Data 4 The People

"The change in the labor force over time is like economic gravity. When it rises, a local economy can grow. When it declines, economic problems compound." "The Systemic Hemorrhage" by @EricPachman panoptica.ai/the-systemic-h…

Your unemployment rate looks fine, but your labor force is collapsing. That's the case in 32% of US counties today. The problem is - that's up from only 8% of counties as of 2010. @EricPachman has the data, @Panoptica_ai + @EpsilonTheory have the story:panoptica.ai/the-systemic-h…

At Data 4 The People, we’re democratizing this data. We’ve visualized 35 years of county-level shifts to show you the scary reality facing 1/3 of US counties. Full study 👇 data4thepeople.com/p/viral-labor-… #EconomicJustice #DataViz #RuralDecline #LaborMarket

3/ Look at the data: In counties like Limestone, Alabama, we see booming labor force growth. But 100 miles away, the labor force is in structural decline. Inequality isn't just about your paycheck - it's about your zip code.

1/ Over the last 35 years, the American map has been redrawn. We’re no longer a country of broad growth; we’re a country of "hyper-growth islands" surrounded by a systemic hemorrhage of rural labor.

@EpsilonTheory the arsonist and the firefighter...

Nothing says confidence like an emergency rate cut.

@charliebilello The only way to get to 2% is to get shelter to ~2%. It was below that for years after 2008, lulling people into a sense of complacency that 2% is sustainable. But now hard to see it going back there. If it doesn't 2% is not just a myth. It's mathematically nearly impossible.

Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year.

My "American Income Fragility" visualization in @OhioCapJournal. 🙏One expense away from poverty is a reality for many. "See" for yourself. #Data #Econ #Inequality ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/03/12/hug…

here you go X. analyze all the moving parts of #CPI yo self! Eggs bring CPI down by an entire 10 bps just from cycling PY inflation. This will come to an end, but should get even more favorable next month. Not enough to offset gas price inflation! bancreek.com/p/bancreek-inf…

Just published this sensitivity analysis of #CPI to gasoline prices on Friday evening. $4 per gallon avg in March was my "extreme" scenario. Now, folks are expecting us to hit $4 per gal this week?? Anyway, expect 10 bps higher CPI in March for every 10 cents a gallon increase.

But my point Egor is I have a different goal. My goal is not to compound capital, or "get even." It's to compound community. So the entire discussion on timing is not relevant to me! Just need enough funds to have a decent standard of living (check). I'm hoping many of us can move from capital to community in the coming years!

@EricPachman Don't get me wrong, your interview with Jack was one of the best I watched and I'm big long bonds for quite some time unsuccessfully. Thing is 30% drawdown was caused by Covid, 50% was GFC. If you're on the sidelines since early 2024 - you need GFC to get even with the market

Yes, quite interesting! And helps me make sense of this. Just study the data, investors. The US economy was already falling apart before this war. Now it's hard to see how it's not much cooked. Follow the data and make decisions, not the herd. Or follow the herd. Whatever. 🤷‍♂️

@EgorBezel First off, data is way worse now than it was then. Second, would my life be any better if I made another 20%? Or would it be much worse if I lost 50%? I have answered that question for myself. Very happy to sit on the sidelines.

@EricPachman The problem is timing. Carefull look at the data was showing economy not good well before tariffs (like summer 2024?). Yet market is up 20% since then

This is one of my favorite sentences I've ever written. "The only difference in February was (other industries) didn't have Healthcare and social assistance pounding the offensive glass, rebounding their bricks, and dunking with authority." bancreek.com/p/feb-2026-jobs

@byHeatherLong analyze the wreckage here! bancreek.com/p/us-employmen…

JUST IN: A dismal February jobs report. The U.S. economy LOST 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate ticked back up to 4.4%. Even healthcare shed 28,000 jobs in February. December was also revised down to -17,000. January was revised to 126k. Unemployment rate: 4.4% —> highest since December (and one of the higher rates in past few years) Wage growth: 3.8% (well above 2.4% inflation)

Only surprise in today’s #payroll data: #healthcare jobs finally declined. Non-healthcare jobs have been dropping for a year. The market is finally seeing what @bancreek data showed all along: the US job market is healthcare or bust. #Economy👇 bancreek.com/p/us-employmen…

@PeterMallouk 🎉

For the first time ever, the U.S. is spending more on interest payments ($1.23T) than on national defense ($1.16T). The cost of past debt now exceeds the cost of protecting the nation. The bill for decades of borrowing has come due.

Sadly, many people may dismiss this logic (even though it is breathtaking to behold) simply because most humans can't understand complexity. As a chemical engineer, we studied chain reactions. As a railroader, I witnessed how one snow storm could bring the entire network to a halt. I have been fascinated by complexity my entire life, and all I have learned is that when you mess with a complex system, all bets are off. Things can get far worse than you can ever imagine. So, I appreciate this lecture so much. The complexity is stripped down and explained for us. And it's terrifying. But that is because complexity is terrifying when it goes bad. We love it when it works (e.g., global trade). And then expect it to behave logically when we screw with it. Sadly, we can't have it both ways. I'll be tuning in on Thursday!