Mixed Strategy

Alarms in Tatarstan (Kazan). Now that’s something you don’t see everyday…

Interesting Russian Telegram claiming Ukrainian UAV are dropping FPV to strike Novorossiysk in tonight’s operation…

@RonnieAdkins Good observation. Export risk was looming in the background as means of sustaining higher production rates since 25’ with a new revenue stream

Been told y’all.

Unannounced Plesetsk orbital launch tonight appears to be one of first without notification since 1966

@DoWCTO @DeptofWar @DOWResponse I feel like I’ve seen this before somewhere…

DEFENDING THE SKIES 🇺🇸

@nolanwpeterson Reference to SIM cards for Shahed-136 navigation you mean to relay flight data back to Iranian control team not as a replacement for satellite navigation? Also are you implying Iran could import a Russian Geran-3 variant to replace domestically produced Shahed-238 jet drones?

Some tells to look for that will indicate the Iranians are using Russian input to improve their Shahed strikes: -Systems to defend against GPS spoofing, such as the Kometa. -The use of decoy drones to saturate and exhaust air defenses. -The use of SIM cards to tap into cellular networks for navigation and telemetry. -Iranian Shahed variants that include performance upgrades that Russia has made to some of its domestically-produced Shahed analogues — such as jet engines. -Iran flying its Shaheds in meandering flight paths and a range of altitudes that match Russia's employment of Shaheds against Ukraine. This is a short list to start, and definitely not exhaustive. But the downstream effects of Russian assistance to Iran should not be difficult to identify.

@TheStalwart It would be interesting to see the raw text of conversation with @claudeai and instructions configured by @SenSanders team since the edited video doesn’t match output on screen (prev sentence ends with “process” not “tonight”).

Bernie’s curiosity about this technology is great.

1) In prepared testmony before Congress, STRATCOM today for the first time disclosed its estimate for Russian nuclear weapons: "approximately 4,600 nuclear warheads; 2,600 are intended for its strategic triad and up to 2,000 are warheads intended for theater nuclear weapons..."

The most consequential Russian contribution to Iran’s UAV capabilities over the past two years is likely in the real of operational learning generated through Russia’s large-scale Shahed employment in Ukraine.

CNN reports Russia is now providing Iran with more specific operational guidance on UAV employment, including targeting approaches derived from its use of Shahed drones in Ukraine. This is not very surprising but good to have it confirmed.

Another informative thread on difficulty degrading Iranian Shahed capacity worth a read. Pay special attention to posts 8/ need to destroy entire distributed ecosystem 9/ Shahed storage 10/ launch mobility (slide attached of similar truck launch platform for Geran-2)

@MassDara Surprised they only mentioned Alabuga’s site hardening with anti-UAV screening on Shahed production buildings, but not the increased air defense and EW positions around the perimeter and just south of the M7 highway @CSIS @CSISKoreaChair

Interesting report from CSIS on the expansion of Russia’s UAV factory that manufactures Geran drones (Shahed) over time. Noting some of the site protection mechanisms as well.

@nexta_tv Risk from Russia’s Alabuga production complex for Shahed drones increases as construction of new facilities continues. See video on site expansion and slides about technology sharing and foreign components used in Russian Geran-2 drones.

🤮 "My Parents Are Proud of Me": Alabuga-Polytech Launched an Entire Advertising Campaign to Recruit Zoomers to Assemble Geranium and Shahed Drones The videos encourage teenagers to participate in drone assembly, promising earnings of up to 350,000 rubles (3,325 EUR). The ads feature Zoomers themselves, who explain in the videos that they are already working at the company and are involved in UAV production. Alabuga is willing to pay prominent bloggers 1.5 million rubles (14,250 EUR) for publishing these ads. It's worth noting that these same companies are often targeted by airstrikes. But the authorities are silent about it.

@DefenceHQ @LukePollard Why post a “reveal” video of an identifiable UK repair center in Ukraine at risk of being geolocated and targeted? How did this ever get approved for publication by @DefenceHQ ? @DefenceU @FedorovMykhailo

This is complete gobbledygook.

@DefenceU Looks like a fair trade! (Ex. SkyFall P1-Sun / @wildhornets STING )

We can help you fight against Shaheds. Help us fight against ballistic missiles.

@RALee85 US had to expect degree of information and technology sharing between Russia and Iran. It even happened at the product level with initial Shahed designs and cooperation continues to pose a risk

“Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating — even indirectly — in the war, according to three officials familiar with the intelligence. The assistance, which has not been previously reported, signals that the rapidly expanding conflict now features one of America’s chief nuclear-armed competitors with exquisite intelligence capabilities. Since the war began Saturday, Russia has passed Iran the locations of U.S. military assets, including warships and aircraft, said the three officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.” @nakashimae @wstrobel @noahjrobertson washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

@anneapplebaum @IlvesToomas @shustry This particular phrasing is misleading implying @CENTCOM is going to deplete Patriot inventories on Shahed intercepts

Strange that the US did not consult Ukraine, whose army knows how to counter attacks from thousands of cheap drones, before starting a war in the Middle East From @shustry and Nancy Youssef theatlantic.com/national-secur…