Middle East OSINT

@tkim123 @citrinowicz @EnergyPeddler Yes, he is addressing their *will* to continue the fight, but not addressing their ability to sustain the fight.

@citrinowicz @EnergyPeddler Danny - You've made the most accurate predictions. So I'm curious what you think will happen if the Regime has no revenues from exports of oil & LPG due to blockade or bombings? In 1, 3, 6, 12 months.

I don’t know what has been presented in the White House, but this is the adversary status I would present, with one important Takeaway - At this stage, the most important requirement for U.S. policy is strategic realism about what the use of force can still achieve against Iran. 1. Iran’s leadership is not interested in prolonging the war, but it believes it holds an advantage in a “pain tolerance” competition vis-à-vis the United States and the international community. 2. Threats of force are unlikely to produce meaningful concessions in negotiations. Iran is expected to hold firmly to the red lines it has maintained from the outset. 3. Maritime pressure will not compel Iranian capitulation. Absent an agreement, it is more likely to lead to direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Interdictions of Iranian shipping may accelerate escalation, but not surrender. 4. The current Iranian leadership will not give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, support for its regional network of proxies, or its strategic influence over the Strait of Hormuz. 5. Limited strikes will not alter this trajectory. Tehran is not easily swayed by signaling. A broader campaign against Iran’s civilian infrastructure could severely damage its economy, but would almost certainly trigger wide-scale retaliation, particularly against energy infrastructure across the Gulf. 6. Without regime change, which would require a dramatic U.S. investment in time, resources, and political will, these core dynamics are unlikely to shift. 7. Decision-making in Iran is becoming more fragmented and hardline, increasingly shaped by the IRGC. This makes coherent compromise more difficult than in the past. 8. What Iran did not concede before or during the conflict, it is even less likely to concede now, regardless of military pressure or blockade measures. 9. In the absence of a deal, escalation is not a risk, it is the default trajectory. Iran is already preparing for it, including efforts to rebuild and reinforce its missile capabilities. 10. To date, even successful operational achievements have not meaningfully changed Iran’s strategic calculus. Paradoxically, the campaign has weakened Iran economically, but strengthened the regime internally, especially among the regime supporters. +1 The administration seems to have two main options: a framework agreement broadly resembling the previous nuclear deal, Or a wider escalation would impose massive economic costs on Iran, but rather than restrain it, it could drive a significant expansion of its escalatory actions. #IranWar‌

@josh_wingrove @grok In layman's terms, how much power can be generated from the LNG transported by a typical tanker vessel?

(Bloomberg) -- Several liquefied natural gas tankers reversed course en route to the Strait of Hormuz after Iran warned ship captains that the vital channel is once again closed to maritime traffic.

@JasonMBrodsky And the ceasefire agreement with Iran is scheduled to expire in only a few days from now (April 22).

"U.S. intelligence and military estimates vary, but multiple officials said that Iran has about 40 percent of its prewar arsenal of drones." nytimes.com/2026/04/18/us/…

@IranWireEnglish The cause for this optimism is completely beyond me.

Trump warned the ceasefire with Iran expires Wednesday without a deal, vowing a naval blockade will continue regardless and that enriched uranium will be removed from Iran with or without Iranian cooperation. More: iranwire.com/en/news/151363…

Quds Force Commander Visits Baghdad ──────────── Via "LBC Group" (Lebanon): Ismail Qaani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, is visiting Baghdad to discuss the repercussions of the war in the Middle East and to meet with officials and leaders of armed factions loyal to Tehran, an Iraqi official told Agence France-Presse. Qaani will also discuss the “political deadlock” over the nomination of a candidate for the Iraqi prime minister, following the dwindling prospects of Nouri al-Maliki returning to the post. This is Qaani’s first disclosed foreign visit since a two-week ceasefire took effect on April 8 between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other. Iraq has not been spared the repercussions of the war, which lasted more than 40 days. During the conflict, headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces and pro-Iranian armed factions in Iraq were subjected to airstrikes attributed to the United States and Israel, while U.S. interests were targeted in attacks claimed by Iraqi factions, and Tehran carried out strikes against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in the north of the country. Qaani began “a series of meetings with leaders of political forces and a number of armed faction commanders,” according to a senior Iraqi official, who confirmed that “the meetings address the issue of regional de-escalation and its implications for the Iraqi arena.” He added that the Iranian delegation is also seeking “to coordinate positions among Tehran’s allied forces within Iraq and ensure that the situation does not spiral into a security escalation” in Iraq and the region. The visit was also confirmed by a source in an influential pro-Iranian armed faction, as well as two sources close to the “Coordination Framework” alliance, which constitutes the largest bloc in parliament and consists of Shiite parties close to Tehran. Qaani leads the Quds Force, which is responsible for the Revolutionary Guards’ overseas operations. He has visited Iraq repeatedly since taking over from Major General Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated in a U.S. strike near Baghdad International Airport in January 2020. However, such visits are rarely announced.

