

Quant Chad
3K posts

@Autonomous_Chad
Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd. Quant @ZEITFinance














Lost at SEA. Again Yesterday, Opensea postponed its TGE indefinitely and proved they are one of the most greedy and dumb teams in crypto. By a lucky coincidence, a team of untrainable retards found themselves at the origin of an incredible NFT hype, and because of that, this group of scammers became ultra-wealthy. > They’ve generated $2.8B in fees over the lifetime of the protocol. > Raised $425M in funding. > And still it’s not enough. The CEO now says the market conditions are not right for a token launch and that they should wait for better times. And generously, they “allow” users to get their fees refunded in 3–6 waves. What about the first wave, which had volumes equal to all the others combined? Rhetorical question. After already making nearly $3B from some of the highest fees in crypto history, they decided to farm their users even more by teasing a token. Over the past year, this “farming” brought them another ~$10M - not even 1% of their total revenue. Was it really worth it? They could have launched the token in late 2022 – early 2023. NFT hype was fading, but monthly fees were still around $10M, and project FDVs were in the billions. SEA could have easily reached $5B+ FDV. They missed the moment. They could have launched in late 2024, when even Donald Trump was launching memecoins and altcoin valuations were near cycle highs. They got rekt again. Finally, they could have launched in late 2025 - BTC and ETH were at highs, liquidity was still in the market. Even then, a $2–3B FDV was realistic. Third missed opportunity. Meanwhile, interest in NFTs has been declining for 4 straight years - and that trend will never end. Even the last major NFT marketplace, Magic Eden, is cutting staff, shutting down divisions, and its token is down 98% from TGE, now valued at just ~$120M. Even today, they could probably launch at around $500M FDV. But for Opensea, that’s not enough - they blame the market. The reality is simpler: it’s not the market - it’s that both you and NFTs are no longer in demand. And the longer they delay the TGE, the lower the token price will go. Even if the market has bottomed and BTC goes above $100K, it won’t happen tonight or next week. NFT interest will keep fading, and SEA valuation will keep shrinking. And what if the market keeps bleeding for another 6 months? What if we revisit these levels in a year or more? Will Opensea even be worth $200M by then? I highly doubt it. If you farmed the airdrop - take the refund. Don’t listen to anyone telling you to wait for TGE. And unfollow them - they will lead you to getting wiped out. Opensea TGE will NEVER happen. p.s. Polymarket gives 78% that we will see TGE this year. Safe bet on No at 22c lol




In case you didn’t hear, Scotland has voted NO to assisted suicide!!!!!!!!!🏴🍾







LP rewards ATH on Polymarket Top 1 trader made 7k$ on farming for last 24h, I made ~80$ yesterday and already 116$ today 50 likes and I'll make a guide on how I do it




Best strategy for people with small deposit on Polymarket I tried farming rewards by providing liquidity on Polymarket. In just half an hour, I earned $6 on a $90 investment. That's 122,640% APY. How It Works: In the Rewards tab, you can see numerous markets where you can place limit orders with specific conditions to earn rewards. It's important to respect the max spread and min shares. The less competition and higher rewards, the more you'll earn. My case: today I captured 50% of the market with $150 in rewards. That's a lot. How I Select Markets: – Sort all markets by reward amount. I look at the 'competition' scale. If there are only 1-2 bars, I study the market more carefully. It's important to me that there isn't too much liquidity in the price range I need. I skip 0 bars. – Skip markets with too much spread. Your order might fill at an unfavorable price, forcing you to sell at a loss. – Skip illiquid markets. If my order fills, I won't be able to sell the shares to anyone. – Markets with tight spreads (1-3) are good picks. I look for the right price to buy. I try to place my orders second or third in the order book so they don't fill first. – Place orders at existing price levels. If I see someone opened an order at $0.35 for $50, I'll place my order at that same price. I do this so if someone wants to sell at $0.35, their order fills faster and with higher probability than mine. – Open orders on 20-30 markets simultaneously to earn rewards from everywhere. – Check each order frequently to make sure it's not approaching the mid price and getting filled unexpectedly. – Always use only half my balance for orders. This ensures that if one order fills, the other orders don't get canceled and continue farming. – Check notifications constantly to see if any of my orders filled unexpectedly. – Always check market end dates. If a market ends in less than 24 hours, be careful—you could lose money. – Avoid highly volatile markets. You can also lose money on those. These are my core principles that I use. Hope this was helpful!


