Rob Lee

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Rob Lee

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.

Katılım Kasım 2015
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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
Last month, I interviewed Lieutenant Colonel Vladyslav "Shram" Tovstyi, the commander of the 38th Marine Brigade's (@38obrmp) Corsair UAS Battalion for the Ukraine Military Podcast. (00:00) Introduction (03:35) The background of the Corsair Battalion (04:40) What is the current situation and the effect of weather on the battlefield (06:50) Russian tactics (08:25) Assessment of Russia's Rubicon Center (09:35) Effect of Russia scaling its unmanned systems forces (10:45) What was the effect when Russia lost access to Starlink? (11:20) What effect is Ukraine's Middle Strike campaign having on the front line? (13:43) Urban warfare in Myrnohrad vs fighting for tree lines (16:20) Role of fiber optic cable FPVs and what is the ratio of fiber optic to radio signal FPVs from both sides? (19:35) Use of Starlink on FPVs and heavy bomber drones (20:55) Accuracy of fiber optic cable and radio signal FPVs and how many FPVs are used per day (25:15) The role of tall buildings in drone warfare (26:45) UGV and UAS logistics (29:10) How many heavy bomber drones do you lose per week and what are the typical missions? (30:30) How many UGV missions are conducted per day and how many UGVs do you lose? (32:09) Assessment of the E-points system (34:15) What is the structure of your UAS Battalion? (35:00) What lessons should other militaries draw from this war about drone warfare? (37:15) What effect would another Russian mobilization have on the war? (39:40) How many Molniya and FPV do you face per day? youtube.com/watch?v=Kt2N-W…
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Ukraine Control Map
Ukraine Control Map@UAControlMap·
Daily Ukraine map thread for Thursday 30th July 2026 Poland was struck by a Russian missile, causing minor damage to a field ~100 km inside Poland. We shall see what comes of it, and give Poland a chance to show its quality. Meanwhile, Ukraine has struck Wildberries logistics hubs at ~750 km and ~1,300 km depth, repeatedly setting them ablaze. The full bill will come when the fires are out. It seems likely to be substantial. Taman oil storage was struck by Ukrainian drones and set alight. The midstrike campaign continues: locomotives, logistics, shipping, substations. Russia has been made to pay for each of them. July has been an expensive month. Ukraine changed course from Syrskyi to Drapatyi. Its attacks on shipping - begun almost by happy accident - have halted Sea of Azov traffic and heavily restricted Russia’s use of the Black Sea. A Tu-95 was destroyed by a sneaky bear. Wildberries, a multi-billion-dollar business, has been taken to the cleaners in less than a month. And what has Russia purchased with all this? It matters little which map you prefer - propaganda maps or data-driven. They all paint the same picture. After all the men, all the equipment, and all the effort expended, ~150 km² is what Russia has to show for July. A costly harvest indeed. August will tell us whether Ukraine's changes under Drapatyi begin to bear fruit, whether Molochka reaches its final days, and how hard Russia is prepared to push for the next few square kilometres.
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Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦@IAPonomarenko·
Давааааайте, рідненькі, менше 200 підписів залишилось! Наші народні депутати зараз працею зморені та мають канікули під час війни, тому треба брати ініціативу в свої руки і добивати цю петицію - іноземні воїни мають право отримувати звання "Герой України" за свої звитяги на полі бою. Підпишіть -- це дві хвилинки часу. petition.president.gov.ua/petition/264020
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Brady Africk
Brady Africk@bradyafr·
New satellite imagery from @vantortech offers a closer look at Russia's Avitek plant, hit last week by a Ukrainian missile as part of Kyiv's growing campaign against the facilities supplying the Russian military. See more imagery of these strikes here: viewsfromabove.bradyafrick.com/p/ukraine-wide…
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Travefella 🇺🇦🇺🇸
Travefella 🇺🇦🇺🇸@travefellarina·
@RALee85 @Biz_Ukraine_Mag I don’t think the parallel holds. The sentiment among Ukrainians is v. positive in regard to soldiers and veterans because they fight existential war. Vietnam war was never existential to Americans. What Ukrainians are tired of is lack of reform, lack of plan & lack of direction
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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
An interesting op-ed from a Ukrainian serviceman: "Let's be honest: ordinary society is currently almost completely unprepared to meet those who are doing everything so that, in the thirteenth year of the war, Ukraine continues to exist and fight. I'm not talking here about the families and loved ones of servicemen, but about the millions of citizens and their families who are evading military service, for whom war is something far away... Analyzing how the civilian world in Ukraine's rear is preparing for mass demobilization and the return of servicemen, another historical experience comes to mind — the U.S. circa the 1970s, right after the end of the Vietnam War. This parallel is the most frightening, because we risk repeating someone else's social catastrophe while having our own, even more complicated starting conditions... But American society back then pushed away not only evaders — it also pushed away its own veterans, because of deep rejection of the war itself. Coming home, soldiers faced aggressive protests, accusations, and complete disregard for their trauma. Our war is existential; in many cases servicemen are respected only in words. It's an abstract, "remote" respect that works flawlessly on social media and collapses instantly on contact with reality. The isolation of Vietnam veterans arose against a backdrop of social hostility. Ours risks growing not out of hostility, but out of institutional incapacity and civilian fear of the hard experience of war. These are different diseases, but the result could prove equally destructive." pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/20…
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Christopher Miller
Christopher Miller@ChristopherJM·
Truly horrific. A Russian missile struck a family home near Zelenskyy's hometown of Kryvyi Rih overnight. "The Russian missile struck with such force that almost nothing was left of the house… Fragments of human bodies were found under the rubble, and only forensic examinations can establish which members of the family they belong to."
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa

