breakingmetrics

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@breakingmetrics

Civil Engineer | Bridge Builder | Investor. 16+ years building NYC/NJ infrastructure. I build bridges by day and break down the markets behind them.

New York, NY انضم Nisan 2026
84 يتبع5 المتابعون
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breakingmetrics
breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
Markets don't print all time highs when the Navy is losing a war. The S&P drew down 9% during the full Iranian closure, barely scratching correction territory, and closed Friday above 7,000 after the Navy blockaded Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. Iran re-routed ships around Larak this morning trying to reclaim leverage. The market already stress-tested this thesis and priced the answer. Here's what smart money saw while everyone else argued over Iranian AI slop.
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@bonchieredstate Their leadership is so fragmented that they have no fucking idea what they're doing.
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@MarioNawfal What I got from this story is that the US is completely aware of how many missile launchers remain and exactly where they are. Got it.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran kept more of its military than anyone wants to admit... U.S. intelligence estimates Iran retains 60% of its missile launchers and could reclaim up to 70% of its prewar arsenal. At the time of the ceasefire, Iran had access to half its launchers. In the days immediately after the guns went quiet, around 100 more systems were reportedly dug out from caves and bunkers across the country. The regime used the ceasefire to rearm. While Washington celebrated "decisive military victory" and Hegseth claimed Iran's missile program was "functionally destroyed," Iran was already pulling launchers out of underground complexes and back into operational readiness. This is why Trump is keeping the blockade in place despite the ceasefire. The military pressure has to continue because the moment it stops, Iran reconstitutes. Source: NYT
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The destroyer USS Pinckney is out there patrolling like it owns the Gulf. Iran's sea trade? Completely shut down. Zero ships in or out. The blockade is squeezing them. Source: @CENTCOM

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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
Everyone’s so upset over markets printing new all-time-highs despite a pseudo-war with Iran and oil volatility. Based on my experience, I promise you nobody with serious money is trading based on what Trump says or tweets. They’re trading on what he does and what other institutions are doing. I know you’re all upset at the orange man and “Trump Taco” but institutional money is about 10 levels above all that noise.
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Jon Klein
Jon Klein@jonkleinx·
@VerminusM Because its not navy vs navy. All iran has to do is fire a few drones and missiles and the strait is effectively closed. Its not literally closed, it just becomes too risky to travel through.
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@Osint613 Waiting for the headline "Araghchi Defects to US Amid New Strikes on Tehran"
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@MarioNawfal The US is negotiating with a political arm of the Iranian regime while the IRGC does its own thing. The regime is utterly fragmented to their own detriment.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is holding back on new talks with the U.S. Tehran has not approved the next round of negotiations after the latest escalation. The reason? Iran says U.S. demands have gone too far and must change before any talks continue. The message was delivered through Pakistani mediators. If that doesn’t happen, Iran says it won’t waste time on negotiations that go nowhere. At the same time, tensions are rising fast in Hormuz. Multiple incidents were reported today, including confrontations at sea and warning fire near commercial vessels. My bet? This peace won’t last long.
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Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸 The USS Gerald R. Ford just entered the Red Sea, escorted by two destroyers. Houthis, you have a visitor.

