Jake

The difference in Strait activity from when #3 first arrived / began observing the strait about 4-5 days ago to today is stark. Traffic has meaningfully picked up - there are still “dark” runs and ships transiting without AIS turned on, but there’s a lot more going along the coast of Oman. At least 15 ships have crossed, including at least 3 VLCCs. When we arrived, virtually none were going through. Then a trickle through the Qeshm channel. It’s meaningful now, could be talking low double digit percent of pre-conflict volume. Meanwhile, expectations for a US operation involving “boots on the ground” within the next week or two are still high among locals. When analyst #3 first got to the strait we were hopeful we’d get a clear cut answer - bullish or bearish, open or closed, war or deal. It soon became clear that was the wrong framework through which to view this trip. On the same day that we learned it was the broad expectation of nearly everyone in the region - from locals to informed parties - that US ground troops would be launching an operation (“boots on the ground!”), we also observed multiple ships beginning to cross the strait. Soon they weren’t just limited to the Qeshm channel. It is clear to us that this isn’t as much a story in isolation as it is a story about the multipolar world and how it’s rapidly changing from what we’re used to. It’s a story about parallel warfare and diplomacy, US promises for the “Stone Age” in tandem with Allies’ seeking new venues for negotiation, and the changing global climate that necessitates this balance. Before, it would have been unlikely to imagine a world where Japan, the EU and other US allies were negotiating with a country the US is directly in conflict in to secure passage and work on agreements while the US still maintained footing for an escalation of kinetic warfare. Now, that’s simply how the world works. These countries must deal with the issues imposed, as the US won’t be sorting it out on their behalf. It’s undeniable the world is very different now and viewing this conflict through the lens of the past 50 years is a flawed approach. On Sunday, we will release our report that covers in depth what we’ve learned, how complex the situation is and what investment implications and nuances exist that have longer term implications than the next 100 points on SPX.

so... I audited Garry's website after he bragged about 37K LOC/day and a 72-day shipping streak. here's what 78,400 lines of AI slop code actually looks like in production. a single homepage load of garryslist.org downloads 6.42 MB across 169 requests. for a newsletter-blog-thingy. 1/9🧵

Subscribers get a one-time credit equal to your monthly plan cost. If you need more, you can now buy discounted usage bundles. To request a full refund, look for a link in your email tomorrow. support.claude.com/en/articles/13…

@bigben7182000 @steipete

Please bid and help me support my all time favorite charity Make A WIsh !!!!! Crash at my lake house for the weekend this Summer in the beautiful village of Skaneateles NY, Eat great VIP dinners at my restaurants in town, and have epic times with me while all your donated funds go to these amazing kids wishes ! I’m a hermit and don’t usually have many people over but for this charity I will gratefully love you to be my guest ! @MakeAWish

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