Today, the Russians used their ballistic missile to destroy an ordinary house belonging to an ordinary family in Radushne, near Kryvyi Rih, in our Dnipro region. It was the Voronov family: mother Olena, father Artem, seven children – Mark, Dominika, Zakharii, Azarii Ilai, Federica, Emilia, and Viorika – and one-and-a-half-year-old grandson Artem, the child of their eldest son, who is now defending Ukraine. As of now, it has been confirmed that parents and three children – Mark, Azarii Ilai, and Emilia – were killed. The Russian missile struck with such force that almost nothing was left of the house… Fragments of human bodies were found under the rubble, and only forensic examinations can establish which members of the family they belong to. The fate of Zakharii, Dominika, Viorika, Federica, and Artem is still being determined… It is a horrific crime of Russia’s war against Ukraine – against ordinary people, against ordinary life. This Russian evil can only be stopped by the whole world. No one in the world can be left to face such terror alone. And when we say that Ukraine needs missiles for Patriots, when we seek the capabilities to defend ourselves against Russian ballistic missiles, this isn’t about abstractions. We are talking about families like this, people like these, who can live if we have the means to shoot down Russian missiles – if our partners help us with interceptors. Families who can be killed if we have nothing to stop Russian Iskanders with. It is important that these people are seen by those who make decisions – decisions at the Pentagon, in European capitals, and everywhere in the world where there is an opportunity to help Ukraine protect lives. Reality speaks for itself. Protecting lives is necessary. Air defense missiles are necessary. Eternal memory to all Ukrainians who were killed by Russian strikes… Eternal gratitude to everyone who helps!

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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
Ukraine’s Lasar’s Group intercepted a Russian Z-20 ISR UAS at an altitude of 6,400 meters. t.me/lasars_group/2…
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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
@Mankosmash I don't the breakdown, but I have heard that French intelligence is playing a growing role.
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Mankosmash
Mankosmash@Mankosmash·
@RALee85 I'm sure it's 99% US & 1% French, but they had to throw in the French there so the Europoors wouldn't have to admit that the US is still carrying the war for them.
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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
“The Ukrainian campaign knocked out more than 30 and 45 per cent of Russia’s actual and nominal capacity, respectively, triggering the worst fuel crisis in the petrostate since the collapse of the Soviet Union… Ukraine’s targeted campaign, aided by US and French intelligence, has helped trigger a severe fuel crisis in Russia, with sales restrictions in nearly every region and long queues at filling stations. Russia had restored some refining capacity, helped by a resumption of operations at Omsk, said Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining at S&P Global Energy. But much capacity remains offline, making supply to Russia’s otherwise balanced domestic market “very challenging”, he added.” @NastyaStognei @sdbernard ft.com/content/3990cb…
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Rob Lee@RALee85·
"Former Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, in an interview published on Wednesday, said his efforts to overhaul the military's procurement system were the main reason behind his dismissal this ​month in a military and political shake-up... 'The reason is connected with ​procurement, tenders, to the fact that we began overhauling the processes in this ​area,' Fedorov, 35, told Ukrainska Pravda. 'This caused significant dissatisfaction among many people, ⁠who then started constantly exerting influence and spreading negativity, not just around the president but ​across the broader media space.' Fedorov, who held office for six months, said his first undertaking ​in office was to introduce a tender system for procurement. 'Our task was to fix the root of the problem as quickly as possible,' he said. 'First, launch tenders. Second, restructure the management system in the Defence Ministry, ​and choose the people working there differently, based on the goals we came in ​with.'" reuters.com/business/aeros…
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Rob Lee@RALee85

