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It took me 10 years of philosophy, politics, work, and study to decide; Good Farming is the only thing that will save us.
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Good Farming with Adam Durey
4.6K posts
Good Farming with Adam Durey
@GoodFarmingAdam
Regenerative, Organic, Bio-Dynamic, Syntropic - Its all Good Farming.
Australia Beigetreten Ekim 2021
249 Folgt333 Follower
Its both more moral and objectively has greater life-value.
1 blue vote is worth about 33'000 lives saved, blue is objectively the correct answer.
Assume 7 billion people are voting.
If you vote Red, you definitely live. So Red has a personal survival value of 1 life.
If you vote Blue, you might die if Red wins. But your Blue vote also helps create the only outcome where everyone lives.
The key point is this:
Most individual votes do nothing. But if the world is close to 50/50, one Blue vote can be worth billions of lives.
For 7 billion people, a “near-threshold” vote is rare — roughly:
1 chance in 105,000
But when that rare threshold happens, the difference is enormous.
If Red barely wins:
50.01% Red live
49.99% Blue die
At global scale, that means roughly:
3.5 billion people die
But if one more Blue vote pushes Blue into the majority:
0 people die
So the rough expected value is:
3.5 billion lives saved × 1/105,000 chance
That gives:
3,500,000,000 ÷ 105,000 ≈ 33,333 lives
Then you subtract the individual risk of voting Blue — about half a life on average — but that barely changes the result:
33,333 − 0.5 ≈ 33,332.5
So the simple statement is:
A Red vote gives you 1 guaranteed life. But compared with voting Blue, a Red vote costs the group about 33,000 expected lives at a 7-billion-person scale, assuming the world is roughly split 50/50.
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Blue is not “more moral”
It is not moral to deliberately put yourself in harm’s way and count on others to come save you.
Joe Reeve - 🇬🇧/acc@isnit0
Guys blue is obviously more moral. Sure, red is logical. But blue is more moral. Anyone who thinks in 2nd order effects should advocate for blue. Just like the people who created our high trust societies would. Red voters destroy our society.
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You were wrong on the maths.
1 blue vote is worth about 33'000 lives saved, blue is objectively the correct answer.
Assume 7 billion people are voting.
If you vote Red, you definitely live. So Red has a personal survival value of 1 life.
If you vote Blue, you might die if Red wins. But your Blue vote also helps create the only outcome where everyone lives.
The key point is this:
Most individual votes do nothing. But if the world is close to 50/50, one Blue vote can be worth billions of lives.
For 7 billion people, a “near-threshold” vote is rare — roughly:
1 chance in 105,000
But when that rare threshold happens, the difference is enormous.
If Red barely wins:
50.01% Red live
49.99% Blue die
At global scale, that means roughly:
3.5 billion people die
But if one more Blue vote pushes Blue into the majority:
0 people die
So the rough expected value is:
3.5 billion lives saved × 1/105,000 chance
That gives:
3,500,000,000 ÷ 105,000 ≈ 33,333 lives
Then you subtract the individual risk of voting Blue — about half a life on average — but that barely changes the result:
33,333 − 0.5 ≈ 33,332.5
So the simple statement is:
A Red vote gives you 1 guaranteed life. But compared with voting Blue, a Red vote costs the group about 33,000 expected lives at a 7-billion-person scale, assuming the world is roughly split 50/50.
English
@GoodFarmingAdam @shlevy Yup. I'm not going to run into a burning building to see if anyone might be there, either--especially if my chance of surviving is less than 1 in 100,000.
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You can’t equate pressing the red button with a prediction about the outcome of the poll. Red button pressers don’t “lose” if they aren’t the majority. They aren’t “proven wrong” if there are a lot of blues.
And yeah in the real world no way blue reaches 50%
Peter Hague@peterrhague
Typical red button argument is: “I have a higher IQ than people who correctly anticipated the outcome of the poll and therefore maximised utility in that context, because I assert in a real test that can never be done the poll would go the other way!” Behavioural string theory.
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Because you objectively voted for thousands of people to die.
1 blue vote is worth about 33'000 lives saved, blue is objectively the correct answer.
Assume 7 billion people are voting.
If you vote Red, you definitely live. So Red has a personal survival value of 1 life.
If you vote Blue, you might die if Red wins. But your Blue vote also helps create the only outcome where everyone lives.
The key point is this:
Most individual votes do nothing. But if the world is close to 50/50, one Blue vote can be worth billions of lives.
For 7 billion people, a “near-threshold” vote is rare — roughly:
1 chance in 105,000
But when that rare threshold happens, the difference is enormous.
