Warren Porter

@gummibear737 Iran can replace about 5% of their maritime oil exports with railroad exports.

Unless there's some secret pipeline that nobody knows about, there are no alternate trade routes that can handle the necessary volumes or be cost effective Nice try, but this is propaganda for the dummies

A member of Congress admits that it was never about illegal crossers seeking asylum. It was about banning legal immigrants too

@JDFilkins @Polymarket This just came across my feed. If true, it would be the first evidence that the blockade is more than just words. x.com/HFI_Research/s…

@JDFilkins @Polymarket Sanctioned vessels transited the strait yesterday after the deadline and they were neither boarded nor seized.

JUST IN: Iran reportedly may pause shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to respect the blockade & avoid jeopardizing U.S. talks.

@JDFilkins @Polymarket The USN has not yet interdicted any sancioned vessels. It is unclear whether the US will back up its words with action. finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy…

@Polymarket Pardon me, but does not the order "Blockade" imply that shipping is already paused? Isn't this like Iran promising to not cross that bridge anymore the day after you've blown he thin into the ravine?

@mattbigos @JavierBlas Iran can still sell about 5% of its current oil exports overland via railroad. It's still a big shock, but it's better than going to zero.

@JavierBlas Outside of Oil sales, does Iranian gov have any other meaningful sources of revenue?

Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change its negotiation approach? Unclear.

@ThePanic16 @bonchieredstate I asked for your preferred semantics, not your preferred policies.

@Warp_Reality @bonchieredstate I have no interest in your fines and penalties bullshit “Worn-out Warren. Deport them all. 10 deportation centers nationwide 24 C-130’e at each center, one filled with illegal aliens, 10 flights every hour, on the hour, non-stop for 6 years.

It’s literally no deportations, work permits, and a pathway to citizenship. What exactly do you think the word amnesty means?

@OSUDOC63 @tparsi Every barrel sold to a foreign buyer makes Americans bid up the price of the remaining barrels available for domestic consumption. This creates stagflationary pressure on our economy.

@tparsi Oil tankers are sailing to the United States as we speak. We will be the world's source of oil until Iran capitulates. Saudi Arabia has rerouted 7 million barrels of oil per day through its pipeline.

Regarding Trump's threat/decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, color me a skeptic. 1. Taking more oil off the market, particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf, will drive oil prices further up, and the paper price of oil will get closer to the actual price, which should be around $150 per barrel. A dramatic increase in inflation in the US will ensue. Avoiding this is precisely why Trump was stuck in a position where he had no escalatory options out of this conflict before the ceasefire. He still doesn't. 2. Stopping tankers carrying Iranian oil wouldn't just be an escalation vis-à-vis Iran, but also against the countries that are buying Iranian oil, which includes China, India, and other Asian countries. I doubt Trump is ready for that escalation, particularly given the upcoming summit in Beijing. 3. This is also true for punishing countries that have negotiated a toll with Iran for the Straits. That includes Pakistan, which hosted the negotiations. 4. The naval blockade escalation will make the closing of the Red Sea more likely by the Houthis. That would take another 12% of global oil flow off the market. We would now be looking at oil around $200 per barrel. There are nine or so days left of the ceasefire. Since neither side has explicitly stated that talks won't resume, or that the ceasefire is dead and over with, all these moves should be treated as tactics and threats within the negotiations. It wouldn't be surprising if these threats are walked back soon (perhaps before markets open on Monday) and a new round is announced. HOWEVER, there is a time for brinkmanship, and there is a time for serious negotiations. If the US truly was insisting on zero enrichment in Islamabad, which was not Trump's red line at first but rather Israel's, then the next talks will be rendered a failure - just as the talks in May 2025 were killed by Trump shifting to the Israeli red line. Still, I don't think that necessarily will lead to a return to war. A more likely scenario is a new non-negotiated status quo in which Tehran retains control over the Straits but doesn't get any sanctions relief, while the US pulls out of the war, and the question becomes whether Israel will continue the war on its own.

@gummibear737 If Iran attacks a US navy vessel enforcing the blockade, it doesn't give the US any more cause to bomb Iranian power plants, with prejudice or otherwise.

What Trump is basically doing is holding the ceasefire hostage and daring Iran to break it If Iran does nothing then along w/blockade of Iranian ships they'll start escort convoys and dare Iran to do something If Iran attacks, then Trump has cause to escalate with prejudice

@Homerpezz @ScottPresler Threatening jail for purgery is enough deterrence for people. The risk/reward calculation is obvious enough. One vote that probably won't change an election's outcome isn't worth the risk of incarceration.

@ScottPresler I keep trying to remind people: Some of our biggest states have NO CITIZENSHIP VERIFICATION AT ALL. There's just a box saying, "I know that perjury is a crime." This is not hurdle for illegals. There are easily tens of millions of them registered and voting normally.

