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YOLFT
7.1K posts
YOLFT
@YolftPI
Predicting Future events using AI & Math. Utility token is coming in May 26. Follow us.
انضم Mart 2025
99 يتبع171 المتابعون
@altryne @dwarkesh_sp Pods are so PR driven. A slightest inconvenient moment to the guests becomes a headline
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hey @dwarkesh_sp was this pic taken before or after the pod?
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp
Tomorrow
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Dwarkesh will be stuffed into a black van in the mission district and wake up in Beijing to this view
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President Trump says Iran has agreed not to have a nuke.
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The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets
Market makers don't predict the future. They just stand on the other side of your optimism and collect.
I found the data to prove it:
> YES contracts underperform NO contracts by up to 64 percentage points at the same price.
> People love buying cheap YES contracts. Makers just take the other side and profit.
> Makers earn +1.12% per trade. Takers lose -1.12%.
> Finance markets are almost fair. Sports and Entertainment? Takers get destroyed.
> Before 2024 regular users were actually winning. Then professionals arrived and flipped everything.
kober@kober1337
Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? I read a research article about who actually makes money on Polymarket. Dataset: 1.4M users, 70M trades, $20B volume. Here are the main points: > Top 1% of users capture 84% of all gains > 70.8% of users lose money > Market makers beat takers at 80 out of 99 price levels > Buying contracts below 10¢ is the #1 way to lose money (they are systematically overpriced) > Overtrading makes losses even worse
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@MorePerfectUS founders of both the platforms won't lose. that is for sure
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NEW: Prediction markets are scamming the working class.
Polymarket and Kalshi claim they are "democratizing finance," but their business model enables a handful of elites to fleece their customers.
On Polymarket just 0.04% of traders capture 70% of the profits.
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We said you could trade on everything. Now trade on your lived experience.
I can see the effects of geopolitical moves on oil, lithium, cattle, coffee and more - every day. What about you?
Kalshi@Kalshi
Trade on more commodities. 24/7. Now on Kalshi.
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Anyone thinking war is over without strategic gains is grossly mistaken.
YOLFT@YolftPI
We are predicting a single digit percentage chance of #Iran-US peace deal this month. Human prediction markets have over 40% now. Testing this one and will post the results on April 22nd and 30th. #Predictiveintelligence
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Let me summarize this for you:
21 minutes on how PM's are fleecing Americans, while never even touching on the markets which represent 90% of the volume. Just the esoteric mention crap.
@MorePerfectUS stock plummeting among people who half a brain. Keep shoveling your slop MPU.
More Perfect Union@MorePerfectUS
NEW: Prediction markets are scamming the working class. Polymarket and Kalshi claim they are "democratizing finance," but their business model enables a handful of elites to fleece their customers. On Polymarket just 0.04% of traders capture 70% of the profits.
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Absolutely disgusting and borderline defamatory that they would show such an outdated profit figure
Next time please reach out for updated P/L
More Perfect Union@MorePerfectUS
NEW: Prediction markets are scamming the working class. Polymarket and Kalshi claim they are "democratizing finance," but their business model enables a handful of elites to fleece their customers. On Polymarket just 0.04% of traders capture 70% of the profits.
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@KobeissiLetter Fact is chip giants have nothing to show for in use cases with the investment they are making
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AI agents are exploding in popularity.
As the AI Revolution advances, we are seeing massive growth in Agentic AI.
Between 2025 and 2030, revenue in this market is set to grow at a CAGR of 43.3%, rising to ~$48.3 billion per year.
As a result, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has described current market conditions as the "inflation point" in AI.
Today, HockeyStack has announced a $50M capital raise for AI Agents that effectively run businesses as investor capital increasingly rotates into the space.
Autonomy is the future of AI.
Emir Atli@emiratli_
We raised $50M to build the First AI Revenue Agent. It runs New Business, Expansion, and Prospecting to close you more business while you sleep.
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NIKE: please do SOMETHING!
zerohedge@zerohedge
BIRD now up 630% on pivot from broke shoemaker to AI compute company
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OpenAI pulls back from Stargate Norway data center deal as Microsoft takes over cnbc.com/2026/04/15/ope…
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TRUMP IS ABOUT TO GET RUGGED BY KEVING WARSH TOO 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP ON FED: THINK RATES WILL GO LOWER WHEN WARSH GETS IN
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