Andrew Tuttle

@ezlazar Probably bc you are watching the game with a biased lens. Your brain is actively looking for SGA "grifting" and undeserved FT trips. When one happens it pops as a big event. There were two SGA FT trips last night that were meh. That ruined a great game for you?

My spicy NBA takes always get me in trouble on here, but watching SGA grifting for four quarters last night was painful. He's a great player, who is probably going to be a back-to-back MVP. But, man, people find that style of basketball entertaining?

@SamQuinnCBS I think IHart extended, Dort out, Kenrich team option declined (can come back on 4MM vet min with 2.5 cap hit if he wants), and one draft pick in. That's all in summer. Then trade off one mid (5-10 mil) salary at Feb 2027 deadline to drop below 2nd apron - based on who is excess

If I were to guess at OKC's finances next year, I would say Dort/Wiggins/Joe are gone, Hartenstein is back at a lower salary for 2-3 years, One of the Clipper/Sixer picks is used and the other is traded for a future pick, and the last two roster spots go to Carlson and Barnhizer.

@paydawg2 @tomhaberstroh Agreed, I also wouldn't consider the Pels a tanking team. They are a pretty bad team, of course, but certainly not tanking in any way, favored tonight against the Heat, etc. Big big difference playing NOP twice in March versus playing Utah or Memphis twice in March

@AndrewTuttle @tomhaberstroh Same with Pelicans.

NEW POST: The James Harden Cavs have the most remaining games against tanking teams. Why I think they can make a run and win the East: tomthefinder.com/p/the-james-ha…

@sponhourm Do a "team selection draft" annually where each franchise chooses another team's pick for the next year. Bad teams get high picks. A bad team this year will choose the Kings 2027 pick. Good team gets stuck with Celtics, etc. No one has their "own" pick for the active season.

Outside of the NBA stepping in when a team takes it too far I don’t see a solution for tanking

@SamQuinnCBS Certain teams would have too much incentive to "tank" around the play-in. Fans would be against their team getting that 8 seed if it meant a true 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 chance at a strong #1 pick (like Wemby, Flagg etc).

I have a new convoluted idea to address tanking/the lottery: a lottery without a fixed number of teams. Very straightforward. Flat odds. Miss the playoffs, you’re in. But you can’t be in consecutive lotteries, and if you’ve been in two out of three, you’re out for the next two. The draft order after the lottery is solely based on record. If six teams are in, you draw for six picks. If 10 teams are in, you draw for 10. There will still be naturally bad, young and rebuilding teams. But there will be less incentive to be explicitly terrible or string together several bad years. I have an anti-gap year addendum I’d consider as well. If you’ve made the NBA Finals within five seasons, you’re banned from the first lottery you’d otherwise be eligible for. Second time, you’re good to go. I’m open-minded about this. I just don’t want good teams taking gap years to take advantage of flat odds. Anyway, most of the lottery concepts I conceive at 4 in the morning are riddled with unintended consequences. So please let me know what I’m wrong about here.

@ThunderChats It's because Conley going Minny to Chicago .....and then Chicago to Charlotte .....were booked with league as two separate trade transactions. After clearing waivers, Chicago is now the team Conley couldn't sign with.

I didn’t think this was allowed..?

The real positive for OKC in regards to the Clippers trading away Harden + Zubac is that the 2026 1st rounder should stop climbing up. There was a chance the pick could end up around #20 the way LA was playing. Now seems it’ll settle around #10. Too many tanking teams below them but a pick in the 10 range in this draft would be a big win for OKC. (By the way, these were smart long term moves from LAC. But also benefits OKC in 2026 + 2027.)

@CoreyB08 @YossiGozlan Nah, you can prorate the 1.27mm rookie minimum for the portion of the season you are signing for. That's the cap hit. So 480-485k ish to sign a rookie rest of season now (about 40% of the 1.27mm)

@AndrewTuttle @YossiGozlan Minimum nba contract is 1.1 mill

This leaves the Celtics just $3.6 million above the luxury tax line. They're on the cusp of getting under it entirely. They could trade 3 additional minimum salaried players for nothing and have enough space below the tax line to backfill the roster without exceeding it later.

@SteveThunderfan lol, no way. Jaren going to pick up an ankle sprain on flight to Salt Lake City.

The Jazz pick is back in play

@CooperJNBA He will get declined into RFA in 17 months and retained with a 4-5 year contract extension then

Ajay has gotten so good so quickly I'm already nervous about his contract ending in a couple years lol

@SteveThunderfan Good thread. Agree on the current wrist adjustment period. However, don't think this discussion is only a wrist injury/recovery one. Even from 24/25 reg season, I think there are some question marks regarding if Jdub's effectiveness in a big 28-30% usage type role, generally.

