Quant Chad

It's now clear to all but a few lunatics that memecoins are done Prediction markets have taken their place in the heart of degens, just like memecoins took NFT's Yet every time you point this out, a demented memecoin fanatic screeches out in reply : "But brother ! I have seen people make x1000 in a day on memecoins, Prediction Markets are child's play ! " And yes : - he's probably talking about a fake screenshot he saw on his timeline - It was made on the back of a 99.6% loss rate retail audience that has since deserted the market But no matter how unhygienic and mentally ill he is. He still has some sort of a point. Facts are, although extremely rare, these things do happen and there is a certain kind of degen audience that lives only for it. So how do we reach them ? 1) Problem The upside on a single market is fundamentally capped, in theory at 1000x, in reality, at much less. The cheapest you can buy a share on Polymarket is in theory $0.001 (0.1c), if they go to the max of $1 then it's a 1000x But even now you will have an extremely hard time finding a counter party that wants to buy the opposite side at $0.999. When trading fees are introduced it will make even less sense for traders to buy shares at $0.999 since fees will eat all their profit So introducing even smaller denominations wont increase the multiple potential 2) Solution Derivatives. We need Derivatives. But we can't have perps on single markets with capped upside and an expiry date ( They are called Perpetuals for a reason) That's why we created Perpetual Prediction Vaults at @ZEITFinance, you invest not in a market but in a fund that constantly reinvest the proceeds in new markets. The vault can be operated : - By a good trader - According to predetermined strategy - By a bot or statistical model It doesn't really matter. What matters most is that we have transformed the single market outcome into a continuous price series. Now we can tokenize it. Which means we can plug it in all the existing DeFi eco, including perps. This way : > there is no limit to how much you can make. > the memecoin schizo can shut up > the degen can chase his 10000x As you see we worked very hard to kill the memecoin reply schizo and every minute of it was worth it

@MadRyeguy Yeah but they dilute the volume over so many key words that even there the volume per market isn't great

@Autonomous_Chad True yeah, though it would have to be a hell of a lot for say trump mentions.

Polymarket US is finally out to the public As expected it's mostly sports focused. Like +99% sports focused. All non sports market pulled together still make up less than 1% of the daily volume. During the closed beta, daily volume was hovering at a respectable $50M. For reference Kalshi's daily volume hovers around $500M. With the 1.4 million users that were already sitting in the wait-list + the newcomers, they may reach the hundreds of millions daily volume within the next month or two. This will seriously challenge @kalshi in their core market segment and will solidify @Polymarket as the undisputed industry leader. @kalshi what is your answer to this move ?

@Samk1719 @trevorlasn That's what I said

@Autonomous_Chad @trevorlasn Or the market is telling u people r more interested in sports than other stuff

@ClawArbs Of course that's their play, the US app's main purposes is to obtain these registrations where the international app could not. I see no reason why they wouldn't obtain them

@Autonomous_Chad yeah polymarket has the global crypto-native moat but kalshi has the US sports moat through cftc registration. these moats don't overlap perfectly, so each wins its niche. real risk for kalshi is if polymarket gets CFTC-regulated wrapper for US users via the new app

@trevorlasn Sad reality of the market

@Autonomous_Chad yeah Kalshi is the proof. their sports ticker count exploded once event contracts landed, non-sports just didn't keep up. retail shows up for games

@polybacktest Do you think they well extend the model to other countries ?

@Autonomous_Chad It's just a start, the expansion phase begins now

@MadRyeguy Probably because they are too easy to manipulate. If you had million of volume on those the target of the market could be tempted to manipulate it

@Autonomous_Chad Why do you think mentions get so little volume?

@0xtarzan1999 This sounds very bearish for Kalshicels

@Autonomous_Chad I mean this was bound to happen. Polymarket is a global brand. The thing is the US brings the highest sports gambling volume. Because of this, Kalshi is a leader. Now, Polymarket would eat significant amount of volume.

@Nopantspoly No as far as I know they are separated

@Autonomous_Chad Does that usa app and international polymarket share same market? i mean if im selling x shares someone from usa app can buy them?

@GenaTheCroco Yeah maybe they can even segregate the golems there

@Autonomous_Chad To be fair the only people dumb enough to not use poly international won't be interested in anything else than sports

@trevorlasn Sports is the main play if they can do it legally, just look at Kalshi.

