Blaze Pascal

92 posts

Blaze Pascal banner
Blaze Pascal

Blaze Pascal

@blaze__pascal

the rainmaking mandala

انضم Mart 2020
625 يتبع737 المتابعون
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@jukan05 Lotte's discloses 0.8um Rz for HVLP4 vs Kinzoku 0.5um HVLP5 should be <0.5um. I think Lotte's HVLP4 is more like HVLP3
English
1
0
2
353
Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
@blaze__pascal Could you share the source for the claim that Lotte’s HVLP4 performs twice as poorly as Mitsui’s?
English
1
0
15
3.6K
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
A few things incorrect / missing in this article: Kinzoku’s HVLP capacity is >5x Lotte’s today and Kinzoku is not supply constrained Kinzoku will ~7x HVLP4+ production over the next two years (80% share today) Lotte’s “HVLP4” copper foil has twice the surface roughness (e.g., less performant) There is a shortage of Mifune’s copper foil machines from Japan Copper foil will be in such short supply that even with flawless execution, Lotte 10x’ing capacity would not change much
Jukan@jukan05

[Exclusive] Lotte Energy Materials to Supply AI Circuit Foil to NVIDIA Starting This Month Lotte Energy Materials will begin supplying AI circuit foil used in NVIDIA's next generation graphics processing units (GPUs) in earnest starting this month. The company had originally planned to begin supply in the second half of this year, but moved up the timeline at NVIDIA's request. In preparation for an aggressive capacity buildout, Lotte Energy Materials is understood to have recently placed a bulk order with a partner for more than ten times its previous volume of copper. According to industry sources on the 1st, Lotte Energy Materials will begin full scale shipments of AI circuit foil from its Iksan plant in North Jeolla Province this month. Circuit foil is an ultra thin metal sheet one twentieth the thickness of A4 paper. It is a foundational material used when AI accelerators process large volumes of data, and its supply price is more than three to four times higher than that of ordinary copper foil for electric vehicle batteries. Having designated AI circuit foil as its next growth driver, Lotte Energy Materials has converted the Iksan plant, which previously produced copper foil for EV batteries, into an AI circuit foil production line. Once Lotte Energy Materials produces the circuit foil, Doosan Electro Materials BG manufactures the copper clad laminate (CCL) based on it, and Isu Petasys produces the printed circuit board (PCB), which is ultimately supplied to NVIDIA. Both companies will ramp up supply to NVIDIA this month. Lotte Energy Materials is reducing the share of its core EV copper foil business and shifting its center of gravity toward AI circuit foil. It is currently producing circuit foil using part of the Iksan plant's production line, but next year it will transform the entire Iksan plant into a dedicated AI circuit foil production base. The company plans to increase capacity from 3,700 tons this year to 16,000 tons next year, and to add further production lines after 2028. The high barriers to entry in the AI circuit foil market are another positive factor. Globally, the only players capable of mass producing AI circuit foil are Japan's Mitsui Mining & Smelting, and Korea's Lotte Energy Materials and Solus Advanced Materials. The frontrunner, Mitsui, has been unable to keep up with explosive demand due to a recently stalled expansion schedule, while Solus Advanced Materials has sold off the relevant subsidiary. An industry official said, "AI circuit foil requires highly advanced rolling technology, so it is difficult to convert a line in a short period of time," adding that "this is effectively an opportunity for Lotte to seize leadership of the market." The market views this as the Lotte Group, which had been sidelined during the AI boom, making a full fledged entry into the NVIDIA value chain. On the day, Lotte Energy Materials closed at 64,300 won, up 14.62% from the previous trading session.