@Osint613 It's interesting that he doesn't seem to fear saying this.

WATCH 🔴 Lebanese Shiite scholar Muhammad Ali Al-Fu'ani: The Lebanese government should seek international help to get rid of Hezbollah and its terrorism. Hezbollah should be placed under complete siege until they surrender "or commit suicide and go to hell."

Israel is not about to withdraw from Lebanese territory, so this is - in effect - a declaration of war. Screenshot from Al Jazeera.

@AJEnglish Israel is not about to withdraw from Lebanese territory, so this is - in effect - a declaration of war.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has announced the steps needed for peace, according to Iranian media. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/5ki8w3

Via "Ynet" (Israel) Earlier today, the IDF neutralized a Hezbollah cell that was operating near Israel's front-line defense zone to prevent a direct threat to northern Israeli communities. This was reported by the IDF Spokesman, who stated that “forces from the 401st Brigade Combat Team identified a terrorist cell that violated the ceasefire understandings and approached the forces in a manner constituting an immediate threat. In a swift response to neutralize the threat, the Israeli Air Force struck and eliminated the terrorists. Additionally, south of the front line, the IDF struck an underground tunnel and terrorists from the Hezbollah terrorist organization as they were identified entering the tunnel; a hit was confirmed. The IDF operates in accordance with political directives and is authorized to take the necessary measures for self-defense against threats.”

@Defence_Index Macron blamed Hezbollah.

🇫🇷 French President Emmanuel Macron says one French soldier was killed and three others wounded after an attack targeting UN peacekeepers in Lebanon.

The bold white line marks the international boundary between Israel and Lebanon. The blue region represents the Security Zone established during Israel's occupation of Southern Lebanon during the 1990s. The bright yellow line along the northern periphery of the yellowish-brown region marks the "Yellow Line" often mentioned in Israeli reports, to denote the new front line established during the ongoing Israeli incursion into Lebanon. Via "Channel 13 News" (Israel)

@i24NEWS_HE @YehoshuaYosi Let there be no doubt about THAT.

"הסבירות לחזרה ללחימה באיראן עולה ככל שחולפים הימים" | @YehoshuaYosi bit.ly/3OaPhoL

Displaced Lebanese heading north, towards Beirut from Al-Ghazieh.

@shelbyholliday @mgordonwsj @CostasParis I hope no one was counting on a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

NEW: The U.S. military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in the coming days, according to U.S. officials. W ⁦@mgordonwsj⁩ ⁦@CostasParis⁩ wsj.com/world/middle-e…

@gCaptain That is one effective way to deny claims made by Trump.

Fresh Attacks Shatter ‘Open Hormuz’ Narrative as Iran Pushes New Maritime Regime gcaptain.com/fresh-attacks-…

@Hassan73525137 @HormuzLetter That would make a lot more sense, yes.

@HormuzLetter They're referring to the tweets of trump, idiot.

BREAKING: The IRGC Navy is publicly calling Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi an "idiot" on international maritime Channel 16, broadcasting that the Strait of Hormuz "is still closed" and "we will open it by the order of our leader Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot." He added "All vessels that have a connection with our enemies will be targeted if they try to pass."

This is not a "denial". Hezbollah has not "denied" a single accusation. | Screenshot via @AP

@Amena__Bakr OK, but now they are actively shooting at vessels.

Despite all the grand headlines… it was never opened.

@phildstewart The ceasefire in Lebanon is not going well, either.

Reuters is reporting that Iran is broadcasting this VHF message: "Attention all ships, ​regarding the failure ⁠of the U.S. government to fulfil its commitment in the negotiation, Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz completely ​closed again. No vessel of any type or nationality ​is allowed ⁠to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”