Marc Rubinstein

@JaneCazneau If you follow me back I can DM. Thanks (and super work by the way).

@MarcRuby Yeah I'm not gonna drop it publicly but DM away if you're curious. Hint: there are about 3 major (call it $10bn+ in credits back leverage risk on) banks in the world with the solve for it in their docs. Two its clean. One it's messy but I think they get there in the end.

Private credit funds will be very reluctant to roll over software loans when they mature. The closed-end funds can't refi any loans right now given redemptions. Since many loans were taken to pay dividends to sponsors, how will they repay maturing loans? Will sponsors put new $ into the companies? many are past investment period. Bring in new equity? that will be tough and pricey. Refi with a mezz lender? will be at much higher rate. Walk away? Huge loss and hit to reported marks. In every situation, the equity is worth less even if business performance hasn't changed.

@JaneCazneau And the Easter egg?

@MarcRuby Claude is pretty good at redlining docs from Edgar ;) DM me if you want a specific link I guess. It's all out there

@JaneCazneau Hi Jane -- what's the source for the back leverage filings you posted?

@chuck_curious @DruckandTuck @johnarnold Old Jane: my orbital weapons burner New Jane: my structured private credit burner I guess AMA new followers. The water is warm

Another example of the Canadian Paradox cc/ @dsquareddigest

@John_Stepek I think 2008 is overused as an analogy, but NDFI loans are the vector to watch. Massive growth over past 10 years, leaving banks with over $1tr loans to non-bank financial institutions.

Private credit is clearly under some stress. What I'm thus far struggling to see (only at the early stages of digging in, though) is how this morphs into anything systemic/2008-ish. Theories welcome

That’s four stock prices he’ll be managing. Almost as many as he has in the portfolio.

@_davidlindhagen @HatfieldCapital Yes please!

@HatfieldCapital Yeah I can share

Is this letter out there anywhere?

Here’s @marcruby’s debut Alphaville post, on the obvious arbitrage between disclosure-free “research” on social media and the massive burdens faced by traditional analysts. Hope it’s the first of many Rubyposts! ft.com/content/04b57c…

The broker note moved markets. Now the Substack does. Same impact, fewer regs.

As traders say: "The market is always right"

@jeuasommenulle after the sale of $400m of loans at 99.8% of par value...

Wow- no one saw that one coming Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors

TOMORROW AT 11AM ET🚨🎙️ @MarcRuby and @michaelbatnick dig into the rapid rise of secondaries: why private assets are staying private for longer, how liquidity is being engineered rather than waited for, and what this shift means for valuations, incentives, and risk. They explore who wins, who loses, and whether secondaries are making private markets more efficient — or just more complex.👇🔥 Click me🎦youtube.com/live/N6P4tgIJh…

@The_Analyst_Lab Did a trip out there last year. V interesting what's going on. netinterest.co/p/an-athenian-…

Anyone looking at Greek banks? They feel a bit like Spanish/Irish banks five years ago, maybe better? You’ve got a pretty bank-friendly government and a strong fiscal backdrop (only EU country w/ surplus for next 2-3 years?), very lean cost bases (cost/income at low 30s), and a long runway for lending as EU funds are still barely deployed. Plus, gov is fairly supportive of cross-border m&a. Average deposits are only around €5k, which keeps betas low but also leaves a lot of room for catch-up in asset management and bancassurance. As loan-to-deposit ratios normalize, NII should grow with volumes, while fees can run double-digit for a few years. You’re not getting the easy 0.3–0.4x book rerating anymore, but with c.10% TNAV growth and 6–7% shareholder yield you can still make mid-teens returns without any rerating, main risk is just the macro/unemployment. @blondesnmoney @dirtcheapbanks @jeuasommenulle

@Birdyword Reminds me of when a senior MD at London investment bank where I worked stood up at a town hall to inform CEO that his local Tesco was yet to accept USD as currency.

The Fed needs to wake up to its unstated but most importan mandate: protecting people with dollar-denoninated salaries but long-term liabilities denominated in sterling.

@JSiegel88 @iimag Thank you!

@MarcRuby @iimag Well deserved -- you're really among the top 1% among those able to home in on important topics and explain them well !

"Rubinstein is essential reading for finance geeks." Nice profile on @iimag institutionalinvestor.com/article/marc-r…

There’s a long way to go before wagers on events can rival markets that allocate capital, writes @MarcRuby (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

👇

Founder of alternative asset firm Blue Owl reckons fears of ruptures in private credit are "like the Mandela effect of finance... just common population collective misimpression of what's going on." To explore the issue further, I'm hosting a webinar with Sayonton Roy of Citigroup.

Almost five years after the GameStop frenzy, retail traders are making their presence felt more widely in US markets, writes @MarcRuby (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…