised gains in a volatile asset when they assess coverage and resilience. In that sense, the sale functions less as a change of heart and more as a signal that the company is willing to monetise part of its Bitcoin reserve when its capital structure demands it. $MSTR

BTC: $70,982 · Q11 · Accumulation · below the 110-day MA. Bitcoin has been here 295 times before — same quantile, same side of the MA. Where it went next: → 90 days: Q15 · $81k · +72% annualized → 1 year: Q45 · $138k · +95% annualized NFA, just math.

@RaulioEnglasias @indexnforgetit 👍

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit I'm not against your strategy, Grandad. Perhaps it will play out. My comment was directed elsewhere.

Hate to burst your bitcoin bubble...

Whilst the rest of the country struggles with cost of living crisis and are constantly told to tighten their belts the most incompetent Prime Minister to ever lead Australia receives a whopping $57,000 pay increase. Communism at its finest.

Yes, it seems the floor is hard (or has been at least) and the ceiling is more variable. Prior to 2025, all cycle tops reached a minimum of 99 Quantile, and the 2013 & 2017 went higher. It was the Oct 2025 that fell under at around Q75. But it is possible it was due to a number of extenuating circumstances. The reason the floor is useful in my opinion is that once a low is reached (towards the floor), the price has never gone lower. Secondly, in the newer models the floor slope (and therefore CAGR), is higher than the median and top Quantile, ie the floor is converging towards them. This is one of the best and most useful newer Quantile based Power Law models Imo. @BitcoinPowerLaw #x=log&y=log&h=10&ma=off" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">mnav.marty-5b9.workers.dev/btc/power-law/…

@Stumitchell60 @Drewhawk711 @indexnforgetit Power law is good at the floor but the tops have missed

Respectfully, a Power law is math that was first discovered in the late 1800’s. Its applicability to Bitcoin was discovered & proven in 2013/2014. Having used it for years now, after buying my first Bitcoin in early 2017, I’ve learned the benefits. But everyone can do what they like. I’m only here to help those that are interested in learning. These numbers are simply what the math says.

@indexnforgetit @Stumitchell60 You are doing exactly that 😆

Not really. The returns are slowly diminishing in percentage terms, but compounding means the nominal $ value increases each year. For instance, the 1 Jan Support line prices are $50,708, $70805 and $97099, for 2026, 2027 & 2028 respectively. But the growth between 2026 & 2027 is $20,097, and then the growth between 2027 & 2028 is $26,294. By 2032 the annual growth of this support trend reads over $100k snd continues to climb. The future is not guaranteed, although Power Law based math has worked very well so far. Power Law discovery dates back to the late 1800’s. Nfa.

@indexnforgetit @Stumitchell60 you're literally saying the future is only diminishing returns

It’s not my work. I’ve just found it very useful. The Bitcoin Power law was first discovered by @Giovann35084111 back in 2013/2014. @hcburger1 extended the work in a paper he wrote in Sept 2019 hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw/… which is where I first learned about. Later @BitboBTC developed an interactive version which is the source of this base chart.

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit Can you state your case as to why the floor is the floor? And without using any historical price trends/data

@IsDatEchtZo5 @patricksavalle Bitcoin power law. Succes

@SimonKay100 The U.S. can seize custodial $BTC. It cannot seize properly self-custodied $BTC without access to the private keys.

@Drewhawk711 @indexnforgetit No gurantees, but so far so good. The trend is the same scale invariant math. If you haven't looked into what a Power Law is, you'll be glad if you do. What is guranteed is that a low interest bank savings account goes backwards in real terms.

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit Because past performance guarantees future results! Got it! 👌🏻💵

@indexnforgetit On average, the future is better than this. The median is a Power Law (put simply, the average price over time), that sits considerably above the Support floor trend. The Support has historically been the lowest risk trend. Nfa

@Stumitchell60 Ah I’m glad to see you can predict the future

@dimezzzzzz @indexnforgetit It's worked well for a long time. If you haven't already, its worth looking into Power Laws and how robust the downside deviations have been.

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit Genuinely interested, if I hear something good then I’ll buy, otherwise I am assuming that it’s a glass floor.

@indexnforgetit Just what the math has showed for 17 years. No predictions, just math.

@Peak_Ascent @Washigorira @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @hcburger1 That Support line reads $60k in early July and $70k by year end. It’s close to Support earlier this cycle.

@Stumitchell60 @Washigorira @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @hcburger1 Cycle theory and money flows tell me we are likely to go lower than here. I think we form a bullish divergence between now and November on a high timeframe The $60k wick could still be the low though x.com/Peak_Ascent/st…

#Bitcoin Floor Is at $42K and Rising. Historically, every #BTC cycle bottom has formed above the lower boundary of the Power Law V2.0. That boundary is currently near $42K and rising every month. I believe a move below $42K remains highly unlikely.

@LongTermLuke Less discomfort if you buy low. It’s not hard either.

Bitcoin teaches a lesson most people never learn: Short-term discomfort is often the price of long-term freedom.