@KV178900 Lets wait and see what happens to the 450 kg. If JCPOA was not a success regarding the nuclear stockpile, will the ongoing war end up being one? So far, the jury is out.
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Wolfgang Ischinger
11.9K posts
Wolfgang Ischinger
@ischinger
Leading @MunSecConf since 2008; former State Secretary and Ambassador US and UK; Prof U of Tübingen and Hertie School Berlin. Co-Founder Agora Strategy Group AG
Berlin/Munich Beigetreten Mart 2012
756 Folgt67.6K Follower
@ischinger JCPOA was a fantastic failure, the perfect path to the nuke for the mullahs.
We Iranians rejected it massively b/c it threw money at the regime they used to brutally oppress Iranians
EU is weak and pathetic. "Not our war".
Sit down and be quiet
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Ok: Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power was the objective of our joint JCPOA mission, proudly led by the US, and later killed by the US. Could we , at a minimum, please reestablish joint planning and joint action before requesting “maximum partner contributions”?
Secretary Marco Rubio@SecRubio
Our mission is clear. Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. In my meeting with the G7 foreign ministers, I reiterated that we must meet this moment with maximum partner contributions.
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@TobiasBarniske @polenz_r Ok. The US calls us partners, however
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@KeatonS400 @joshua_landis Switzerland is of course not a Nato member. How ignorant!
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❝Switzerland ordered some Tomahawks years ago. Now the US said they can't deliver them.
So Switzerland said then we won't pay.
The US have now seized the funds we paid for the F-35s (which we probably won't get as well) instead.❞
"Trust in the USA is suffering"
The development has been poorly received in parliament. "It's infuriating when we halt payments and then the money is simply diverted,"
srf.ch/news/schweiz/z… via @srfnews
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Ischinger: Europ Fragmentierung bei Weltraum vermeiden! - goo.gl/alerts/LDsuTS #GoogleAlerts
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Natürlich ist das Völkerrecht zu achten, muss Verletzungen entgegengetreten werden. Die Kernfrage ist aber wie immer in der Politik: was tun?? Was tun wir, um Kriege und Konflikte zu verhindern oder zu beenden? Oder geben wir uns mit dem Jammern von der Seitenlinie zufrieden?
Martin Sauer@Martin_Sauer
Poland-vibes. #Nawrocki
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nbcnews.com/politics/white…
DTJ wird vor allem über die Erfolge der US-Streitkräfte unterrichtet. Vielleicht sollte jemand im Weißen Haus das kurze Kapitel über Nachrichten im Kriege bei Clausewitz lesen. Dann wüsste man, dass das zu Fehlentscheidungen führt.
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Ischinger auf dem Munich Space Summit: „Europa darf im Weltraum nicht die Fehler der ... - goo.gl/alerts/fyeh8M #GoogleAlerts
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German-Polish relations are burdened by a lack of trust. It’s worth starting to address this problem. No, not everyone will like it, but political leaders are meant to lead… it’s worth remembering that.
My take on the issue:
"The Polish-German relationship sits at the center of Europe’s security - and at the edge of its fault lines. German rearmament is indispensable, but rearmament without political anchoring may eventually collide with the unfinished business of World War II. The choice before Berlin is stark: let its growing power rest on legal arguments and fragile trust or convert its historical debt into concrete investments in Poland’s defense and NATO’s eastern flank. Only the second path turns memory from a liability into a strategic asset." CC: @ischinger @LianaFix @ClaudMajor @ulrichspeck @HRadziejowska @ZalewskiPawel @RauZbigniew @jgotkowska @pawelkowalpl @RKupiecki
War on the Rocks@WarOnTheRocks
Germany is rebuilding its military and seeking a larger role in European security. But an unfinished World War II reckoning still complicates trust with Poland. ow.ly/JHOO30sUxeu
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@rumeliobserver @JaneMayerNYer @gideonrachman @amanpour @JamesSurowiecki The key point and the main difference is that then, we had an established contact group that developed and executed policy together. I was the German chief negotiator then. today, allies learn from the Internet about decisions taken by their US partner. Not a promising method.
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The (Anthony) Lake era:
@JaneMayerNYer @gideonrachman @amanpour @JamesSurowiecki
The US and its allies won two wars, 1995 in Bosnia and 1999 in Kosovo.
These were short, with clear goals, and were followed by serious robust efforts of peace building based on clear values.
These interventions transformed a whole region that had seen four wars in the 1990s and has been at democratic peace (!) for a quarter century now.
And then the US forgot all lessons.
🧵
@RoryStewartUK
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said, “Can the Strait of Hormuz be opened? You need to deploy two American divisions there and prepare to stay for months. That’s how the start of the war in Vietnam looked, the start of the war in Iraq, and the same in Afghanistan. It succeeds at first. By the way, all wars, including this new chapter of ours, one must know: an initiated war starts with a brilliant achievement and impressive damage. Then comes the stage of treading water, which I believe we have entered. And if you don't know how to get out of it and cut it short in time, it ends in negotiations under conditions inferior to what existed before it all started, or in defeat. And America hasn't won a single war. It won almost every battle, but it hasn't won a single war in the last 60 years. All of this needs to be considered, and I very much hope I am wrong.”