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Defiant L’s
Defiant L’s@DefiantLs·
Belarus President Lukashenko: Donald Trump showed the world that the United States is "not" that powerful "If the Americans couldn't handle Iran, then they should not mess with China. They will never be able to deal with that kind of power."
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@JimHansonDC Might makes right. Not sure why this is a difficult concept to understand.
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breakingmetrics
breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@zriboua This entire conflict has been an effort to put a stranglehold on Russian and Chinese energy. Tie in Venezuela and Greenland and it starts to make more sense.
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Woke loather Jr
Woke loather Jr@JrWokeLoather·
@LePresidentBTC @breakingmetrics @beirutwire Lebanon is at war with Israel. Ceasefire was never respected by the Zionist entity, it continued bombing Lebanon. If that's okay with you french cuck it's not okay with the Lebanese resistance. Not to mention the religious obligation to side with your brothers in faith in IR&PL
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Beirut Wire
Beirut Wire@beirutwire·
Hezbollah’s war on Israel has cost us 800 kilometers of our country’s land. For nothing.
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@KurtSchlichter "The adults are in the room"... Adults don't show up at the last minute after a blockade has already been in effect.
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@gummibear737 Too many people have opinions about negotiations and they haven't negotiated a thing in their lives worth more than a couple hundred dollars. In my business, I've negotiated deals in the tens of millions. These things take weeks and several rounds of discussions.
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breakingmetrics
breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@MarioNawfal This is beyond embarrassing for a country that just got its teeth kicked in.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran now has "Fati Commando" brigades consisting of women in hijabs operating machine guns powerful enough to vaporize you while cruising in pink jeeps. I don't think Delta Force is worried
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran hasn't agreed to another round of talks with the U.S yet The decision reportedly stems from Trump's refusal to lift his naval blockade on Iran and "continued excessive demands" in recent messages. The Art of the Deal, eh? Source: Tasnim

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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
Iran appears to have 2 separate actors attempting to run (whatever's left of) the country. There's a political side that's negotiating and a clerical side that has gone terminal. Neither side is talking to the other. They have no idea what they're doing and it's going to end badly for them.
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World of Statistics
World of Statistics@stats_feed·
🇮🇷 Iran reimposes 'strict management' of Strait of Hormuz over US blockade. Iran's military declared the resumption of "strict management" of Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday (Apr 18), its military command said, hours after reopening it.
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@hahussain Iran's political and clerical arms are not in sync with one another. The US is negotiating with one side while the other side is still flinging threats at the Strait. This is an Iran in complete disarray. They have no idea what they're doing.
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Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Hussain Abdul-Hussain@hahussain·
But I thought Iran had bought Hezbollah ceasefire with Israel by opening Hormuz. What an Iranian empire of lies. — Iran on Saturday closed the Strait of Hormuz again after briefly reopening it, saying the move is a response to the ongoing US naval blockade. —
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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@MarioNawfal It sounds to me like the political and clerical arms of the remnants of the Iranian regime aren't talking to one another. All I see is an Iranian leadership in disarray and unsure of what direction it's going.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇮🇷 Iran’s Supreme Leader is openly threatening new military blows. Mojtaba Khamenei says Iran’s navy is ready to deliver “new bitter defeats” to its enemies. He also claims Iran’s forces are already confronting the US and Israel and exposing their weakness. This comes as tensions in Hormuz spike again. Today alone, multiple incidents were reported in the strait, including gunfire near commercial vessels and direct confrontations at sea. Iran is tightening control over who passes through. Source: MKhamenei_en TG
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Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷🇮🇳Iran's Navy reportedly opened fire on an Indian tanker that was trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz today. Gunfire was reported and the vessel turned around and exited the Strait. This is escalating quickly. Source: UKMTO

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breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
The Bill: - $58 billion in damaged Middle East energy infrastructure. - Europe six weeks from jet fuel cancellations. Gasoline up 13% in a month. - The IEA is calling it the biggest energy crisis the continent has ever faced. For the US? - Record oil exports and roughly $1.4 Trillion slated for AI infrastructure. If you're making a bet on what 2027 looks like, you're betting on a booming economy and that's exactly what the markets just told us. I wrote about what the market is actually pricing, why all-time highs during a blockade aren't a mistake, and where the money flows from here. New brief on Breaking Metrics: Magic 8 Ball open.substack.com/pub/breakingme…
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breakingmetrics
breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
Markets don't print all time highs when the Navy is losing a war. The S&P drew down 9% during the full Iranian closure, barely scratching correction territory, and closed Friday above 7,000 after the Navy blockaded Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. Iran re-routed ships around Larak this morning trying to reclaim leverage. The market already stress-tested this thesis and priced the answer. Here's what smart money saw while everyone else argued over Iranian AI slop.
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breakingmetrics
breakingmetrics@breakingmetrics·
@cruadin La Marqueta is next to be taken down by MTA's Park Avenue Viaduct reconstruction program. So when this bullshit fails, they'll blame Metro North construction for it.
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