English
1
0
13
7.8K
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
Thanks dawg 👾 it takes 3-4 year to bring on greenfield capacity Current spot/LTA price is below incentive price to bring on new capacity Price needs to go up A LOT or there will not be enough wafer Hynix/Sammy/etc capacity expansion tomorrow needed SUMCO greenfield yesterday SUMCO canceled greenfield two month ago
Zephyr@zephyr_z9

LMAO This will be so fucking funny Big W for my friend @blaze__pascal He called this months ago

English
0
0
17
3.6K
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
The trade for the past year has been to buy when they say no price hike or capacity. A year ago they said no T-Glass hikes and have since raised by ~30%. Stock up 400%ish since. Three quarters ago they said no T-Glass capacity growth in FY3/27 and now it’s +20-30%. Stock +150%ish since. I think they expand capacity (again) and lock in higher prices
English
0
0
17
1.9K
Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Do you see why Nittobo’s stock has been moving sideways now? They have no intention of raising prices. Unlike memory companies, which are aggressively raising prices right now, Japanese companies like this place an extreme emphasis on customer relationships and market share. This is also one of the reasons I did not buy Nittobo or Ajinomoto. They are too conservative and care too much about their customers. Japanese companies, please start abusing your pricing power a little… like the memory companies.
Jukan tweet media
Jukan@jukan05

Why No Price Hike Despite a Severe Shortage? Why doesn't Nittobo raise prices to reap windfall profits? The AI server boom has triggered an explosion in global demand for high-end glass fiber materials. Yet even as the market tightens into deepening shortage, Nittobo (Nitto Boseki, 日東紡) has opted for a counterintuitive strategy. Management made clear that the company currently has no plans for further price increases on its low-CTE (low coefficient of thermal expansion) glass fabric (T-glass), emphasizing that at this stage it will focus on expanding capacity to "defend market share." According to Japanese media reports, Nittobo is a leading major supplier that commands the critical global supply of high-end low-thermal-expansion glass fiber. The company said it had initially planned to prioritize expanding low-Dk (low dielectric) glass fiber capacity, but as demand from AI servers and edge devices such as smartphones outpaced expectations, the supply-demand gap for low-thermal-expansion T-glass widened sharply. In response, it has decided to accelerate the pace of expansion, adding glass fabric production lines at its Fukushima site in Japan while also installing new glass melting furnace equipment in Taiwan. Nittobo noted that T-glass demand is currently expanding rapidly. Not only is demand for the "thick fabric" used in semiconductor packaging substrates for AI servers continuing to climb, but the growth rate of the "thin fabric" used in edge devices such as smartphones is exceeding initial expectations by an even wider margin. The company emphasized that it has reached an internal consensus to further scale up the relevant capital investment in order to meet the strong demand from both thick-fabric and thin-fabric customers simultaneously. Defending Market Share Over Short-Term Price Hikes On the future price trajectory that the market is watching closely, Nittobo management responded that it currently has no plans to make further price adjustments to either T-glass or low-dielectric glass, and will continue selling at the prices set at the start of this fiscal year. The company reiterated that its top priority at present is expanding capacity to meet customer demand, thereby cementing its leadership position in the high-end materials market. It added that, so long as its products remain competitive and market demand holds firm, it will not hesitate to commit to capacity expansion. Nittobo had previously announced that it would raise the capital expenditure (CapEx) budget in its FY2024–2027 medium-term management plan by a substantial 50%, from the originally planned ¥80 billion to ¥120 billion—a move intended to respond to product demand and shifts in the market environment. Glass fabric is a critical component of IC substrates and printed circuit boards (PCBs), serving as the most fundamental chip-reinforcement layer material in electronic devices. As advanced chip packaging imposes extremely stringent requirements on micro-scale deformation, T-glass—with its low-thermal-expansion properties—can effectively prevent package warpage, establishing itself as a core element in ensuring the stability of high-end computing.