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@lauragoldenb I beg to differ. Nato deterrence posture has absolutely not failed.
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Deterrence failed across the board in the last ~3 years or so. And not only with regards to Russia.
The only deterrence that still holds (by a thread) is the nuclear deterrence. Even that it's on the last legs.
Wolfgang Ischinger@ischinger
@ulrichspeck We would risk a war? I thought our strategy was to deter Russia from risking a war.
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Deterring nuclear war requires credible MAD. Simply threatening to go to war is not sufficient.
Sergey Koloskov@SergKoloskov
@ulrichspeck @ischinger Yes, defence plan cannot be a deterrent. Plan (and means) to wipe out Moscow - can.
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@FabiManske1999 Es gibt auch keine Belege für die Annahme , die Sie mir unterstellen.
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@ischinger Nun, aber was bringt Sie zu der Annahme, dass Trump uns mehr als einen Tag dankbar sein wird, geschweige denn, uns in der Ukraine helfen wird, wenn wir was schicken würden? Dafür gibt es im letzten Jahr gar keine Belege
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@ischinger und diverse deutsche Journalisten wollen es bis heute nicht verstehen🥲🥲
Georg ‘Maverick’ Löfflmann@gloefflmann
Dang it, who woulda thought.
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I met Robert Mueller a few days after 9/11 ( I had just arrived as the new German Ambassador). I have been a fan of this impeccable public servant ever since. A role model. RIP.
Lars Christensen@MaMoMVPY
I grew up loving and admiring the US. It was to me always a shining city on the hill. It was also a country with people like Robert Mueller who where larger than life. And now? A country that has lost all of it's shine and style. A banana republic. Dear Americans why did you allow this to happen?
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Überraschende Top-Personalie für die Koalitionsgespräche in BaWü: Der Ex-Innenstaatssekretär und ehemalige BDI-Hauptgeschäftsführer Markus Kerber (62) geht ins Sondierungsteam von @HagelManuel Kerber gilt als kluger Stratege, beriet auch CDU-Chef Friedrich Merz im Adenauer-Haus, scheiterte jedoch an dessen Beratungsresistenz und verließ die Parteizentrale. @niusde_
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@ulrichspeck We would risk a war? I thought our strategy was to deter Russia from risking a war.
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The key fact about European security is that neither the UK, nor France, nor Germany would risk a war with Russia without the US going first and leading.
That hasn't changed.
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Wolfgang Ischinger retweetet
This is an extraordinary piece of writing. I started reading it and couldn’t stop, and neither should you. @Liz_Cheney @KerryKennedyRFK @mikebarnicle @kathleenparker @AdamKinzinger @gtconway3d @NormOrnstein @JohnJHarwood @BeschlossDC @SykesCharlie @ImprovAmbassadr @ccwhip
Gandalv@Microinteracti1
Robert Mueller died last night. He was 81 years old. He had a wife who loved him for sixty years. He had two daughters, one of whom he met for the first time in Hawaii, in 1969, on a few hours of military leave, before he got back on the plane and returned to Vietnam. He had grandchildren. He had a faith he practiced quietly, without performance. He had, in the way of men who have seen real things and survived them, a quality that is increasingly rare and increasingly mocked in the country he spent his life serving. He had integrity. And tonight the President of the United States said good! I have been sitting with that word for hours now. Good. One syllable. The thing you say when the coffee is hot or the traffic is moving. The thing a man who has never had to bury anyone, never had to sit in the specific silence of a room where someone is newly absent, reaches for when he wants the world to know he is satisfied. Good. The daughters are crying and the wife is alone in the house and good. I want to speak directly to the Americans reading this. Not the political Americans. Just the human ones. The ones who have lost a father. The ones who know what it is to be in that first hour, when you keep forgetting and then remembering again, when ordinary objects become unbearable, when the world outside the window seems obscene in its indifference. I want to ask you, simply, to hold that feeling for a moment, and then to understand that the man you elected looked at it and typed a single word. Good. This is not a country having a bad day. I need you to understand that. Countries have bad days. Elections go wrong. Leaders disappoint. Institutions bend. But there is a different thing, a rarer and more terrible thing, that happens when the moral center of a place simply gives way. Not dramatically. Not with a single catastrophic event. But quietly, in increments, until one evening a president celebrates the death of an old man whose family is still warm with grief, and enough people find it acceptable that it becomes the weather. Just the weather. That is what is happening. That is what has happened. The world knows. From Tokyo to Oslo, from London to Buenos Aires, people are not angry at America tonight. Anger would mean there was still something to fight for, some remaining faith to be betrayed. What I see, in the reactions from everywhere that is not here, is something older and sadder than anger. It is the look people get when they have waited a long time for someone they love to find their way back, and have finally understood that they are not coming. America is being grieved. Past tense, almost. The idea of it. The thing it represented to people who had nothing else to believe in, who came here with everything they owned in a single bag because they had heard, somehow, across