
Edwin Mabonga 🧢
3.1K posts

Edwin Mabonga 🧢
@Edwinmab1
Farmer in the deep south. everything agriculture. Husband and dad to 3 lovely kids. Photographer. If you don't enjoy it, don't do it.















BREAKING: The nitrogen trap just closed. Three locks snapped shut simultaneously. The planting window is closing behind them. And the food the world eats next year is now being decided by molecules that cannot reach the soil in time. Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertiliser vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. The Gulf supplies 49 percent of the world’s exported urea and roughly 30 percent of traded ammonia. That supply is not delayed. It is denied. The gate opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. It stays closed for molecules that feed the planet. Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. The official reason is “domestic priority.” The strategic effect is leverage. Russia earns windfall revenue from the oil price spike its ally’s war created, then removes the fertiliser that farmers need to plant through the crisis. The disease and the cure, again, from the same address. Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar. The biological calendar does not negotiate. Corn requires nitrogen at the V6 to VT growth stage or kernel set is permanently reduced. Wheat requires it at tillering and jointing or grain fill collapses. Rice requires it at transplanting or yield drops 20 to 40 percent in low-input systems. These are not economic models. They are cellular processes. The plant either receives nitrogen during the window or it does not. If it does not, no subsequent application, no price increase, no policy reversal can recover what was lost. The damage is written into the biology of the seed. The US Corn Belt window closes mid-April. European top-dressing is happening now. Indian Kharif preparation begins in May. Bangladeshi Boro rice transplanting is underway this week. Every one of these windows is closing while the three largest sources of nitrogen on Earth are simultaneously locked: Hormuz by military blockade, Russia by export decree, China by trade ban. The USDA Prospective Plantings report arrives March 31. The FAO Food Price Index publishes April 3. These will quantify what the molecules already know: the nitrogen did not arrive. The yield loss is locked in. The 5 to 10 percent global drag will concentrate where the buffers are thinnest: subsistence farms in Bangladesh, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, where a 20 percent shortfall does not mean lower profits. It means hunger. Sri Lanka banned synthetic fertiliser in 2021. Rice yields collapsed 40 percent. The government fell. In 2008, fertiliser and oil spiked simultaneously and food riots erupted across 30 countries. In 2026, the strait blocks fertiliser while Russia and China withdraw the alternatives, and the planting windows close on a planet with nowhere else to turn. The war is fought with missiles. The famine is fought with molecules. The molecules are trapped behind three locks on three continents, timed to the one calendar that cannot be paused, extended, or negotiated: the calendar written into the DNA of every seed in the soil. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…


The northern lights are out in central MN this evening!! Some faint greens and light pinks seen on camera only as the sunsets! @AuroraNotify @TamithaSkov @Vincent_Ledvina @WickyDubs2





Rural NZ is under siege: a planning system turning productive farmland into red tape hell, with mafia-style standover tactics. Farmers in Gore (and anyone building) now face this before digging a silage pit, erecting a shed, fixing a track, or dozens of routine farm jobs: resource consents assessed against Ngāi Tahu cultural values like mauri (life force), wairua (spiritual essence), whakapapa (connections between all life), and utu (restoring balance). Pay up or get denied. Consultation? Now it's mandatory paid iwi assessments to check if your earthworks harm the soil's spiritual essence. Costs explode, delays mount, investment dies. Farmers aren't anti-Māori or anti-culture—they're anti a system weaponising cultural values into revenue streams and veto power. It's not partnership when one side demands payment for approval. Gore's new Māori Cultural Values chapter turned routine consents into a district-wide paid gauntlet—no escape. How can a farmer assess the wairua of their private land? Why should they? We have private property rights in NZ! Council backed down on blanketing the entire district as a "Site of Significance to Māori" after massive backlash—but replaced it with a Māori Cultural Values chapter that achieves the same chokehold. Warning to farmers nationwide: District plans stack cultural rules atop SNAs, biodiversity overlays, hazards—creating a permission web that strangles control over your own land. Even Māori farmers pay for iwi assessments. This is a racket, not respect. At Hobson's Pledge, we fight for equal rights under the law—no ancestral vetoes, no extra approval layers. We're hunting these creeping restrictions in plans across NZ, backing farmers/communities, pushing reforms for real property rights & democratic control. But we need YOU. Councils won't stop without pressure. Your donation funds investigations, campaigns, legal fights, and a strong voice for Kiwi families who just want to farm without endless barriers. Stand with us. Rural NZ needs our roar. Farmers are furious—with your support, we'll make bureaucrats listen. hobsonspledge.nz/stand-with-far…

He started to walk away, then turned back like, “And another thing?!”





