“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to remove defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the 35-year-old architect of Ukraine’s wartime defence technology drive, after just six months in the post as part of a major cabinet reshuffle. Several senior figures close to Zelenskyy said the president had held conversations about replacing the minister as he prepares to unveil his new government on Thursday… But defence industry officials, senior Ukrainian officials, MPs from Zelenskyy’s party and others familiar with the matter have said — some publicly — that Fedorov had been a barrier to interests seeking to profit from Ukraine’s vast wartime defence budget… Fedorov repeatedly blocked attempts to steer lucrative procurement contracts to favoured companies, which put him at odds with powerful figures inside Ukraine’s political and defence establishment, said people familiar with the situation.” @ChristopherJM ft.com/content/c2b9d7…

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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
"Investigative actions are underway at more than 100 Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centers (TRC) of different levels across most regions of Ukraine as part of a large-scale operation called “Honest Conscription”, the State Bureau of Investigation reported. The operation is being carried out jointly with Ukraine’s General Staff. According to investigators, the main focus is on: helping people evade mobilization in exchange for money; abuse of authority by TRC officials, including beatings and torture of men liable for military service. The SBI said the effort is 'comprehensive work to clean up the system, not a reaction to one high-profile case.' 'For many in the TRCs, today truly is a ‘clean Thursday.’ As a result of the investigative actions, detentions and charges are expected in various regions of the country,' the agency said." hromadske.ua/en/society/268…
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Rob Lee@RALee85·
Video from GUR of a strike on a Russian Murmansk-BN EW system in Crimea. t.me/DIUkraine/9013
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Stanimir Dobrev
Stanimir Dobrev@delfoo·
Updated Wildberries infographic. Again worker numbers are likely higher as we only have data for the first stage of the Penza warehouse and equipment in the warehouses would cost likely more than rebuilding them. We may also need a bigger map.
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The Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent@KyivIndependent·
On July 30, Russia launched a massive countrywide missile and drone attack on Ukraine, killing at least eight people, including two children. Strikes damaged residential buildings and critical infrastructure across Kyiv, Lviv, Kryvyi Rih, and Poltava Oblast, with rescue operations still underway. Videos: State Emergency Services; Andriy Sadovyi / Telegram; Volodymyr Zelensky / Telegram
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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
"For every day that the ports of Greater Odesa remain idle, shipments of Ukrainian goods worth around US$70 million are delayed. [Greater Odesa is a logistical and industrial hub in Odesa Oblast that combines three major ports – Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi – ed.] Details: In June, the three ports of Greater Odesa shipped goods worth US$2.1 billion, with total Ukrainian exports at US$3.5 billion. This means that an average US$70 million worth of goods passed through them every day. In the first half of this year, Ukraine exported 50.7 million tonnes of goods. About 34 million tonnes, or two-thirds, went through Greater Odesa. Exports are not the only goods transported by sea. Of the 68.5 million tonnes of goods that crossed Ukraine's border in both directions in the first half of the year, more than 40 million tonnes did so on ships – 6 tonnes out of every 10." pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/…
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Rob Lee@RALee85·
"Ukraine's General Staff announced on July 29 an audit of combat unit staffing and manpower allocation under its new commander, General Mykhailo Drapatyi. The move comes after long-standing criticism of Drapatyi's predecessor as Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, over the disproportionate diversion of Ukraine's scarce mobilized recruits to newly formed brigades and assault units widely criticized as ineffective and notorious for abuse, violence, and wasteful attacks. 'The key goal is to assess the actual state of manning in brigades, regiments, and corps, analyze the effectiveness of personnel distribution among units, and identify ways to improve personnel management,' the General Staff's announcement read... 'These decisions are aimed at increasing combat readiness, ensuring personnel balance and more rational use of human capital,' the announcement added. 'Any systemic changes in the army begin with a change in attitude towards a person.'" @francisjfarrell kyivindependent.com/general-staff-…
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