Here’s how democrats have shifted the conversation: “Illegal aliens can’t register to vote.” “Illegal aliens aren’t registering to vote — it was a Driver’s License glitch.” “Illegal aliens can’t vote.” “The illegal aliens that voted were caught; so, the system is working.” “There isn’t widespread illegal alien voting.”

Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and irresponsible to clam it’s not a serious ongoing crisis. Bad estimates (the reality below) 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute (That’s total East -West pipeline capacity, already had 2-2.5 on the line so remaining “swing” from Gulf to Red Sea is 4.5-5.0 MMbpd) 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus (We did have a pre-war surplus, but it was closer to 2 MMbpd, and even that remains disputed—I was on the bearish side of the debate) 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute (Again, this is the pipe capacity—swing is more like 0.5-0.7) 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass (This is silly, Jask never demonstrated that capacity but more fundamentally Iran Hormuz flows actually remain higher than that at 1.5+ MMbpd) 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) In reality, we have ~13 MMbpd of upstream Gulf production offline, with no sustainable offset—SPRs, etc. are only a temporary help. Today’s Trump blockade would raise that to more than 15 MMbpd.

@Libertybibbledy @bonchieredstate Amnesty traditional means all penalties are waived, which would exclude trading a penalty of removal for a restitution of 1000/yr for 7 years.

@Warp_Reality @bonchieredstate Amnesty is staying. Everything else is noise

@ThePanic16 @bonchieredstate Why do you think it is important to use the same word to describe changing the penalty from removal to a fine as the word we use for removing all penalties altogether?

@Warp_Reality @bonchieredstate Sure looks like amnesty to me

Three questions: 1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop? 2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb? 3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers loading at Jask (outside the SoH)?

@WraffUmpteenth @BarefootStudent @WallStreetMav Why do you claim that?

@Warp_Reality @BarefootStudent @WallStreetMav Yep, you're screwed.

"The Dignity Act" is way worse than anyone was aware. Sec. 2303(d) says that anyone who claims they arrived before 2021 cannot be removed. Anyone can make the claim, automatic block by ICE to deport them for years. All deportations come to a complete stop nationwide.

@808_38hz @akarlin Unlike Trump and Netanyahu, Xi doesn't have to face an election this year with constituents angry about the price of gasoline. China has a lot more flexibility to outlast USA + Israel.

@Warp_Reality @akarlin It will be open to them when they need it, which they will, including KSA oil.

The problem is that Iran's demands are absurdly maximalist: * Permanent Hormuz tolls * Reparations * Unblock frozen assets * No restrictions on uranium enrichment * Ceasefire includes Lebanon It's what you would only reasonably demand after a crushing military victory!

@Nexxo00 @TrixToilet @ConserArmenians @RichardHanania Exactly, this ground invasion would be another strategic defeat for the USA.

@Warp_Reality @TrixToilet @ConserArmenians @RichardHanania But for how long? Iran would make Afghanistan look like a summer picnic.

I think Hormuz has broken Trump. We always say he's inconsistent and changes his mind. But this is different. I don't think he's ever been this all over the place on an issue in such a short period of time. "OPEN HORMUZ OR YOUR CIVILIZATION DIES." "We don't need Hormuz, it's Europe's problem." "Oh actually, we're probably going to have a deal with the Iranians to run it together." "It's great Hormuz is not open, we get to sell more oil!" "Actually, Hormuz is open! The media is lying again." When he's been inconsistent before, usually he cycles through different positions, at least showing some consistency for a short period of time. Here he's constantly saying contradictory things in the same breath, over and over again. I think he realizes he's stuck. He can let Iran have Hormuz and say it doesn't matter or lie about what happened. MAGA idiots may believe him, but he'll be a laughing stock to everyone else. Or he can pivot back to "DESTROY THEIR CIVILIZATION," send oil to $150, and hope it works. Either 1) more war, which wrecks the economy going into the midterms, or 2) total loss, and maybe the economy recovers if Iran allows enough traffic through, but this goes along with what is probably the worst strategic defeat in American history. Just terrible options all around.

@beft_ @bonchieredstate India's geography made it easy for Britain to use a "divide & conquer" strategy to colonize India. Because Britain's metropole was unaffected by Indian geography, their rule was not susceptible to a "divide & conquer" strategy.

@Warp_Reality @bonchieredstate Once the European powers took it, how did the geography not work against the Europeans?

@808_38hz @akarlin China is sending MANPADs and other weapons to Iran. They don't want Iran to surrender the Strait anytime soon.

@akarlin The straights will reopen to everyone but direct US concerns because China will require it. They might ask nicely but Iran is toast without them.

@beft_ @bonchieredstate India's geography made it easy for European powers to colonize and steal its resources for centuries.

@Warp_Reality @bonchieredstate Not when you've got 5000 years to figure out those resources