Recovery Value

@SFarringtonBKC @athelascapital Clown?

@SFarringtonBKC @athelascapital isn’t this just luck? China exports keep ramping. Trox liquidity under pressure post inventory release. Similar to LYB where Chinese broke the global supply demand. Stocks moving w PMI/ expectations for things to get better - yet spot prices/spreads are not?

My Chemical Romance Part IV: Already Doubled, Still Room to Double Again: Tronox $TROX Thank you to @athelascapital

@ContrarianCurse WFE gated by cleanroom? Then further gated by litho? Incrementals all dram so math implies 150-180bn peak in near term. In that scenario wouldn’t want to be long ?

$AMAT you give me this bitch back at $270 and I will back up the truck.

@ContrarianCurse Tpu one big scale up essentially is the view. Hard to say. But profit dollars being competed away from NVDA seems clear

@ContrarianCurse Get you. Though BOM clear so has to be architecturally. Decompose to scale up / out bandwidth GB capacity flops etc. most externalized so internal cost curve advantage relies on scale up. Stock seems appropriate to rich on out year?

I can say this now because I’m long but the pain trade in $NVDA is just the multiple compressing cyclical style as numbers go higher due to an always coming ‘peak’ that may or may not come

@ACapitalLP Pre pack?

@ACapitalLP What do you think it’s worth? On my math around 300mm upper end. Curious how you get there.

@ACapitalLP Brazil equity value is immaterial. Bridging 26's isnt the issue. Funding the burn is. Was same hope when Jamaica was sold, which left the BS in one quarter.

@ACapitalLP 12's will be lucky to recover anything

@LNG_Investor_ Where was pricing rumored ? Seems unlikely to be higher margin vs existing SJ 5/6 given likely traded margin for duration + HH linkage vs diesel

Contract likely to be priced around HH + $7.95, 15 year duration, with minimum volume guarantees, supporting a run rate EBITDA of around $400mm+ $NFE

@TraderNorway More likely to get first day motions before Q1 cash flow statement. Bonds are toast

$NFE Why havent New Fortress Energy posted the 10Q yet?

@TheRoyaltyKing @SFarringtonBKC @ClarkSquareCap Turns out you didn’t 😂

@DKCCap @SFarringtonBKC @ClarkSquareCap That’s a really good idea, thanks for enlightening

Alright, it's been a while since the last one. What's your favorite idea at the moment and why? Any geography, any market cap, any style. Please include the ticker and a few sentences on why you like it. I will compile the results and share. Please RT for visibility!

@ACapitalLP 1L only in name. 🥯 Recovery from what? Recurring earnings power is negative.

@TBU12345678 What they say? Numbers looked fine

$ADI rugging everyone has to be the most satisfying thing to see in the market

@FPL_Harry If you had your AM chip left what would you do

Any Final GW35 Questions or Benching Ranking you need answering in tomorrows complete guide video?

@SFarringtonBKC Move in bonds says your math is wrong. EBITDA clearly negative ex-non recurring spot sales and won’t ramp. Liquidity so bad sold a main pocket of value at a massive discount to the curve. Wes running out of furniture to sell. Cash EBITDA < interest structurally so needs to rx.

New Fortress Energy (Reprise) $NFE

@cate_long Hi Cate - Is Genera providing the gas or has that yet to be disclosed?

Puerto Rico governor announces consortium who will build a new 478MW natural gas generation plant to suppply electricity to Prepa. Winning bid = 11.6 cents per kwh - substantially below OBoard's FY23 fiscal plan O&M cost of 24.2 cents per kwh #muniland elnuevodia.com/noticias/local…

@stockspinoffss @ACapitalLP HDD’s in very interesting place given S/D and rational acting. Think STX massively mispriced implying creating WDC at negative NAND value. NAND tough market but growing and capex muted so surely not worth 0….

@ACapitalLP L’express, beauty’s, Joe Beef, Kamuy, Fairmont / St Viateur (have them close together to compare)