Captain Jack Andrews

Attention bettors, regulators, operators, shot takers, angle shooters, APs, degens - this video is for you! 🫵 When SHOULD your bet be voided? And why are states stealing your money?

@TheBettorLife @CirclesOffHQ @robpizzola @roundrobin42 Unfortunately for him, thumbnails are not why people watch my videos. 😉

@capjack2000 @CirclesOffHQ @robpizzola @roundrobin42 What

Whose video will @robpizzola and @roundrobin42 be reacting to tomorrow at 1 pm ET? 🤔 Get ready for this one 👀

🚨 New episode alert! @jesselearmonth is joined by @CalSpears , founder of @gambly, returning to the Betting Startups Podcast to share an update on the company’s progress since launch, insights from the @nextdotio Summit in New York, and a major milestone for the business. Full episode here 👇 Youtube: youtu.be/AAPKDKEhTAc Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1OcWXD…

I don't want to sound like a know-it-all, but this has always been the playbook. You'll find that Jason Robins was basically saying it a couple years ago. I posted 6 years ago that DK would be out of sports betting in 5 yrs. I was off, but IMO directionally correct. States made regulated sports betting untenable. The future is PM's and states just punish their citizens with iCasino.

the nj numbers are even cleaner than that - in 2025 icasino revenue passed land-based casino revenue for the first time ever. $2.91B vs $2.89B maryland is literally debating icasino right now to fill a $1.5B budget deficit. the fiscal pressure you're describing is already the pitch if that's the play, the timeline just got shorter

You might think that the debate is straightforward, but this is the least straightforward analogy I have ever seen. Also, I've been to casinos with lots of windows and natural light

It plays into their hands. Federal money to states has dried up in the current administration. Sportsbooks can claim they are being crushed by taxation and competition. They'll go to the states and say they'll pay 51% taxes on iCasino and point to NJ where iCasino revenue exceeds B&M by 20% and exceeds sports betting by 150%. It's a quick & easy couple billion to the states and a couple billion to the operators. It'll also take the heat off this "sports betting is bad" nonsense. As the calamity caused by iCasino is SO much worse. It's been the Trojan Horse they've been planning since 2018. DK never wanted to be a sports betting company.

@capjack2000 @SteveRuddock @John_Mehaffey agree on icasino - in NJ, the most mature icasino market, offshore dropped 41% over two years while licensed operators grew 28%. regulated competition actually works the problem is that moat only exists in 7 states, while the other 43 are waiting for the same congress fix as PM

Oh I'm aware of what they launched. It's not a very competitive product, it's a top of funnel product aimed at grabbing a customer database before they launch in those states. It's uninspired and the market sees that. PM's are not gambling. At least not by the federal definition of gambling. When you place a bet with your local bookie, an offshore website, or any other entity, you aren't doing anything illegal. Because PLACING a wager is not illegal. ACCEPTING it is. On a PM, the entity is not accepting the risk. PM's also have plenty of features that sportsbooks do not. Such as clearinghouses, hedging, blind transactions, etc. They also have rule 40.11(a) which creates the federal loophole of event contracts that these operate in. State courts may find in favor of states that sue these PM's, but not all federal courts will. That split will fast track everything to SCOTUS, which will likely rule that they interpret laws, not write them and they'll send it to Congress to fix. TL;DR = this will exist for at least 2-3 more years. Minimum. All the while growing larger and larger. Maybe too big to fail. DK's best move would be to get out of sports betting entirely and focus on iCasino which is higher margin and more bulletproof.

they actually did, launched its own prediction market in december then disclosed in their 10-K that it could get their state licenses revoked. nevada courts already ruled that state gambling law applies to sports event contracts it's capitalism, but DK is playin' it with a $6B hostage

ok, joking aside, I'll engage. Why doesn't DKNG just forfeit their state licenses and go 100% prediction market? All sports bettors agree that DK is a better product than Kalshi. I would gladly bet at DK if they would let me. I was limited to $1 bets in September 2018. PM's serve an underserved segment of the market. That's on DK and their efforts to expand, not PM's. It's capitalism at work.