@Autonomous_Chad yeah this tracks. sports is the on-ramp here, non-sports volume comes later when people stick around. seeing the same shape on the US wallets i track

@n0rulesnvr @williamlegate @SuperstateInc "iphone combined existing features in 1, the poly token would do the same" - mind blown, i didn't even consider this interpretation

@Autonomous_Chad @williamlegate @SuperstateInc i think it was something directly hinting at the 2 in 1 but don't remember, might be my mind playing tricks on me but imo the legate post is exactly the same iphone combined existing features in 1, the poly token would do the same

Will the future $POLY token be backed by Polymarket equity ? @williamlegate seems to indicate that the airdrop will somehow be linked to the coming Polymarket IPO One way it could work would be by making $POLY token pegged to stock price. There is nothing technically difficult about it, you can already trade $NVDA shares on Hyperliquid in their tokenized versions. In fact you can even trade Anthropic shares that aren't even public. Polymarket being the issuer would make that even easier. In fact It wouldn't be any more complicated than issuing a stablecoin, which Polymarket already does. That would be an elegant way to resolve the conflicting incentive of equity and token holders. They are both vehicles made to capture part of the value of the platform, and if they remain uncorrelated then they will be competing for this value, which will create friction between token and stock holders. It's just a theory right now but screenshot this just in case

@n0rulesnvr @williamlegate @SuperstateInc Thanks, that seems to be what they are hinting at

@Autonomous_Chad @williamlegate @SuperstateInc x.com/1confirmation/… i think shayne or possibly legate or one of the poly accounts also dropped a hint but don't remember what

@nkys666 @williamlegate they are risk takers, i think they will

@Autonomous_Chad @williamlegate Thought the same First ever tokenized stock crypto native Would be historical ngl not sure if they would risk it tho

@n0rulesnvr @williamlegate @SuperstateInc exactly, it would be a first for projects that size but it's a proven model. But I didn't know they actually hinted at it already, where was it ?

@Autonomous_Chad @williamlegate they could issue tokenized stock with something like @SuperstateInc this is not just a theory, poly and one of their earliest investors have hinted something along these lines several times

@GenaTheCroco @Polymarket it might be some intern trying to skim shares lmao

@Autonomous_Chad @Polymarket Well it seems all the "bugs" are always hurting me and rewarding either Polymarket or someone else, so I reiterate my word "predatory"

There are a lot of extremely predatory practices in @Polymarket that I've never seen in other Casinos. For example right now I placed an order of 200 shares, but the system decided to put the order for 207. 7 shares more. This is not the first time it happens, the last one I thought it was just a missclick, but this one I'm 100% confident my order was 200.

@0xCryptoSam @papertrade_xyz but what if traders on the platform win more than they lose ? Does this protocol broke if users beat the market ??

This is the most unique perps exchange design I've seen in a while. Particularly because of the $PAPER mechanism. Here's how it works: > @papertrade_xyz is a synthetic perps protocol on HyperEVM without fees, funding, or slippage. > If you lose a trade, your full margin goes to the LP. If you win, you get paid but the protocol takes a fee on your gain - the fee is smaller for big moves, bigger for tiny moves. That haircut is the protocol's only revenue. > The LP starts at $0. It fills purely from trader losses. If the LP can't pay a winner immediately, the payout enters an onchain FIFO debt queue and gets paid as the LP refills. > Losing traders receive PAPER tokens. The lower the LP balance, the more PAPER you mint per dollar lost. > PAPER can be staked to earn USDC dividends - a continuous cut of LP revenue. Once the LP exceeds $5M, all surplus gains go entirely to stakers. > When the LP is low, emissions are high, so this is theoretically the time to accumulate PAPER cheap (also the riskiest period - if volume dries up, the LP doesn't earn any revenue and the whole flywheel breaks). > When the LP is high ($5M), dividends are high, so this is theoretically best time to be staking. > With sufficient volume, both states create buying/holding pressure on the token. ----- Holding/staking $PAPER is essentially betting that traders will lose against the house, which is arguably one of the most reliable bets you can make (and a good hedge if you're a degen perps trader).

@lnkybtc Why are they denying application to the residents of Luhansk ? this is very racist of them.

Polymarket 支持用户填写 KYC/KYB 表单，称可以获取同机房低延迟接入资格。