@yieldsearcher The ECB is so dumb that they may hike into an energy supply shock. They're not serious people.
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Ednerd
32 posts
One of the many reasons global yields are exploding is that ECB and BoE target nominal inflation (vs. the Fed focuses on core ex food and fuels) which makes hikes more likely.
But as seen below, the EU economy is on verge of freezing. Trichet’s hike in 08 on $147 oil was fatal.
Dan Tsubouchi@Energy_Tidbits
"Half of Dutch fleet idle as European fishing hit by high diesel prices" "Durk van Tuinen, a spokesperson for the Dutch Fishers Union, said weekly fuel bills that ran 12,000 to 13,000 euros ($13,800-$15,000) before the war started on February 28 are now heading toward 30,000 euros, roughly equal to the total value of fish a vessel might bring at this time of the year, leaving no money to pay a crew. “Now the fuel bill is equal to the revenue, so it simply does not work,” he said." Thx @reuters Toby Sterling. #oott reuters.com/business/energ…
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Ok so IRGC was lying as usual. Jfc ppl
Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch@BabakTaghvaee1
BREAKING: An RJ85 of the Iranian Air Force, which I earlier reported flew from Tehran to Islamabad with the approval of the Israeli Air Force, carried a delegation of the Islamic regime of Iran led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The delegation met with their American counterparts in Islamabad to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Ghalibaf has always liked flying with these two RJ85s previously used by the Emir of Dubai. #OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar
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The admin has not given up on its fight on housing and rates.
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher
The mkt grossly underestimates the potential power of the GSE balance sheet. The US can either expand it to absorb the Fed’s MBS holdings (buying back the MBS they gte), or monetize its equity stake to fund new stimulus without congressional inputs. Only a q of political will
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Ednerd retweetet
This hits hard if you’re retarded
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
Alongside military bases, those financial entities that finance the US military budget are legitimate targets. US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians' blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets. We monitor your portfolios. This is your final notice.
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@TravisS42 @TankerTrackers In what way? Iran's only defense is high oil prices. By exporting oil, they are hindering their own defense by keeping the supply shock muted.
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@Emv772 @TankerTrackers This makes you and them look stupid. This is just a desperate attempt to look less useless than they really are, and it will change nothing.
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Mr. Bessent runs the Department of Treasury, which in turn runs the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). How about OFAC first blacklist the remaining 37% of the tankers that transport Iranian oil? Unsanctioned ANITA (9203253): 50 million barrels ($3bn worth) since 2020.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Bessent on Kharg Island: "We'll see if that eventually becomes a US asset"
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A few anti-regime X accounts echo the claim with near-identical short clips (one small prop plane in clouds, same angle/style). No multi-angle passenger jet footage or Flightradar24 confirmations of departures—airport shows zero commercial activity due to strikes/no-fly zone. Regime "relocation" line is their only stated reason; no mainstream or tracking sources back evacuations.
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🚨 Suspicious passenger plane movements out of Tehran are raising serious questions.
Five passenger planes departed from Mehrabad Airport today.
The regime claims they were empty and being relocated to the east, but reports suggest they may have been used to evacuate officials out of the country.
Another possibility, given Israeli and U.S. control of the airspace, is that any authorized flights could involve military or IRGC defections.
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I'm cackling. Does he not have advisors under 35?
Sen. Bernie Sanders@SenSanders
I spoke to Anthropic’s AI agent Claude about AI collecting massive amounts of personal data and how that information is being used to violate our privacy rights. What an AI agent says about the dangers of AI is shocking and should wake us up.
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@McClellanOsc I beg you to stop posting this. It makes me want to unfollow every time. This is the dumbest opinion you have.
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I have a different hypothesis. Inflation rates match the movements of global average temperatures (inverted), with a lag time of about 3 years. It was the cooling of the 60s and 70s that brought high inflation. And it was the warming of the 1980s, not Volcker, which solved it.
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher
Why the 1970s oil shocks were stagflationary? Nominal wages rose 6-9% even with high UR (6-8%) during the era. Strong unions and COLA kept wages tracking inflation, creating a vicious cycle. We do not have that kind of labor market today. Wage growth is lowest since COVID.
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I am old enough to remember my old economics lesson where central banks hike rates to cool an overheating economy.
I must have missed the part where they taught that a supply-shock driven increase in oil prices is massively stimulatory.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
TRADERS BOOST ECB RATE BETS, PRICE 59BPS OF HIKES BY YEAR-END
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@SpencerKle55479 @JavierBlas And yet the oil still flows unabated out of Yanbu and Fujaira
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Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?
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@JR_000011111 @LargoCabayero @RazorOil If you take away Iran's normal supply of 1.5, you also have to remove it from the 15 that need to be replaced.
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@LargoCabayero @RazorOil You can't just include Iran 1.5 Mbd supply, only because it keeps flowing, its not new supply, so take away 1.5 Mbd
2.5 Mbd new supply? from where? Russia +200 kbd, US shale maybe +200-300 kbd short-term. Itll take a year before more hits. Take away another 2 Mbd
-5 Mbd
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@yieldsearcher It's not really 20mbpd. Various pipelines allow for diverting away from Strait. It's an 11 mbpd shortfall. Obviously still large, but reduce for SPR, IEA and some strait traffic.
Iran: ~1.2m b/d (SoH)
UAE: ~1.8m b/d (Fujairah)
KSA: >6.0m b/d (Red Sea)
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1.5mbpd of new supply.
Falls far short of 20mbpd of shortfall from the closure of SoH, but more than enough to cover the US’ 0.5mbpd direct exposure.
The US SPR is not to solve the world’s problem, just the US.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
DOE SAYS THE 172 MILLION BARREL RELEASE WILL TAKE APPROXIMATELY 120 DAYS TO DELIVER BASED ON PLANNED DISCHARGE RATES.
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@yieldsearcher I was attempting to be sarcastic. They would agree to a ceasefire yesterday. Anyone that thinks Iran, after getting kicked in the face for a week, wouldn't call uncle is just not a serious person.
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All signs point to the war having a hard stop by the end of this month.
That is when Taiwan starts running low on fuel, and US consumers begin gearing up for Easter and spring break.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
Airports are warning travelers to prepare to spend hours in security checkpoint lines, with the partial government shutdown stretching federal security workers-wsj
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@EconBerger Sorry, I'm not your analyst. You can go watch the feed yourself. You expressed an opinion that requires 4 seconds of watching tanker tracker or something similar to disprove. If you want more robust stats, you'll just need to stare at the feed yourself.
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@Emv772 How many ships have done this? What % of normal strait traffic is it?
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“The Strait of Hormuz isn’t actually closed, ships are just turning off their transponders”
things really are grim if this is the best fiction that the copium lab can currently create
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