@capjack2000 @SteveRuddock @John_Mehaffey fair catch - took the quote at face value; that's on me the 256% growth and the gaming tax gap are from real data observation and public record though - Mark Twain didn't make those up

@allsetmax @SteveRuddock @John_Mehaffey I mean...did you really think Mark Twain wrote about the American gambling industry in the late 1800's?

@SteveRuddock @capjack2000 @John_Mehaffey fair - but 256% YoY growth and $0 in gaming taxes aren't tired tropes; those are just what happened "monopoly vs competition" is the trope. draftkings is down 40% since september while kalshi's seekin' a $20B valuation

@allsetmax @SteveRuddock @John_Mehaffey Mark Twain never said that. I was proving the point that people just make up whatever they are biased to believe. ...and you doubled down on it. It's all good, nobody's opinions have ever changed anyone else's on this platform.

Twain was right and the "competition" framing is exhibit A calling prediction markets vs OSB competition implies they play by the same rules; they don't - DraftKings pays ~33% gaming tax on every dollar of GGR, kalshi pays whatever the IRS figures out to call it someday $DKNG is down 40% since september. kalshi was just valued at $11B, now seekin' $20B. same customers, different rules

@SteveRuddock @John_Mehaffey @allsetmax If there is a debate in the gaming industry, you can bet both sides have tired tropes not based in reality. As Mark Twain said, no American industry speaks more half-truths and no-truths than gambling.

@John_Mehaffey @allsetmax The clocks, windows, and recycled air nonsense need to go away

Big news: Unabated Sports has officially merged with @CalSpears and @Balesbets AI-powered betting platform @gambly. A quick thread on what this means for Unabated members 🧵

@UnabatedSports 🤝 @gambly ingame.com/gambly-unabate…

@12Xpert I did a similar experiment - I was just a bit more honest about the results and the process. youtu.be/6BOj2glPl6o?si…

Great experiment. Of course all these AIs are just LLMs, not true AGI. So they can only be as good as their inputs (as for all models). Provided those aren't biased then I can see this as an effective wisdom of crowd model. But how long does it offer +EV once everyone's doing it?

Play-ins start tonight, but before you ship your brackets, check in with @JasonLisk of @PoolGenius at 2 p.m. ET during a live AMA in our Discord. We've got everything: 8s v. 9s. 12s v. 5s. We've even got 10s v. 7s. 💬 bit.ly/474f4VK

Because most of those pieces are rank hit jobs, and ignore the fact that a massive betting market had existed for decades unmonitored, and that legalization gave you resources for intervention and regulators could monitor for improprieties

@cheappropbets @NotTheeWillHill It's been this way for years. Almost every state gaming regulator has taken a job with an operator after their term is done. Or they open up a consulting firm and hire operators as clients. @Schuetzinc has been on top of it for a while.

@capjack2000 @NotTheeWillHill So…. This will become the new CDC as a spring board for a future career with the companies they were supposed to regulate???? Almost comical… almost

In 2020, bettors in Indiana and NJ had the same bets falsely voided by Fanduel. NJ overruled the voids, IN said the sportsbooks can do what they please. Not a bad thing to have on your resume I suppose.

@GoodJuJuBets Next wave? Slots AP peaked about 4-5 yrs ago. I stopped doing it about 6 yrs ago. Most AP's have moved onto other plays. Also worth noting, manufacturers were complicit. It kept losing players on machines longer chasing progressions.

Hot take 🔥 The next wave of professional gamblers won’t be poker players or card counters. They’ll be slot players with spreadsheets. Casinos say “slot advantage play” is rising as people wait for machines to hit +EV states before playing. The house always wins… until it doesn’t. 🎰 Article Below ⬇

If you have March Madness FOMO, here's your quick hack to get caught up on what you need to know. From brackets to survivor pools to how the tournament is going to go. @JasonLisk knows. Ask him anything, tomorrow at 2pm ET⤵️

#Minnesota senators have introduced SF 4511—a bipartisan bill that would criminalize operating #predictionmarkets, potentially making operators and certain service providers felons. 🚨 Visit GamingToday.com for the full story: gamingtoday.com/news/minnesota…