If Red barely wins:
50.01% Red live
49.99% Blue die
At global scale, that means roughly:
3.5 billion people die
But if one more Blue vote pushes Blue into the majority:
0 people die
So the rough expected value is:
3.5 billion lives saved × 1/105,000 chance
That gives:
3,500,000,000 ÷ 105,000 ≈ 33,333 lives
Then you subtract the individual risk of voting Blue — about half a life on average — but that barely changes the result:
33,333 − 0.5 ≈ 33,332.5
So the simple statement is:
A Red vote gives you 1 guaranteed life. But compared with voting Blue, a Red vote costs the group about 33,000 expected lives at a 7-billion-person scale, assuming the world is roughly split 50/50.
English
Why do people treat this as some kind of a dunk?
If I vote red, and then blue wins, why should I be coping about anything? I don't give a shit. Buttons are pressed, everyone lives, cool. I'm not making a prescription of "everyone should press red", I'm just choosing for myself.
Danielle Fong 🔆@DanielleFong
get game theory mogged once again, game theory advocates. everybody lives, and now you're in copeaganda about how you're not mean and wrong
English
1 blue vote is worth about 33'000 lives saved, blue is objectively the correct answer.
Assume 7 billion people are voting.
If you vote Red, you definitely live. So Red has a personal survival value of 1 life.
If you vote Blue, you might die if Red wins. But your Blue vote also helps create the only outcome where everyone lives.
The key point is this:
Most individual votes do nothing. But if the world is close to 50/50, one Blue vote can be worth billions of lives.
For 7 billion people, a “near-threshold” vote is rare — roughly:
1 chance in 105,000
But when that rare threshold happens, the difference is enormous.
If Red barely wins:
50.01% Red live
49.99% Blue die
At global scale, that means roughly:
3.5 billion people die
But if one more Blue vote pushes Blue into the majority:
0 people die
So the rough expected value is:
3.5 billion lives saved × 1/105,000 chance
That gives:
3,500,000,000 ÷ 105,000 ≈ 33,333 lives
Then you subtract the individual risk of voting Blue — about half a life on average — but that barely changes the result:
33,333 − 0.5 ≈ 33,332.5
So the simple statement is:
A Red vote gives you 1 guaranteed life. But compared with voting Blue, a Red vote costs the group about 33,000 expected lives at a 7-billion-person scale, assuming the world is roughly split 50/50.
English
I’d go further and say that everyone who says they would pick blue in an online survey would absolutely pick red if they actually found themselves in the situation and 100% believed they had a chance of dying if they picked blue.
Ari Paul ⛓️@AriDavidPaul
As a game theory question, it’s boring and easy. As a political question, it’s fascinating and reveals a great deal about why democracies struggle. Superficially, blue looks like the collectivist, selfless, moral answer. And as you’d expect, plenty of people not only assumed that to be true, but moralized aggressively at those who understand that’s not factually true. Anyone who picks red is guaranteed to live, including if everyone does it. It’s objectively the better and more moral choice for most and to recommend to others. Blue is a kind of stochastic suicide button.
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@WootReturns @OctoAbbi Under a random 50/50 distribution of possible votes, one Blue vote has an expected collective survival advantage of roughly 33,000 lives over one Red vote, even though Red guarantees the individual voter survives.
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@GoodFarmingAdam @OctoAbbi Yes. Your stats are correct!
Red is still not a kill button.
And id still vote red.
You want to play Russian Roulette? Go right ahead.
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It wins because there's no risk to picking it on a Twitter poll smartypants
Peter Hague@peterrhague
Amazing how lots of self appointed game theory experts confidently asserting that blue is the stupid choice. But every time this poll is run blue wins. Not only is the “game theory” answer predicting the wrong outcome, its explanatory power is based on it being able to predict the right answer. So it’s doubly wrong.
English
Yeah that was a joke.
Hey I did the math on the red/blue thing.
Under a random 50/50 distribution of possible votes, one Blue vote has an expected collective survival advantage of roughly 33,000 lives over one Red vote, even though Red guarantees the individual voter survives.
So if voting is effectively random, the equivalent risk of you selecting red is 33'000 lives globally.
English
@GoodFarmingAdam I don’t think collectivism means what you think it means
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‘Press blue, and you gamble your life for nothing but a momentary feeling of moral superiority’…feels like the societal traps we have found ourselves in, humans being humans
Gurwinder@G_S_Bhogal
@waitbutwhy Press red, and you guarantee your survival while not affecting the survival of anyone else (since 1 button press won’t meaningfully impact the outcome of 8 billion button presses). Press blue, and you gamble your life for nothing but a momentary feeling of moral superiority.
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@0xfdf Under a random 50/50 distribution of possible votes, one Blue vote has an expected collective survival advantage of roughly 33,000 lives over one Red vote, even though Red guarantees the individual voter survives.
English
@0xfdf 100% Red = 0% Die
100% Blue = 0% Die
50.01% Blue = 0% Die
50.01% Red = 49.99% Die
A blue vote is more likely to save more people more of the time.