English
34
68
615
292.6K
Renny
Renny@rennyzucker·
@blaze__pascal @bucketshopcap Correct, they’re also a major (named) Arteris IP customer which were also quite long. Didn’t mention that because Renasas was stuck with the shares from the bankruptcy proceedings and were not sure what they want to do long term. Think their WOLF stake is a bit smaller now.
English
1
0
0
413
Bucket Shop Capital
Bucket Shop Capital@bucketshopcap·
Probably the most surprising thing to me in recent years is how much pro investors have picked up retail habits. Between the garbage pros pitched earnestly as longs at Sohn & this WOLF pump, you shouldn't even be wondering what part of the cycle we're in. But on we go.
English
12
7
259
34.2K
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@rennyzucker @bucketshopcap Perhaps I missed in the note but Renesas (PMICs + memory interfaces, as you highlight) owns ~40% of WOLF… and will own 15% of SITM!
English
1
0
1
219
Renny
Renny@rennyzucker·
@bucketshopcap What makes the wolf thesis a “pump” as you call it? Did you read the article or at least this section. I wrote it so I’m happy to walk you through it.
English
4
0
15
2K
dalibali
dalibali@dalibali2·
If I were OAI I’d ask for a price deduction after having dick ridin Tae on the show
dalibali tweet media
English
8
1
64
9.4K
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@zephyr_z9 Wonder if Renesas will monetize that 40% stake in WOLF… + the 15% in SITM…
English
0
0
1
533
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@TheLAPurchaser On the heels of the heels of Elite.. worth looking at who supplies the copper foil and glass fabric for CCL.. Mitsui Kinzoku (5706 JP) and Nittobo (3110 JP)
English
0
0
1
351
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@atelicinvest So much hate for ToTo on this platform. Don’t become a boomer-san 🪷
Blaze Pascal tweet media
English
0
0
3
222
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@sssjeffpu Excellent work. Do you also expect a MicroThing shortage driven by memory PKG?
English
2
0
1
611
Jeff Pu
Jeff Pu@sssjeffpu·
# Abstract of PCB/Copper Foil (doing PCB tour in South East Asia now) (KB’s px hike notice out today) Prefer PCB upstream of Copper Foil & CCL CCL: Positive — AI-driven HVLP4 → strong volume + pricing tailwind Copper Foil: Positive — structural supply shortage (HVLP4 equivalent demand 1676 tons/m vs supply 1298 tons/m) + capacity constraints → price hikes likely in 2Q26 /4Q26. Demand driver: NVIDIA / AWS / Google platforms r shifting to HVLP4 Supply constraint by limited expansion (equipment bottleneck, yield loss, HTE→HVLP transition)
Jeff Pu tweet mediaJeff Pu tweet media
English
6
17
117
39K
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@valuedrift $000150.KS Doosan Corp - HoldCo for Enerbility + the CCL business at discount to NAV
English
1
0
1
135
Value Drift
Value Drift@valuedrift·
Damn, $052690.KS is not cheap... $051600.KS is. Best way to play Korea nuclear export prowess?
English
1
0
0
355
Zephyr
Zephyr@zephyr_z9·
Interesting Sumitomo Electric has 43% market share in InP substrates
Zephyr tweet media
English
12
32
561
64.1K
Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
My current watchlist: Advantest — As GPU architectures become increasingly complex, the number of required testing steps could rise exponentially. Could there still be more upside here? Montage — If CPU adoption increases, usage of memory interfaces should also surge. I prefer Montage over Rambus in particular because Montage also has exposure to CXL. Delton Technology — A specialized CPU substrate manufacturer with a meaningful presence in the CPU substrate market. Qualcomm — If Qualcomm really launches its data-center Nuvia CPU in June, it could potentially reverse the current overly short-biased sentiment.
English
43
103
1.2K
212.1K
Zephyr
Zephyr@zephyr_z9·
Nah, not just T-glass shortage Producing ABF substrates for AI GPUs is a very complex and time-consuming process that gets harder as the number of layers in the substrate increases Ibiden supplies the majority (90%) of high end ABF substrates for AI GPUs The big bottleneck is adding capacity for SAP patterning
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal

@zephyr_z9 Isn’t the ABF shortage due to T-Glass vs. lack of ABF capacity?

English
4
11
169
36.3K
Blaze Pascal
Blaze Pascal@blaze__pascal·
@zephyr_z9 Isn’t the ABF shortage due to T-Glass vs. lack of ABF capacity?
English
0
1
1
44.2K
ABCトレーダー
ABCトレーダー@ABC87791035·
高市訪米銘柄にシフトしてる
日本語
12
12
362
92.3K