eventwaves

@PredMarketWiki Also, you might want to check in again next week Im totally changing the direction of the site to something more interesting. Just putting the finishing touches on it now

@PredMarketWiki 🫡

🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki EventWaves @EventWavesIO is an analytics platform for identifying high edge opportunities on Polymarket. It analyzes trader skill and market momentum to surface trades with strong expected value 🌊📊

@Autonomous_Chad @PredMarketWiki Thanks Chad

@PredMarketWiki @EventWavesIO This one is actually solid

@HiveLiveHQ @probaaron @Kalshinomics I'm hyped

🛢️OIL MARKET CHECK🛢️ TOMORROW at 10am ET, we are LIVE with Aaron from Kalshinomics tracking geopolitical markets and their new tool to compare Oil futures with prediction market prices. Tune in to learn more about how to use these tools to your trading advantage.

@levelsio They started logging me out multiple times a day for some reason

Every week at least one day I am stuck in some weird Claude Code logging me out somewhere and then their OAuth is completely broken and I get stuck and can't code

@PredMTrader Do you think he reduces the number of speeches?

The first Kevin Warsh FOMC speech will be chaos A high volume mention market with no historicals, no data - just pure vibes

@probaaron I personally use my brokerage account. There may be a web source that has it live, but the first few I checked were all delayed

@EventWavesIO what's the best timely source of data to plug into? haven't touched oil markets, just curious and not as familiar

What % of the people trading Oil on Polymarket are using 15min delayed data? Significant, I think

@KolemanStrumpf Would you be able to send over some of the eventIds where you are missing info? matt@eventwaves.io if that is easier

@KolemanStrumpf hmm, maybe a me problem. I'll do some QA and get back to you later today!

Made a free API that gives you the category/subcategory for each Polymarket I'm open to any Category additions/changes!

For the oil ones, I think some of the big makers got burned early on and no one took their place Stock ones are pretty dead, yeah. They randomly push big rewards, but no one is ready. If I was Polymarket, I'd say we're going to have extra rewards for the Stock category From Apr 1 - 10. I'd prepare something for that and would probably leave it on afterwards even when rewards got reduced

@EventWavesIO I have recently started looking at these markets+the other similar ones, they are interesting but some of them are quite dead compared to others

@probaaron @semajeth @michael_lwy @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain @deepvaluebettor @andrewcourt1 @defiance_cr thanks!

@semajeth @michael_lwy @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain @deepvaluebettor @andrewcourt1 @defiance_cr agree, I've also been enjoying @EventWavesIO writing

Here's who to follow if you want actually good takes on prediction markets: @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @probaaron @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @sybilpm @nic__carter @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain @aaronjmars @klos @voliti_co @gemchange_ltd @hyperstiti0ns @benfielding @semajeth @0xjacobzhao @0xnagu @SolSt1ne @mikhryc0x @mikita_crypto @marvellousdefi @theoddchain @curiouscamilo @linfluence @jolimmmm @outpxce @socialgraphvc @DougieDeLuca @BetBreakNews @dbarabander @sidbharth @smaaaaliy @thejay @trashman18 @drNeyo @13_niakris @Baheet @a1research__ @akshayraj_v0 @reachavci @njokuScript

I just added it! api.eventwaves.io/polymarket/eve… Missing 1.9k out of 272k right now, but I'll clean those up soon. In the API docs, I put an example of how to combine the Polymarket Events data to the EventWaves category data eventwaves.io/api-docs If you have any questions about how to join from events -> markets or anything, just let me know. I'm trying to release a big Polymarket project early next week. If that goes well, I'll create a Kalshi version shortly thereafter and will need to create a similar API --- Also, I'm looking at some of the early Polymarket events and looks like they didn't have subcategory details. I'll try to add that in tomorrow

@EventWavesIO Just wanted to check in on this. No rush of course just be very cool to see tags for older markets (even better if it can be done for Kalshi too!)

@DustinGouker You're in the bubble with us 🫧

I am not sure the people in the prediction markets bubble realize how unhinged and disconnected they are from the rest of us. With a few exceptions.

@andrewcourt1 After the Philly Forecasting meetup, I had some fun looking at different MM users and analyzing who they were making money against/losing to

Market design isn't neutral. Every choice about anonymity, fees, and identity shifts money between squares, sharps, and dealers. Here's how Kalshi's RFQ system, Polymarket's on-chain wallets, and Kalshi's taker fee each change that balance - and who wins.

@AJButton2 That's right!

@EventWavesIO "low latency" Do you mean like the ones that rush in super quick to make small profits miliseconds AFTER the outcome is clear?

Just wrote about trying to beat the low-latency earnings bots on Polymarket (It did not go particularly well for me)

@eftegarie Same market?

I wouldn’t be surprised if my second polymarket bot (which i just launched yesterday) ends up outperforming my first bot. The goal is to make a bunch of bots, like in evolution having many variants out there, and see which set of rules prints the most cash.

@mara6588 Yeah, they’re buying at such high prices one bond miss can erase lots of gains

@EventWavesIO I have seen them fuck up few times. That must really hurt buying the opposite side

@eftegarie Yes, that's my one-sided rival haha. He changed his name a few days ago

@EventWavesIO excellent post bro, i guess this was about the user “iloveugpt”

@rileyxcook Yep. I was hoping people would have slow feeds since there isn’t that much money involved, but wasn’t the case

@EventWavesIO looked into this a bit awhile ago. it’s all about the source speed.