English
Game theory is fun, but there is actually a neat deontological basis for both choices, ethically. The "everyone survives" cases are 1) everyone presses red, 2) a majority press blue. Since "everyone presses blue" contains 2, both choices survive Kant's categorical imperative.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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Hey i did the maths on the life preserving value of each button and your so deeply wrong its disturbing, the only ball you have in your court is pure self-preservation.
Under a random 50/50 distribution of possible votes, one Blue vote has an expected collective survival advantage of roughly 33,000 lives over one Red vote, even though Red guarantees the individual voter survives.
English
Every single one of these people would press red. The only thing viral about this question is that every 6 months the same people reup their attempt to convince you into the gas chamber theyre not gonna go in.
Slazac 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇹🇼🌐@TrueSlazac
Every time this poll goes viral, “blue” starts winning and it angers a lot of people who desperately want to see half of the human population dead to be correct in an argument
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@Hollyjeeny Im not collecting anything.
Yeah I have faith in christ, while you have faith in some generally net positive outcome for you personally?
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@GoodFarmingAdam You are conflating what I mean as faith to what you mean as faith, it’s because you are a collectivist…I’m not
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@HistoryBoomer Nah nah nah you already pressed red and put the orphanage in the blender man, its over
GIF
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Fine, people have made some good cases for why you should press the blue button (what about children pressing blue by mistake, they deserve to live, etc), and so now I'm leaning blue, but more importantly, I think we should ban everyone who makes buttons.
Carl@HistoryBoomer
I think people are choosing "blue" because then they can feel noble, but in the real world, with their life on the line, they'd press red. I'd certainly press red! Just have the whole world press red, and nobody dies!
English
@Hollyjeeny Then why did you need the self-preserving kill blues button if you are guided by faith?
English
@GoodFarmingAdam I have faith, I’m not a Christian…those are not mutually exclusive
English
@breakingbaht @ArchGotta Can you be sure? Lucky the blues won man because you hit the kill people button.
THANKFULLY faith always wins, even with self-perserving, greedy, proud, and cowardice people like Eric; the faithful always bring the greater balance.
Don't be like Eric, vote to save humanity.
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@GoodFarmingAdam @ArchGotta You didnt vote for anything. You press buttons on a keyboard and got mad online.
Youll be fine.
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@Hollyjeeny I hope you come around to faith, its going to take all of us to make a better world
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Self-preservation isn’t the opposite of meaning. You can’t build anything, morality, love, or otherwise, if you’ve removed yourself from the equation…
Does a browbeating moral superiority, ‘find Jesus’ approach usually work for you? I can’t imagine this usually works for you…or as an advertisement for Christianity, mainly because it’s irritating and reductive
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@breakingbaht @ArchGotta Am I? 😢
But i voted blue to make sure I saved your family Eric and youre still trying to kill me 😔
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@ArchGotta @GoodFarmingAdam I get that youre mad for losing, but that's okay. Youre gonna be fine.
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@breakingbaht @ArchGotta You might have early onset dementia dude I think youre hallucinating
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@GoodFarmingAdam @ArchGotta Uh oh, so youre telling me you still wouldnt join red if it was all adults?
Weird. So you were just evading? Kind of a bitch move, man. Not gonna lie.
English
Because the richest and most beautiful life comes from finding god and devoting yourself to the kingdom of heaven.
Jesus was willing to die to show unwavering conviction that morality and faith were the highest of all virtues.
Self-preservation and materialism are dead-ends, they dont lead to fulfilment and true love.
Like, good job, you did the 'rational thing' and made sure you survived at any cost. What for?
English
@breakingbaht @ArchGotta Do you have fluid in your head bro?
Your not even reading what were saying now.
English
@ArchGotta @GoodFarmingAdam Again, good to have you on the red side now.
English
These people do not realize what 50% of the world means. Barely alive. They are not sentient and still smarter than someone who picks blue.
“I want to pick red”
“But if you pick red people will die”
“Why”
“Because they picked blue”
“If I pick blue will I die?”
“Not if half the world picks it with you”
“Did they all pick blue yet?”
“I don’t know”
“So if I pick blue I will die?”
“Only if half the world picks red”
“Has half the world picked blue yet?”
“No”
“So if I pick blue I will die?”
“Not exactly”
“But if I pick right now I die?”
“It’s complicated”
“I want to pick red”
English
The literal only result of picking blue is that you increase your own chance of death from 0% to not 0%. There are only 2 reasons to pick blue: you are stupid or you are suicidal. There is only one reason to try to convince others to pick blue: you want them to die. If you don’t understand this I actually think you are not a human being
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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Its literally only you hyperrational terminally online types that vote red, everybody else lives in reality and knows their family members and loved ones will vote blue.
Children vote blue, christans, Muslims and Buddhists vote blue, Hindus that believe in karma vote blue.
Its just you atheistic, self-serving, anti-social, isolated lunatics that hit the kill button.
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