an ocean, that this was the place where decency was written into the walls. That idea is not resting. It is not suspended. It is being buried, in real time, with 7,450 likes before dinner. And the church said nothing. Seventy million people have decided that this man, this specific man who has cheated everyone he has ever made a promise to, who has mocked the disabled and the dead and the grieving, who celebrated tonight while a family wept, is an instrument of God. The pastors who made that bargain did not just trade away their credibility. They traded away the thing that made them worth listening to in the first place. The cross they carry now is a costume. The faith they preach is a loyalty oath with scripture attached. When the history of American Christianity is written, this will be the chapter they skip at seminary. Now I want to talk about the men who stand next to him. Because this is the part that actually breaks my heart. JD Vance is not a bad man. I have to say that, because it is true, and because the truth matters even now, especially now. Marco Rubio is not a bad man. Lindsey Graham is not a bad man. They are idiots, but not bad, as in BAD! These are men with mothers who raised them and children who love them and friends who remember who they were before all of this. They are not monsters. Monsters are simple. Monsters do not cost you anything emotionally because there is nothing in them to mourn. These men are something more painful than monsters. They are men who knew better, and know better still, and will get up tomorrow and do it again. Every small compromise they made had a reason. Every moment they looked the other way had a justification that sounded, at the time, almost reasonable. And now they have arrived here, at a place where a president celebrates the death of an old man and they will find a way, on television, to say nothing that means anything, and they will go home to houses where children who carry their name are waiting, and they will say goodnight, and they will say nothing. Their oldest friends are watching. The ones who knew Rubio when he still believed in something. Who knew Graham when he said, out loud, on the record, that this exact man would destroy the Republican Party and deserve it. Who sat next to Vance and thought here is someone worth knowing. Those friends are not angry tonight. They moved through anger a long time ago. What they feel now is the quiet, irrecoverable sadness of watching someone disappear while still being present. Of watching a person they loved choose, again and again, to become less. That is what cowardice costs. Not the coward. The people who loved him. And in the comments tonight, the followers celebrate. People who ten years ago brought casseroles to grieving neighbours. Who stood in the rain at gravesides and meant the words they said. Who told their children that we do not speak ill of the dead because the dead were someone's beloved. Those people are tonight typing gleeful things about a man whose daughters are not yet done crying. And they feel clean doing it. Righteous. Because somewhere along the way the thing they were given in exchange for their decency was the feeling of belonging to something, and that feeling is very hard to give up even when you can no longer remember what you gave for it. When Trump is gone, they will still be here. Standing in the silence where the noise used to be. Without the permission the crowd gave them. Without the pastor who told them their cruelty was holy. They will be alone with what they said and what they cheered and what they chose to become, and there will be no one left to tell them it was righteous. That morning is coming. Robert Mueller flew across the Pacific on military leave to hold his newborn daughter for a few hours before returning to the war. He came home. He buried his dead with honour. He served presidents of both parties because he understood that the institution was larger than any one man. He told his grandchildren that a lie is the worst thing a person can do, that a reputation once lost cannot be recovered, and he lived that, every day, in the quiet and unglamorous way of people who actually believe what they say. He was the kind of American the world used to point to when it needed to believe the story was true. He died last night. His wife is alone in their house in Georgetown. His daughters are learning what the world is without him in it. And somewhere in the particular hush that falls over a family in the first hours of loss, the most powerful man and the biggest loser on earth sent a message to say he was glad. The world that loved what America was supposed to be is grieving tonight. Not for Robert Mueller only. For the country that produced him and then became this. For the distance between what was promised and what was delivered. For the suspicion, growing quieter and more certain with each passing month, that the America people believed in was always partly a story, and the story is over now, and there is nothing yet to replace it. That is all it needed to be. A man died. His family is broken open with grief. That is all it needed to be. Instead the President said good. And the country that once stood for something looked away 🇺🇸 Gandalv / @Microinteracti1
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Moskau versorgt die Mullahs mit Zieldaten gegen die USA, kriegt trotzdem Lockerungen der Sanktionen für Öl und würde aufhören, den Mullahs Zieldaten zu geben, wenn Trump der Ukraine keine Aufklärungsergebnisse mehr gibt. Witkoffs Russlands-Verhandlungen sind nur peinlich.
POLITICOEurope@POLITICOEurope
Moscow proposed a quid pro quo to the US under which the Kremlin would stop sharing intelligence information with Iran - such as the precise coordinates of US military assets in the Middle East - if the US ceased supplying Ukraine with intel about Russia. politico.eu/article/putin-…
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