eventwaves

@TycoonPal Because this is what polymarket themselves are telling people to do

why the fuck would you encourage people to create content instead of using the actual platform how don't you hear how retarded that sounds like the whole tweet can’t even tell if this is rage bait or not

@firstadopter “Wall Street” priced it at 185

Every investor who bought Cerebras on the hype yesterday is now deeply in the red. Great job, Wall Street. Sold to you, retail. Even insiders were wincing at the ridiculous opening valuation.

Don't get in the way of the AI train🚉. Lesson learned

@traderprad are you short?

$400 open is nuts. Can we not do that please? $CBRS

@traderprad Hyperliquid has it at 290 rn

This is going to open at like 222$ at this point.

Benn was made in a lab to annoy a particular subset of fintwit. And now we have to hear from them all

.@CFTC Staff Issues No-Action Letter on Data Reporting for Event Contracts: cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…

@cqkten @negligible_cap Hyperliquid had it at 314 earlier

@negligible_cap Polymarket quite confident it will close above 60B mcap

*AI CHIPMAKER CEREBRAS SAID POISED TO PRICE IPO AT $185/SHARE $CBRS now expected to price at $185 / share (up from $150 - $160) Should be pretty interesting tomorrow.

Polymarket 支持用户填写 KYC/KYB 表单，称可以获取同机房低延迟接入资格。

@PMTraderAdam The payroll stuff was seemingly not true

Didn’t they also say companies were getting enough money down to hedge their payroll? Which one is it? I feel these can’t be both true

@MarioIsmailanji @TheStalwart More time for meetings

@TheStalwart They likely do, but I think this phenomenon is also reflective of human nature and responses to prior productivity enhancements. Yes, your real output per hour works increases, but that can lead to “slacking” or increased leisure consumption.

Here's what's weird about this Amazon tokenmaxxing story to me. How is it that, online, there's so much consensus that the models are objectively useful for coding, and that 80% is a "target" for developer use. Why wouldn't they all be using it it makes their job easier?

@hardinpol 🤝

losing dollars chasing pennies

@CarOnPolymarket @nickdevor_ He already posted a free gift link right below the original tweet

Another misleading headline and article by Nick Devor. I told you in our conversation that these voters own insignificant amounts of UMA, some as little as $50. If those 72% vote with small UMA stakes like $50, and they vote correctly 99.9% of the time because otherwise they lose money, what does it matter? I’m not reading the rest of your slop article unless you send me a free gift link, because its not worth paying for. The hours I spent explaining UMA to you are probably not reflected in your article anyway.

SCOOP: 72% of Polymarket UMA votes have conflicts of interest. The yes-or-no questions posed by Polymarket don’t always have clear answers, but Polymarket has a process in place for disputed resolutions; in many cases, the prediction market has nothing to do with the result. Instead, an anonymous vote takes place outside of the firm’s platform. To participate, voters buy a cryptocurrency called UMA, which is currently valued at 51 cents a token. They debate how the market should resolve in a dedicated server on Discord. I reviewed a random sample of 50 Polymarket predictions resolved by UMA vote over a recent four-month period; 36 of them included UMA voters that had active bets on the markets they were voting to resolve. In every case, their UMA vote aligned with their prediction-market bet, according to an analysis of public blockchain data. For example, on the market "Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?", two UMA voters had positions on Polymarket that would pay out if that market resolved to “No.” Both voted for the market to resolve to “No.” UMA founder Hart Lambur said in an email that the potential conflicts I identified weren’t large enough to matter: “These votes didn’t shift the overall vote outcome at all and were meaningless to the final resolution.” Markets with contentious resolution debates often see their odds whipsaw as UMA voters decide how to vote. On the evening of March 29, the Polymarket odds of a Trump-Xi conversation began to climb, topping out at a 96.5% chance that, yes, the two leaders had spoken. There was no fresh news of a conversation that moved the market. Instead, the market seemed to move because a UMA voter controlling roughly 10% of the vote announced a “Yes” vote on Discord. The odds fell back down to 0% once Polymarket issued a clarification that “There is not a consensus of credible reporting that Trump has spoken to Xi in March,” despite Trump telling reporters he had. “UMA’s dispute resolution process is secured through economic incentives,” Polymarket said in a statement. “Voters must stake UMA tokens to participate, and incorrect votes are penalized through slashing, creating strong financial disincentives to vote against a verifiable outcome regardless of any external position a participant may hold.”

