Siika aka "Fisu"

Evolution $EVO will pay no dividend in 2026 which paves the way for a big share buyback program 👌

$NVO is in the midst of the fastest drug launch of all time with oral Wegovy over the last 2 months. Not the fastest for $NVO. The fastest for any drug company ever. Yet, during that same time period, their stock has (*checks notes*)...experienced its sharpest decline ever...EVER! A fascinating case study is developing here over pricing in investor expectations and the extremes to which sentiment can swing. Not only has $NVO had its worst stock crash *ever* (down >40% since late January) right in the middle of the fastest drug launch of all time... ...$NVO has now round tripped its entire obesity run...as if the whole obesity craze never even happened! The stock was in the $40s on the day that injectable Wegovy launched back in 2021, now 5 years later it struggles to maintain the mid $30s. If you go back 10 years from today, the stock is up only ~30% over the last decade, getting absolutely trounced by any index you want to put it up against. All of that with the society-altering obesity craze in between. Coming back to the recent move, it's been bizarre to see investors' negative reaction to the cagrisema vs tirzepatide study reading out negative for cagrisema when...anyone who even remotely analyzed existing cagrisema data had to have known that study never had a *CHANCE* at hitting. The fact that the markets could be *that* inefficient by pricing in so much value for that cagrisema study is almost too much of a stretch for me to believe... Investors have focused on the cargisema study not meeting (apparently somehow still very bullish???) expectations while largely ignoring the oral Wegovy launch that has been breaking every expectation that they had previously set for it...Negative sentiment begets negative sentiment, sometimes directly in the face of objective reality. Like I've mentioned, pharma isn't really my specialty, but this will be an interesting case study for me to continue to learn from. It'll probably be a good one for the pharma industry at large down the road given how extreme the changes in sentiment have been. In the meantime, I am buying the Novo dip, though my pharma trades tend to be very short term largely because I use margin to conduct them. So, will the nonstop $NVO stock crash reverse soon? IDK, but owning a drug company at 5 year lows that is also in the middle of the literal fastest drug launch of all time...does seem a bit asymmetric 😅

$ROOT is the leading AI insurance company. ”As a company whose founding principles lie at the heart of AI” ”AI is not just about chatbots or RPA.”

On a GAAP basis, $LMND shows an LTM net income loss of 173.8m. But the more important question is: how much cash did $LMND actually burn? If I adjust for non cash and timing distortions: -Add back 60.1m in SBC, dilutive yes, but it does not drain the 1.06b balance sheet. -Add back 121.9m in GC synthetic agent spend, which GAAP forces them to expense immediately but not the LTV/CAC. Suddenly, the picture flips. Underlying cash flow: +8.2m. Cash tells the truth. 🍋

"Isn't $LMND just another insurtech?" This chart can lay that argument to rest. Customers per employee, 2020–2025: $LMND vs. $ROOT vs. 7 major incumbents. $ROOT is the perfect test case. Same era. Same "insurtech" label. Same direct-to-consumer P&C model. Public company with clean data. $ROOT at 457 customers per employee. GEICO at 568. Progressive at 514. Root IS the incumbent band. Why? $ROOT innovation was telematics — better pricing through driving data. That helped them reach profitability. But it didn't change how many humans they need to operate. Root hired 341 people last year to add 73K policies. $LMND hired 47 to add 570K. That's not a difference of degree. It's a difference of kind. $LMND didn't just digitize the front end. AI Maya underwrites. AI Jim handles claims. The marginal customer costs almost nothing to serve. $ROOT used tech to price better. $LMND used AI to run the company. That's why one curve compounds and the other flatlines. This also kills the bear argument that competitors will "just copy $LMND playbook." $ROOT has been trying for 9 years. Backed by $1.2B+ in funding. Public since 2020. Building technology from scratch with no legacy constraints. And they still ended up in the incumbent band. If a well-funded, tech-native insurtech with zero legacy baggage can't replicate this efficiency curve, what makes anyone think State Farm or Allstate will? $LMND AI-first architecture isn't a feature. It's a compound advantage that gets harder to replicate every quarter — because every new customer, claim, and interaction feeds the models that make the next one cheaper to serve. The moat isn’t JUST the AI operating system running the company. It’s 3 million customers (and growing) training the AI.