Darvas Boxed
245 posts

Darvas Boxed
@DarvasBoxed
Amateur trader trying to outperform the legacy of Nicolas Darvas. Occasional political junkie.




This is not a short term trade... #GOLD vs. $QQQ This is a regime change and the check back looks complete.






Every $Silver bull run in the past executed a multi year pennant before completing the run. What price the pennant will take place is hard to know but will start off with around a 25% drop. Many will see this as the end of the run when it’s actually the start of consolidation before the euphoric stage.










🔥 Juniors are not just rising, they are exploding and eliminating I have analyzed the behavior of nearly 500 gold and silver juniors over the last 39 sessions, and what the data shows is not a normal market move, but something much more extreme. At first glance, one might think juniors are simply starting to move with gold and silver, but once you look deeper, the picture changes completely. The dispersion is wild. While one group of companies is up more than +60% on average, another group is down close to -60%. We are talking about more than 120 points of difference within the same universe. This is not a trend. It is a violent selection process. And this is where the first important message appears: it is not the ones that go up the most that win, but the ones that survive. Drawdown explains almost everything. The companies that are leading are not simply the ones posting the biggest gains, but the ones that manage to stay in control when the market tightens. They are the ones that advance without destroying their structure in every correction. The others are not just slightly lagging behind. They are sinking. That difference is essential, because in a universe like this the distance between being right and being wrong is not small. It is devastating. But there is something even more interesting. Leadership exists, but it is not stable. Many of the companies leading today were already showing strength before, yes, but in this kind of environment that is not enough. The market rotates quickly, changes hands, and forces constant validation. That means detecting early strength helps, but it does not guarantee anything by itself. In juniors, the initial edge has to be confirmed again and again, because this is a market where speculation accelerates both the upside and the shifts in leadership. That explains why the behavior looks chaotic. Because it is. We are not in a mature phase where everything rises in an orderly and synchronized way. We are in an early phase, where capital is starting to come in, but it is doing so in a disorganized way. Testing, taking risks, selecting. The money is already there, but it is not being distributed evenly. It is looking for convexity, looking for stories, looking for structure, while at the same time violently discarding everything that fails to respond. And that has a direct consequence: trying to follow the move without a clear framework here is dangerous. Because it is not enough for something to go up. It has to do so with structure, consistency, and the ability to withstand declines. In a market like this, simple momentum is not enough. What really matters is the quality of the move and the resilience of each company when pressure arrives. On the other side, the message is brutal. Weakness is not forgiven. The most fragile companies do not just fall a little or correct in an orderly way. They drop hard, and they do it fast. That is where capital gets destroyed. And that is probably one of the most important lessons from this study: in juniors there is not only explosive upside, there is also extreme risk in choosing the wrong names. Taken together, the data suggests this: we are not looking at a clean rally in juniors. We are looking at the beginning of a speculative phase. A phase where big winners and big losers coexist, where the market starts rewarding certain profiles while punishing others without mercy. And that is exactly how major cycles begin. First, the market turns chaotic. Then it selects. And only then does it become orderly. This is not just about gold or silver. It is about survival. You can download the full study, including the complete rankings and detailed data, at the link below. shr.pn/CeIf #Gold #Silver #MiningStocks #Juniors #Investing












