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My 2026 Midterm Forecast is live! The House forecast uses a composite formula to estimate margins, while the Senate forecast is based on a predictive model I created.
LINK: ellisbates.substack.com/p/2026-midterm…
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Ellis Bates
776 posts
Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Author of "The State of the Race" Substack, 17 y/o political nerd, views are my own. I also do stuff with @electioncord! Marist ‘30
San Diego, CA Beigetreten Haziran 2023
110 Folgt92 Follower
@ElliscbIV "- OH & IA gov flip blue, but senate stays red"
Literally the only way this happens is if Platner loses. So I'm guessing you're a Platner hater?
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My 2026 hot takes:
- KS & AK gov are unreasonably close
- OH & IA gov flip blue, but senate stays red
- TX-SEN is bluer than 2018
- GA-SEN votes to the left of MI-SEN
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The big issue with Wisconsin is that it’s extremely inelastic. For 3 presidential cycles in a row, the state has been decided by a margin of less than 1%. No other state has been that consistently close. It basically ignores national shifts.
Pennsylvania/Philadelphia Supremacist🇺🇸🇺🇦🇬🇱@PA_Supremacist
My Mom asked me yesterday “Is Wisconsin becoming a Lean D/Likely D state like Minnesota?” I’m skeptical and feel that’s too optimistic, but it was the most liberal swing state in 2024, these fundraising numbers are insane, and it feels like the Wisconsin GOP is just giving up
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@jwpetterchak ah I mean the OH & IA senate races stay red while the gov races flip blue
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@ElliscbIV If OH and IA flip blue, that’s a D senate.
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@ElliscbIV 3 and 4 are completely reasonable, 1 is maybe, 2 is something only some1 on 20+ pounds of narcotics would say
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@geneticmethodd agree w/ most of this besides KS & OH, Acton is outrunning Brown pretty significantly (~5%), and in KS Dems have a popular incumbent’s record to run on + a favorable environment + the state’s been trending blue year after year
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@ElliscbIV people are sleeping on peltolas downballot effects on the alaska gov but ks is a lost cause. i agree ia gov might tilt blue by the smallest margin but texas will go blue before that senate race does. i think ohio gov and senate are close enough that they'll have the same outcome
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@ATPMstealsO2 I’d say so! KS has been trending pretty blue as of late, especially in state elections, and Kelly is quite popular and has backed a replacement. Dems flipped the gov race last Trump midterm, so no reason why they can’t hold it running on Kelly’s record and Trump’s unpopularity.
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Grassroots Michigan yearns for Mallory McMorrow.
umichvoter@umichvoter
Michigan US Senate Dem Primary ACTBLUE update Year to date 2026 Mallory McMorrow: ~$1.22 million Abdul El-Sayed: ~$834,000 Haley Stevens: ~$356,000 Mallory McMorrow: ~55,000 donations Abdul El-Sayed: ~18,000 donations Haley Stevens: ~13,000 donations
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@BobaCalifornian OH and IA def should be tossups, I’d say it’s safe to make AZ blue
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Dems lost even more ground here comparing this to '25, when Sears won this district by just 7%.
R's outperformed her by a whopping 12%.
If the shift here is any indication of the kind of electorate turning out for the redistricting referendum statewide, it'd only pass by 3%.
Sam Shirazi@samshirazim
The final mail ballots were added for Virginia’s HD-98 Margin narrowed to 19% GOP win Still a GOP over performance compared to 2024 About 5% so not as dramatic as Election Night Disproportionate late mail bc of shorter early voting for special Handful of provisionals remain
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@nightlight7001 the key difference being that unlike harris, they weren’t from cali, and both finished higher than fourth place
also cali definitely isn’t meaningless, it might not predict the nominee but it’s a juggernaut when it comes to delegates.
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@ElliscbIV Biden lost Cali in 2020 primary and Hillary lost Cali in 2016 primary. That alone should tell you how meaningless Cali is in Democratic primaries.
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@optisues never said she did but fourth place in her *home state* with universal name ID isn’t a sign of strength…
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Steven’s further entrenching herself with the *establishment* in a moment of extreme anti-establishment sentiment among Dems is certainly a choice.
Is her next brilliant move to announce a campaign event with Schumer & Gillibrand?
Stephen Neukam@stephen_neukam
Scoop: Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens is picking up the endorsement of moderate Senate Dem group, ModSquad. 👀 Catherine Cortez Masto, who many think could be interested in a senate leadership bid, is the chair of ModSquad CCM sniped at the other candidates in the Michigan race, saying Stevens "puts in the work to deliver for her state when too many people are just looking for headlines." ModSquad backs around a dozen Senate Dems, including Sens. Elissa Slotkin and Gary Peters More: axios.com/2026/03/20/mic…
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Talarico psyop campaign to boost Paxton. We love to see it.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Impact Research poll | 3/12-3/17 LV US Senate Texas 2026 🟦James Talarico 43% 🟥John Cornyn 41% (incumbent) 🟨Ted Brown 7% Undecided 10% —— 🟦James Talarico 44% 🟥Ken Paxton 43% 🟨Ted Brown 5% Undecided 7% —— US Senate Texas Republican primary 2026 🟥Ken Paxton 53% 🟥John Cornyn 37% (incumbent) (Talarico internal)
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@auautumntumn 100 degrees in the afternoon & 80 degrees at night is just absurd
july is gonna be utterly miserable
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Dems *had* been gaining momentum in the Sunbelt until '24 reversed that, which is why this year is so important. Figuring out how to win TX (or at least getting closer than '18) & locking down the Sunbelt swing states is crucial.
Latino and suburban voters are the answer.
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban
Every single one of the 15 fastest-growing US major metropolitan areas is in the Sunbelt. All 15 are also in a state Trump won. Only 5 are in swing states. Dallas and Houston added an entire Wyoming's worth of people.
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@yaniversal he’d enact literal communism if it guaranteed the eradication of the GOP
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Ellis Bates retweetet
Other well-known pollsters that are actually schools (with D1 Athletics):
Marist (MAAC)
Quinnipiac (MAAC)
Please rename MAAC to the NEPC (Northeast Polling Conference)
Max@maxtmcc
those of us who recognize Siena College
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