@DustinGouker I thought it was kind of fun

“Fantasy prediction market game” please shoot me in the face

@PhreeStyleBTC I think the D2C is mostly for demonstration and the real $ is in selling the chips to those frontier labs reuters.com/technology/ope…

I don't understand the point of Cerebras. They only list old, outdated models while their competitors offer frontier models. Pricing isn't that different either. Can someone please enlighten me?

When everyone on your side of the trade has negative PNL

Best to assume people living-tweeting their buy/sell reasonings are trying to manipulate Most people are operating under Tony G rules: "Of course I lied. Its Poker, Phil" youtube.com/watch?v=trYm4v…

I think we'll see another boom in 3D printing once AI makes the modeling part easier Any other industries like this? (where a software skill is a blocker to creating something physical)

@rickytheirish Have the shorter timeframes declined more vs the longer ones?

Polymarket has had their greatest descent in volume of all time as of late. They probably have very few opportunitys left to save their main cash cow, or it will be lost forever. The majority of their fees/revenue to the tune of 60% to 90% are from 5, 15, 60 minute crypto up down markets and the majority of polymarkets volume are from these markets. They have displayed an urgent sense of priority to fix many technical issues and have fixed certain site issues/platform/network issues that have plagued users for quite some time. That was very much appreciated be everyone i am certain. But was it too little, too late ? The real problem on polymarket has always been the markets that use chainlink oracle. That means 5 & 15 minute markets. The manipulation on these markets is beyond comprehensible. Both directly on polymarket when bots deliberately manipulate odds and share prices to desync share prices from the live price in order to confuse & misguide users... And directly through the chainlink funnel where people know exactly which cex's to buy or sell specific amounts at key moments to move the price on chainlink oracle at their will, often resulting in markets on polymarket that close at one price, but that then rollback and re-correct at a different price. That or causing those chaotic last second reversals. Something must be done to stop this or to reduce it, or they will sincerely lose all organic non bot users. The users opinions are unanimous, its rigged & a casino crap shoot & there is no way around that. However in the 60 minute markets things are much more reasonable & the manipulation is countless times less present & reflects the real market movements as closely as possible in this type of binary trading veiled as prediction markets. If polymarket does not either remove chainlink as the price resolution oracle or modify the way they decide a final resolution price in those shorter term markets, then they will truely lose their main cash cow for good. Its way too risky. Users risk capital for tiny gains because the shares are way too quickly at a price near a dollar..and without a stoploss, users lose everything when reversals happen and you are not able to ever sell shares in a reversal or moment where share prices vs live prices are desynced. Places like pocketoption allow you to decide where you open your trade at any time point interval and also where you close it from seconds to minutes to hours away. And regardless of where you set your open and close, your win % is always the same as opposed to polymarkets shares model where the later you buy, the less your % win.. (and as of late the shares are near a dollar so quickly that users make so little returns unless they buy before a time block opens which is just wayyyyy to risky to ever even think of doing) That is how binary trading is now, you open your contract at will at any open & close point. Polymarkets outdated archaic binary trading model forces users to pile into pre-established time blocks and everyone is in the same trade so to speak... Hence why people hunt blocks with larger volume flow and hunt individual accounts who bought more shares than they probably should. But thats another issue regardless and one thing at a time..i get it, its a hybrid version of binary trading designed for normies and to be hyper simplified. But if you want to expand, you must understand that less & less people are just buying a share as a bet and waiting for the outcome.. You will have more & more users using more technical methods that want to manage their shares as positions and hedge, offset, exit, sell tiers of profit and so on.. By simply removing chainlink as oracle or modifying the way they come to final price at a set time interval conclusion would be a great start towards not being viewed as a casino. Oh and the fees. The fees are just crazy now. Its way too expensive.

@LoganPredicts @tsybka @GenaTheCroco @DonaldJTrumpJr @mustafap0ly Not that I can find yet

@EventWavesIO @tsybka @GenaTheCroco @DonaldJTrumpJr @mustafap0ly Is there a clarification anywhere? I can not see anything and would like to know how it was clarified.

🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 Polymarket has nuked Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire markets. They are archived and the money will be returned in the way they see fit. They probably got a call from @DonaldJTrumpJr