This is just an acknowledgement that IF this is who Dub is now, which I don’t think will be the case BUT because if the wrist is not a possibility I think we can ignore: - A: Worth it lol 💍 - B: Yeah, we do have a problem

Wanted to get some long thoughts out but don’t feel like editing. Result is a deeply buried lede so I’ll just put it up here: this is mostly about Dub. The last couple games go mostly on the (lack of) energy and bad Shai (which, also energy) for me - the schedule’s (1/4 or 5)

@ByMikeJones The Falcons needed a full organizational front office clean out. And get the best people in those roles with a clean slate. The last few years have been a FO disaster class. So unfortunately, I think Raheem is just collateral damage of the full organizational reset.

You give a man only two years with all those questionable draft and free agency moves and non-moves and disregard the strong finish?

@JakeMarsh18 Saturday being the same conference is a real thing now. SF at Philly is still the #1 ratings game of the week and wouldn't be Sat. And Steelers/Ravens would lean to be not Saturday after playing late tonight. Therefore, Saturday had to be LAR/CAR & CHI/GB or BUF/JAX & LAC/NE.

3-for-6** But it doesn’t matter. We go perfect or bust.

Wow. I botched this. Not even close.

@KevinOConnor @ShamsCharania The March 1 is still helpful, because there are teams like Sixers last year that wanted to be a playoff team, and were trying for that - but pivoted to a painful tank to keep their pick the last 25 games when their goals fell apart. March 1 prevents that.

@ShamsCharania The first two are intriguing. I think the second one would be better if a team can’t have top four *odds* two years in a row, but they still have a chance to end up top four. Don’t love locking lottery positions on March 1st. Teams will just tank before then.

Sources said multiple ideas were proposed Friday as a brainstorming measure, including: •Limiting pick protections to either top four or 14 and higher •No longer allowing a team to draft in the top four two years in a row •Locking lottery positions after March 1

@JMToWin Chiefs win tiebreak with Indy/LAC (any 2 way or 3 way) at 10-7 IF Chargers lose the @ DEN game LAC wins tiebreak with KC at 10-7 if they win the @ DEN game. If the Chiefs win their last 4 AND LAC loses @ DEN, they are probably 85-90%+ to get in.

Apparently, this is a hot take(?) — but if the Chiefs win out, I think they make the playoffs. Look at the Colts’ schedule. Look at the Chargers’ schedule. They need to pass those two teams in order to make it. I don’t think the Colts finish 10-7 or better. The Chargers can, but I honestly think they’re underdogs to get there (Eagles // at Chiefs // at Cowboys // Texans // at Broncos). I don’t know what the tie-breakers shake out to if Chargers and Chiefs are both 10-7 with a split in their games. But it seems the hand-wringing and grave dancing has started a little bit early.

@aejonesleggo @strassa2 Nembhard should be in there, even though his exploration this season into a higher usage role hasn't been fantastic. But he's a winner IMO.

@strassa2 I'd prob go Chet JDub Duren Paolo Dyson Jabari Kessler Keegan Braun Don't care about anyone else You've basically got 2 guys who are lock all stars, then a half dozen guys who are various degrees of "high level starters" with a little "sneaks in an all star game" upside

2022 NBA redraft? Jalen Williams 1 Chet Holmgren 2 Paolo Banchero 3 Jalen Duren 4 Dyson Daniels 5 Christian Braun 6 Jabari Smith Jr 7 Shaedon Sharpe 8 Walker Kessler 9 Jaden Ivey 10 (Does Keegan belong in here? Or Mathurin?)

@GrnMtnSixer @KevinOConnor That pick was "the worst" of OKC/Houston/LAC. Because that pick is so likely to be 29 or 30, Philly traded it to Washington later for a few 2nds. OKC still owns the "two best" of OKC/Houston/LAC.

@KevinOConnor Didn't the Sixers get the 2026 pick in Harden trade? 2028 unprotected first-round pick 2026 first-round pick (from Clippers via Oklahoma City Thunder) 2024 second-round pick 2029 second-round pick 2029 first-round pick swap

Can you imagine?

@SteveThunderfan My view here: Decline and Sign Hart this summer for 3/75 or 4/100ish. Bring back all the big 7+ Wiggins/Ajay/Topic/Sorber next yr. Kenrich if he wants to sign for 2/8 vet min. Fits under 2nd apron. Then, pick to move on from Dort OR Caruso for 27/28 when SGA and Cason bumps.

Was talmbout this on pod but Ajay’s obvious quality really changes a lot about future offseasons. Sacrificing some guard depth to keep iHart, mainly, becomes a lot more straightforward with Ajay ready to step into a slot at 2.85M.