Jack Forehand

“Risk looks highest when returns are best.” In our latest @excessreturnpod, we sit down with legendary fund manager David Giroux. We discuss why the S&P 500 is nothing like the past, Nvidia’s moat may be shrinking, and the most overvalued part of the market isn’t the Mag Six.

Vol premium is near historic highs. But VIX is only 25. On the latest OPEX Effect on @excessreturnpod, @spotgamma explains what’s going on behind the scenes and what it could mean for the market. youtu.be/bwSaqCeTpLE

Markets are bad at pricing war risks. @dailydirtnap is on @excessreturnpod explaining why - and what to do with your portfolio when the underpricing flips: youtu.be/agpR02w944A?si…

“I recommend to young people that I meet to keep a diary. And not just to keep a diary, but to reread your diary so that you can put yourself back into the mindset you were in—the decisions you took and why you took them.” - @gave_vincent Counting down our favorite answers to our closing question: “What is the one lesson you would teach the average investor?”

"Making money is great, but first I wanna survive."  "People go into investing, they wanna be right. I just wanna be the least wrong." Vitaliy Katsenelson, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski discuss investing in uncertain times.

@Z00landr @spotgamma Thank you!

@practicalquant @spotgamma Appreciate all the work you and Brent do.

@practicalquant @spotgamma When is the next OPEX effect? thx

“Every biotech company is basically a bag of options.” Low odds. Long timelines. Huge dispersion in outcomes. In our latest episode, D.A. Wallach explains the framework behind one of the most misunderstood sectors in investing.

“The range of possible outcomes has gotten much wider.” With AI, geopolitics, and macro uncertainty driving markets, strong takes are everywhere. Vitaliy Katsenelson explains why humility may be the better strategy.

Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. @dawallach has thought longer and harder about this than anyone I know - so I asked him to come on @excessreturnpod and break it down: youtu.be/45jMPeqcc50?si…

Your unemployment rate looks fine, but your labor force is collapsing. That's the case in 32% of US counties today. The problem is - that's up from only 8% of counties as of 2010. @EricPachman has the data, @Panoptica_ai + @EpsilonTheory have the story:panoptica.ai/the-systemic-h…

We covered a lot of ground this week on @excessreturnpod with new interviews featuring Jim Paulsen, Vitaliy Katsenelson, and Joseph Shaposhnik. @CultishCreative and I highlight the best moments and break down the biggest lessons. youtu.be/motYBjqh5YI • The growing gap between tech and the rest of the economy • How investors should think about AI disruption in software • Why humility may be more important than ever • The potential for a long-term defense spending supercycle • Why more policy “juice” could be on the way

“For the longest time, software was thought to be one of the highest quality business models in the world. I’m not sure that’s still the case.” Joseph Shaposhnik joins @CultishCreative and @bogumil_nyc to discuss: • why he sold software in 2025 • the opportunity in defense • how he finds durable recurring-revenue businesses

"Making money is great, but first I want to survive." Vitaliy Katsenelson on humility, uncertainty, and why investors must prepare for a wider range of outcomes. New Excess Returns.

How to be a value buyer and growth holder. And, keep your soul in the game. @vitaliyk + @bogumil_nyc on @excessreturnpod out now! youtu.be/hGdlw4F9OGo?si…

"Even if they take share and GDP grows, there's just not enough support for all of the tech companies that are priced the way they are to all win." Andy Constan explains the GDP math behind AI

Friday, I had the great pleasure of again joining @practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com youtu.be/aZbJ7vH2Fts

Big week on @excessreturnpod with episodes featuring Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu and a new Last Call with Brent Kochuba, Ben Hunt, Meb Faber and Rupert Mitchell. @CultishCreative and I condensed the biggest insights from all of it into an hour for our new weekly roundup.

"There's 14% growth in real new era spending, and there's 1% growth in the remaining 89% of real spending." "We got one small part of the economy just exploding in growth. And then the great bigger part of the economy, which is flat lined." - Jim Paulsen

“89% of the economy is basically flatlining.” New era tech is masking weakness across the rest of the economy. In our latest Jim Paulsen Show on @excessreturnpod, @jimwpaulsen breaks down what that means for markets and investors.

AI isn’t a magic alpha button. But it can add real leverage to an already strong investing process. Matt Reustle explains.